The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[GideonShandy]

5 hours ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

 

When's the last time we fell short?  

 

We've been dire for pretty much all of living memory. 

For many of us old enough to remember, the trauma of 1995-96 and the blown 12-point lead still lurks.  The holy grail within reach, but we slowly let it slip. Please God don't let it happen again. It would be too cruel.

[Kid Icarus]

Just looked at Liverpool's 20/21 season and at this point then they were 7th

 

I'm partly trolling like, I am a bit spooked by them but really I just want someone to talk me down. 

[LFEE]

2 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Just looked at Liverpool's 20/21 season and at this point then they were 7th

 

I'm partly trolling like, I am a bit spooked by them but really I just want someone to talk me down. 

I’m not that person unfortunately ? All their injuries are clearing up and they seem to of found a new position for TAA which is working ? 

[Geordie Ahmed]

7 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

For a bit of context too, Monday was Liverpool's first win in five. They've managed to string four wins a row together twice this season, their joint best run to date.

 

That's not to say they're not capable of winning nine in a row, but it's a big ask. 

 

 

 

 

It is a big ask but I think people are "worried" due to their fixtures, they are easy combined with having all key players fit 

 

Ultimately we need to try and focus on ourselves, match what we've done all season and it should be enough to get over the line

 

Hopefully we start it with a comprehensive win on Sunday 

[The College Dropout]

23 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

Spurs is definitely must win for them, not so much for us. 

It’s must win for us for imo.  We need the confidence boost.  A draw makes the other 2 fixtures must win for us. If not for Spurs, for the chasing pack. 

[The Prophet]

5 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Just looked at Liverpool's 20/21 season and at this point then they were 7th

 

I'm partly trolling like, I am a bit spooked by them but really I just want someone to talk me down. 

 

I'll give it a go. At this stage in that season Liverpool had 49 points and Leicester 56. So not too dissimilar to the present situation. 

 

Liverpool went onto to claim 20 points from a possible 24, so they still dropped 4 points in a brilliant run. Even if they repeated that, we'd only need 12 points to better that (giving us a a 12 point margin of error).

 

Leicester went onto to take 10 from their remaining fixtures. I think we know that three more wins would leave us just short of the top four, regardless of who may catch us. 

 

Liverpool overhauled Chelsea too, but Leicester should have been home and hosed. As well as a great run from Liverpool, it would take a similar kind of collapse from us, in which case you'd probably accept that we just didn't have enough in the tank to get us into the top four. 

[The Prophet]

3 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

It’s must win for us for imo.  We need the confidence boost.  A draw makes the other 2 fixtures must win for us. If not for Spurs, for the chasing pack. 

 

Must-win implies that it's not longer in our hands if we don't though. 

[Kid Icarus]

12 minutes ago, LFEE said:

I’m not that person unfortunately ? All their injuries are clearing up and they seem to of found a new position for TAA which is working ? 

 

And yet I've just done the predictor again and I've got us finishing 3rd and Liverpool 5th  I find the waiting between games at this time of year unbearable like, it sends you mental. 

[The College Dropout]

2 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Must-win implies that it's not longer in our hands if we don't though. 

I mean it in a ‘I wouldn’t take 1 point’ if offered now. 
 

It’s still not in Spurs hands if they beat us.  But psychologically it would be massive. 

[The Prophet]

Just now, The College Dropout said:

I mean it in a ‘I wouldn’t take 1 point’ if offered now. 
 

It’s still not in Spurs hands if they beat us.  But psychologically it would be massive. 

 

Ah fair. There's very few games that I'd shake hands on a point pre-gams now. Perhaps City and Arsenal away.

 

I do agree that a win would be a big psychological boost. Six points with a game in hand at this stage would be massive. It would also pretty much end Spurs chances. A draw wouldn't be awful but keeps them in the hunt and gives the chasing pack a sniff.

[Kid Icarus]

20 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

I'll give it a go. At this stage in that season Liverpool had 49 points and Leicester 56. So not too dissimilar to the present situation. 

 

Liverpool went onto to claim 20 points from a possible 24, so they still dropped 4 points in a brilliant run. Even if they repeated that, we'd only need 12 points to better that (giving us a a 12 point margin of error).

 

Leicester went onto to take 10 from their remaining fixtures. I think we know that three more wins would leave us just short of the top four, regardless of who may catch us. 

 

Liverpool overhauled Chelsea too, but Leicester should have been home and hosed. As well as a great run from Liverpool, it would take a similar kind of collapse from us, in which case you'd probably accept that we just didn't have enough in the tank to get us into the top four. 

 

Yeah that's true like. I think realistic worst case scenario I still have us picking up 9 points, so that's still close to where we'd need to be with Liverpool also needing to get at least 19 points +gd to finish ahead of us. 

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

I'll give it a go. At this stage in that season Liverpool had 49 points and Leicester 56. So not too dissimilar to the present situation. 

 

Liverpool went onto to claim 20 points from a possible 24, so they still dropped 4 points in a brilliant run. Even if they repeated that, we'd only need 12 points to better that (giving us a a 12 point margin of error).

