The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[The Prophet]

I think we can fairly say that it's in "touching distance" now. Get to 70 (four wins or three wins and two draws) and I think it'd be a hell of an effort for any other club to catch us. Villa mathematically can't, Spurs and Liverpool can only drop two more points, while Brighton could afford to drop seven but with hellish fixture congestion and City, Arsenal, Man United, us, Spurs and Villa as 6 of their last 9.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by The Prophet

[Ikon]

After our game against Spurs i've gone from "i don't dare to believe" to i genuinely think we can do it and that there's a very good chance that we make it. Not taking anything for certain quite yet, just game by game.

What gives me the most belief is the momentum and boost in confidence this win most certainly has given us. We'll be far more confident and relaxed now and that will make the world of difference. Swagger is key.

 

I know we had 5 wins in a row before a bad off day against Villa and that it may sound odd mentioning "momentum" when it hasn't even been completely lost really. But the 1st half against West Ham and Brentford

we looked very poor and maybe even a bit fatiqued physically but mostly mentally, and then the Villa game came. No matter how poor Spurs might have been it's still Spurs and we slaughtered them and made them

worse than they are. It's still against a big name team and this win will have us hitting proper momentum and on a different level confidence wise and maybe most importantly allow us to play more relaxed.

 

I'm usually never confident against Everton away but i'm more confident now than ever. Bring em on!

[Smal]

We need 12 points from 7 games I reckon. It'd take something unbelievable from Brighton (23 points from a possible 27) or Liverpool winning all remaining games with a big goal difference for that not to be enough.

 

Win on Thursday and I'll believe. 

[Sima]

11 minutes ago, Smal said:

We need 12 points from 7 games I reckon. It'd take something unbelievable from Brighton (23 points from a possible 27) or Liverpool winning all remaining games with a big goal difference for that not to be enough.

 

Win on Thursday and I'll believe. 

 

Brighton also have to play Man U, Arsenal, Us, Man City and Villa

[Ronaldo]

It won’t take 71 points. 3 wins and a draw will do it. 

[Smal]

5 minutes ago, Ronaldo said:

It won’t take 71 points. 3 wins and a draw will do it. 

yeah, you’re hopefully right. Was talking worst realistic case scenario.

[Dr. TC]

8 minutes ago, Sima said:

 

Brighton also have to play Man U, Arsenal, Us, Man City and Villa

Yeah, I was worried about them until I saw their horrific run in

[The Prophet]

Is this like last year when we'd keep saying "one more win and we'll be safe" but we'd win and it'd be the same again?

[Ikon]

Would be quite nice if WH beat Liverpool on wednesday before we play Everton away. 12 point lead and it's all but done.

[NG32]

10 minutes ago, Ikon said:

Would be quite nice if WH beat Liverpool on wednesday before we play Everton away. 12 point lead and it's all but done.

it would be a massive boost. 

[Skeletor]

13 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

Is this like last year when we'd keep saying "one more win and we'll be safe" but we'd win and it'd be the same again?

 

Always the way with us. Even with the performance yesterday, muscle memory is making me dread the Everton game due to our continuous non-performances at Goodison over the years.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Skeletor

[The College Dropout]

I think we get to 71-74 points and we get CL. I keep saying it - 4-6 points for the rest of the week and the chasing pack give up mentally. Like we finished Spurs off - they will do v. well to get 65 points. They are finished mentally.

 

It's only Liverpool that I think can get 68-71 points best case scenario. They know they can go on big runs so have that mentality. Be good to have them drop points this week so that they lose momentum and hope. 

 

But again - I think we get more points than Liverpool could get in their best case scenario.

[The Prophet]

3 minutes ago, Skeletor said:

 

Always the way with us. Even with the performance yesterday, muscle memory is making me dread the Everton game due to our continuous non-performances at Goodison over the years.

 

 

 

 

Completely agree. Though I do think the Everton match is tricky. They're a poor side, but at Goodison under the light they have a habit of turning these games into scraps.  

[Paullow]

Still keeping an eye on Brighton. Closest odds to us at the bookies (5/1), hard to beat, no FA Cup distractions, win their two games in hand and they are only 4 points behind and still have to play us, so an opportunity (for both).

 

They obviously have a tough run in, and a lot of matches to play, but if Man City beat Arsenal on Wednesday, and then Arsenal draw us (dropped points for both), the title race will effectively be over and their two matches against Man City and Arsenal won't be as daunting as they usually would be. Arsenal deflated and City, despite their massive squad, having their minds on other competitions. Really hope Arsenal get something there.

