The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

[Keegans Export]

Assuming the PL gets the extra CL spot, will that 5th placed team go straight into the group stage or is there a qualifying round?

[Optimistic Nut]

That Chelsea game is going to be fucking massive. Wouldn't be surprised if that's the game we secure 5th. 

[Stifler]

6 minutes ago, Keegans Export said:

Assuming the PL gets the extra CL spot, will that 5th placed team go straight into the group stage or is there a qualifying round?

Straight into the group stages.

[MagPar]

I keep thinking that Forest will drop out of the race but they just keep on going so it's probably going to go down to the wire.

[Geogaddi]

1 hour ago, Ginola14 said:

Ourselves, Forest and Villa displacing Chelsea, Spurs and MU in the top 6 this season would be very satisfying 

 

Chelsea have been very poor since December, would be nice if Spurs could get a result for a change

 

quite incredible how Spurs are 16 points behind us considering their financial superiority and notions of being a 'big 6' club (at least MU win trophies)

Everyone raves about the job Emery has done at Villa and call him an elite coach which is right . Yet Eddie will have finished ahead of him twice in three seasons if we do this year whilst also winning a cup in that time . Eddie started from a much worse position than Emery as well and we haven't been able to strengthen our squad for two years whilst they also have a much stronger squad now in terms of depth than we do.

[The Fountain]

10 hours ago, mosstef said:

I think we will get at least 7 points from our away games against Leicester, Villa, Brighton and Arsenal. It's our home form I'm worried about. 

If we get 7 away pints then 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat at home will be enough. As long as the defeat isn't Chelsea 

[Skeletor]

38 minutes ago, MagPar said:

I keep thinking that Forest will drop out of the race but they just keep on going so it's probably going to go down to the wire.

 

Yeah I'd say its too late for them to drop out now. But I keep looking at their team on paper and I can't see them sustaining this next season without them somehow circumventing PSR and going on a mad spending spree.

[RodneyCisse]

Looking at the fixtures I expect 15 as a minimum for points.

[Elma]

This weekend is huge for us. Brighton, Man City and Chelsea are all away in derby games. Villa and Forest playing each other and Fulham have Liverpool.

 

The following weekend they are all at home to teams 12th or lower (Villa are away but it's Southampton) while we're at home to Man U, so we need to make hay while the sun shines.

[Kid Icarus]

3 minutes ago, Elma said:

This weekend is huge for us. Brighton, Man City and Chelsea are all away in derby games. Villa and Forest playing each other and Fulham have Liverpool.

 

The following weekend they are all at home to teams 12th or lower (Villa are away but it's Southampton) while we're at home to Man U, so we need to make hay while the sun shines.

So we're all at home to teams 12th or lower.

[Elma]

Just now, Kid Icarus said:

So we're all at home to teams 12th or lower.

 

Very true. 😂

 

For what it's worth I wasn't suggesting we have it tough next week either. Just that this is a weekend we could steal a march. 

[Fatwax]

I think that we arguably have the tougher fixtures remaining out of us, Chelsea, Forest and City. 
 

It’s all opinion, but it’ll certainly be close. 3rd-5th is between us 4 teams currently and 3rd already has a pretty good buffer. Chelsea would be the most likely to slip away out of those 3. Could have done with them losing yesterday to be honest.

[Elma]

1 minute ago, Fatwax said:

I think that we arguably have the tougher fixtures remaining out of us, Chelsea, Forest and City. 
 

It’s all opinion, but it’ll certainly be close. 3rd-5th is between us 4 teams currently and 3rd already has a pretty good buffer. Chelsea would be the most likely to slip away out of those 3. Could have done with them losing yesterday to be honest.

 

Agree that we could have done with them dropping points yesterday, but they still aren't in great form from what I've seen and they technically do have the most difficult run-in of the teams mentioned when you compare the league position and PPG that their remaining opponents have. Plus, they've still to come to St James'.

 

Different techniques used by these two, but similar outcomes - I suspect that unless we have a phenomenally good run-in then Forest and Man City will be difficult to overhaul.

 

https://theanalyst.com/2025/03/premier-league-fixture-difficulty-last-nine-games

 

https://www.premierleague.com/news/4272511

[NSG]

Sky are absolutely gagging for a final day CL shootout since everything else is done and dusted. 

[KingArthur]

18 minutes ago, Fatwax said:

I think that we arguably have the tougher fixtures remaining out of us, Chelsea, Forest and City. 
 