 

Leicester went onto to take 10 from their remaining fixtures. I think we know that three more wins would leave us just short of the top four, regardless of who may catch us. 

 

Liverpool overhauled Chelsea too, but Leicester should have been home and hosed. As well as a great run from Liverpool, it would take a similar kind of collapse from us, in which case you'd probably accept that we just didn't have enough in the tank to get us into the top four. 

 

This is the sort of logic I'm taking. Looking at the sort of runs the rest have to go on if we win 4 more games. If we don't win at least 4 from 8 we've not done our part anyway. If anyone else wins their remaining games then they 100% deserve 4th but it'd be unlikely they do that.

[timeEd32]

A lot of my anxiety around finishing 4th is related to Bruno. I think if we aren't in the CL by 2024 he's gone and it may even be hard to hold onto him this summer if we don't make it. If we do I'm very confident he'll stay AND we'll be able to attract better players that could help us cement our place. It's being greedy considering where we were 18 months ago, but the difference between 4th and 5th this season could alter the trajectory of the club for the next few years.

 

On the other hand I know our owners and leadership team are committed to building things the right way. I'm confident we're heading up even though it won't always be a straight line. But we're staring at a massive opportunity.

[RUHRLYASLEEVESUP]

Were 1/3 with most books to finish top 4

 

[LV]

1 hour ago, timeEd32 said:

A lot of my anxiety around finishing 4th is related to Bruno. I think if we aren't in the CL by 2024 he's gone and it may even be hard to hold onto him this summer if we don't make it. If we do I'm very confident he'll stay AND we'll be able to attract better players that could help us cement our place. It's being greedy considering where we were 18 months ago, but the difference between 4th and 5th this season could alter the trajectory of the club for the next few years.

 

On the other hand I know our owners and leadership team are committed to building things the right way. I'm confident we're heading up even though it won't always be a straight line. But we're staring at a massive opportunity.

Bruno (and family) doesn’t look like a man who is thinking about being off mind. He loves it here and he knows it’s a project. 

[Wandy]

2 hours ago, ohmelads said:

I'm confident Liverpool will go on a big run because of their fixtures and returning players.

 

Their next opponents Forest are in horrendous form. Then they travel to West Ham. That's a potentially tricky one depending on which West Ham turn up, but we saw first hand why they're struggling, and that's Liverpool's trickiest away fixture. Brentford (0 wins in their last 5) and Fulham (1 win in their last 6) look like they're already thinking about the beach so it's a perfect time to be playing them now. Villa and Spurs are the other tricky ones but both are at Anfield. Liverpool's other away games are Southampton and Leicester. I think I read they have the best remaining fixtures of any team in the league on paper. People will say look at their form over the season, but Thiago and Jota are back in the fold and there's basically a fully fit squad now. They made the same late season run two seasons ago.

 

They're a far bigger threat than Villa. They've got a game in hand on Villa and go level on pts with a win, and far better GD. Villa's fixtures are far tougher, as are Brighton's (they play Man City, Man U, plus Arsenal away, Villa away, and a cup game against Man U). Neither Villa nor Brighton have the huge squad depth Liverpool do or the number of players with experience of these situations, and to be honest, I don't see them getting the "breaks" from officials/var either when it really matters (look what happened to Brighton).

 

To go on the kind of run Liverpool need, you normally need the kinds of fixtures Liverpool have. 72 points (5 wins and a draw from our last 8) is a big ask but would put us mathematically out of reach of Liverpool, and I wouldn't see anyone matching that. Tottenham is must win for us and I reckon Spurs fans are thinking the same. I think neither side would take a draw if offered.

 

Yeah I agree with this. The dippers will get at least 6 wins from their remaining games so I think we need to win 5 of our matches or we will get pipped.

[Dr Venkman]

13

[Stifler]

There was an outside chance that if Man Utd dropped out of top 4, Chelsea won the Champions League, and Man Utd won the Europa League, and the team who finished 4th wouldn’t get a Champions League place.

[The College Dropout]

12 minutes ago, Stifler said:

There was an outside chance that if Man Utd dropped out of top 4, Chelsea won the Champions League, and Man Utd won the Europa League, and the team who finished 4th wouldn’t get a Champions League place.

No there wasn’t.  That rule changed a long time ago.  

[ilikenewcastle]

4 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

No there wasn’t.  That rule changed a long time ago.  

The rules were changed to allow 5 teams in the Champions League but not 6. Fortunately Chelsea stood 0 chance of winning it this year.

[buzza]

I think this is a “must not lose” game, if we do it will give amped up hope to those just below us and will sow the horrible seeds of doubt into our own team.

Back to basics with longstaff bruno and willock in the middle and miggy and big joe on either flank.

[Ace]

I think while technically it’s not a must win game in terms of whether we can still do it, it feels must win in terms of momentum. 

[Stottie]

Some fun since we play Chelsea

W1-D2-L14. Even Cabbageheed/Cap'n Steakbake never got that bad.

 

I would look for data on our remaining opponents' managers, but they change that often that I don't know their names.

[Froggy]

Mad they used to compare this fraud to OGS.

[Guest]

 Top 4 will be game changing