 

Hopefully Forest get something from them on Wednesday. Us, Liverpool, and Brighton all have similar fixtures in midweek, all away to bottom half sides who are / were in the relegation fight. West Ham are pretty much safe now, but they are also in decent form - hopefully we at least match what those two do in this upcoming game week.

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Paullow

[TRon]

It's daft but I still can't help feeling Liverpool are the only obstacle left to the CL now. I know they aren't likely to win every game, but they have gone on mad winning runs before, and they do have some crazy talent up front. That said, if I'm putting money down on who gets that final slot it's us every time.

[The College Dropout]

15 minutes ago, Ikon said:

Would be quite nice if WH beat Liverpool on wednesday before we play Everton away. 12 point lead and it's all but done.

Any drop points from Liverpool sooner rather than later would be wonderful.

 

If they win the next 2 - they will start to believe they could win them all.

 

However, if we get our 4-6 points - they'll also think we'll get 72+ points.

 

Keep the boys fit. Get ASM back. We'll get their comfortably.

 

Man U have a tough week too. We have the tougher fixtures overall but we should really aim for 3rd. 

[wormy]

I keep forgetting about ASM to come back, too.

 

When he returns will that be the first time we've had the entire core of the first team squad available? Providing no one else ends up out in his place, of course.

[mondonewc]

I really can't see anyway Liverpool can catch us without us imploding which just isn't going to happen. We've lost 4 games all season, they've only won 4 from 16 away and 3 of there last 7 are away. West Ham will be a tough game for them, they're defensively a shambles and West Ham finding some form at the right time, they will drop points for sure and they can't afford to now. Brighton are my only worry and they have games to catch up on and tough one's at that including us up here which we'll be clear favourites to win. We're so close now, two wins this week and it's all but wrapped up. 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by mondonewc

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, Northerngimp said:

it would be a massive boost. 

 

Rice to secure himself CL football next season.

[54]

 

[The College Dropout]

4 minutes ago, Paullow said:

Still keeping an eye on Brighton. Closest odds to us at the bookies (5/1), hard to beat, no FA Cup distractions, win their two games in hand and they are only 4 points behind and still have to play us, so an opportunity (for both).

 

They obviously have a tough run in, and a lot of matches to play, but if Man City beat Arsenal on Wednesday, and then Arsenal draw us (dropped points for both), the title race will effectively be over and their two matches against Man City and Arsenal won't be as daunting as they usually would be.

 

Hopefully Forest get something from them on Wednesday. Us, Liverpool, and Brighton all have similar fixtures in midweek, all away to bottom half sides who are / were in the relegation fight. West Ham are pretty much safe now, but they are also in decent form - hopefully we at least match what those two do in this upcoming game week.

 

 

 

 

They will have to win 7 from 9 to finish top 4. They've not done anything close to that all season.

 

6 minutes ago, TRon said:

It's daft but I still can't help feeling Liverpool are the only obstacle left to the CL now. I know they aren't likely to win every game, but they have gone on mad winning runs before, and they do have some crazy talent up front. That said, if I'm putting money down on who gets that final slot it's us every time.

There are timelines they finish with 68-71 points. I expect more 65-69 and we should get more than that. We should get more than the 71 too tbf.

[Chicken Dancer]

Definitely Liverpool the only team I'm worried about, but we need 13 points to actually guarantee finishing above them. Being ultra conservative;

 

Everton (A) 1

Southampton (H) 3

Arsenal (H) 1

Leeds (A) 1

Brighton (H) 1

Leicester (H) 3

Chelsea (A) 1

 

That's 11, so if Liverpool drop points in 1 game then it should be enough. Realistically we will beat at least one of Everton, Leeds, Arsenal, Brighton & Chelsea, so 13 points (at least) should be a piece of piss.

[Ikon]

3 minutes ago, 54 said:

 

Doesn't work quite as easy as that  Some decisions against us will have helped us gain points in other matches in a way. Coming back after unfair results and all that. Plus i'm sure we have got some decisions lucky too.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Ikon

[Kid Icarus]

All things being equal, we should have lost at home to Bournemouth. Our pen decision for hand ball was a joke tbh. 

[The College Dropout]

Chelsea are like Spurs.

 

Concede 1 early goal and they could concede 4 or 5. Fans booing and leaving. They are not a team and have nothing to play for.