It’s all opinion, but it’ll certainly be close. 3rd-5th is between us 4 teams currently and 3rd already has a pretty good buffer. Chelsea would be the most likely to slip away out of those 3. Could have done with them losing yesterday to be honest.

I think Forest's style suits them playing on the counter against bigger teams. Can see them dropping points against mid table and lower teams.

[Fatwax]

9 minutes ago, KingArthur said:

I think Forest's style suits them playing on the counter against bigger teams. Can see them dropping points against mid table and lower teams.

 

I'd have to have a look - have they dropped many points against these kind of teams so far?

[Fatwax]

20 minutes ago, Elma said:

 

Agree that we could have done with them dropping points yesterday, but they still aren't in great form from what I've seen and they technically do have the most difficult run-in of the teams mentioned when you compare the league position and PPG that their remaining opponents have. Plus, they've still to come to St James'.

 

Different techniques used by these two, but similar outcomes - I suspect that unless we have a phenomenally good run-in then Forest and Man City will be difficult to overhaul.

 

https://theanalyst.com/2025/03/premier-league-fixture-difficulty-last-nine-games

 

https://www.premierleague.com/news/4272511

 

Aye, I'm definitely going more on opinion and a quick scroll of the fixture list than anything else. I do have their great run at the end of last year's league that got them out of the mire in my mind.

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Its quarter of the season to go, you don't need the analysis to know that there really isn't anything in the fixture difficulty overall (not withstanding the complete brain fart results that happen towards the end of each season).

 

In our favour is that we are front loading a nice run of winnable games that 'should' put us in the top 4 at the end of them and a maximum of 1 point behind Forest, but if we do our job more likely we'll be in third after the Ipswich game.

 

Our last 4 are trickier and you wouldn't want to be in 6th going into them, but if we are defending a position then you'd take them.

 

The last barrier facing Forest is what happens if they do get pulled back over the next couple of games, does mental fatigue kick in or do they go again?

[TRon]

13 hours ago, Kid Icarus said:

So we're all at home to teams 12th or lower.

 

They are playing a bit better now tbh. Still look a bit powder puff,  but they have good footballers and they can string some nice stuff together.

[Yorkie]

I'm confident we can get 5th because just recently we're either playing well and winning (Liverpool) or playing average and finding a way (Brighton, West Ham, Brentford - yeah fuck off I'm counting Brighton). That's a good place to be in. 

 

However, I'm also certain that the random vibes of the whole season will continue to the very end. E.g. Brighton being on an exceptional run and then getting twatted 3-0 at home (just one example of many cases of teams suddenly hitting the off-button). 

[KingArthur]

1 hour ago, Fatwax said:

 

I'd have to have a look - have they dropped many points against these kind of teams so far?

Well, they are 3rd so not much  

But I would say we need to win Chelsea and ManU at home, and not lose against Villa. Other games should be fine. Draw against Arsenal and even that one defeat is not a catastrophe.

[ramirez]

2 hours ago, NSG said:

Sky are absolutely gagging for a final day CL shootout since everything else is done and dusted. 

Forest play Chelsea on the last day  as well.

[RodneyCisse]

9 minutes ago, ramirez said:

Forest play Chelsea on the last day  as well.

Imagine Forest claiming that last spot over Chelsea or helping us out by beating them.

[Chicken Dancer]

I actually don't think we will get 7 away from home, but I think we should be getting 15 at home. Realistically we won't win all 5 at home and will probably win more than 1 away, but we do have tough games for sure.

 

If Villa get it then I'd have to concede fair play, being deep in Europe and an FA Cup semi is some distraction. Not worried about Brighton either, though saying that I can't remember us ever playing well at the Amex.

 

I'm assuming Forest are done, so then that leaves us, City, Chelsea & Villa for the final 2 spots.

 

I'm glad we've won the cup as I'm completely relaxed (as opposed to 22/23) about it all. We've guaranteed Europe and we've won a cup. We'd have all shook on that back in August.

[Optimistic Nut]

Beat Leicester, Man Utd & Palace and it buys us a defeat at Villa I reckon. Think if we win 6 we've done it. 

 

If we win 6 out of 9, Villa would need to win 7 out of 8 and Chelsea 6/7 out of 8 to beat us. If they did that, hats off to them. 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Optimistic Nut