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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

628 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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4 minutes ago, RodneyCisse said:

Would it be more detrimental for Man U or Liverpool to miss out on 4th?

If it would mean Klopp getting sacked, I'd say Liverpool(not seeing that happening though).

 

But with possible new ownership at Man U it would be a big blow for them missing out of CL.

 

Would love it if both misses out and Brighton would end up 4th on last day of the season(with us 3rd of course)!?

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32 minutes ago, Toon No9 said:

If it would mean Klopp getting sacked, I'd say Liverpool(not seeing that happening though).

 

But with possible new ownership at Man U it would be a big blow for them missing out of CL.

 

Would love it if both misses out and Brighton would end up 4th on last day of the season(with us 3rd of course)!?


Would Brighton not need to beat us for a chance of doing that? :lol:

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9 hours ago, Pata said:

You can still over triple your money if you think Liverpool win all their remaining games, in other words it's less than 30% chance. Decent for something that most seem to think is already written in stone.

 

I'd say that's very good odds, aye. I would lump on that if I hadn't already put two separate bets on us missing out on top 4 anyway which was also extremely generous odds (and effectively covers the same thing).

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9 hours ago, Pata said:

There's nothing wrong with our form either, 8-0-2 in last 10 and only behind Man City who have been perfect. Liverpool are 6-2-2 during that span.

 

Haven't Liverpool won their last 6 in a row or something like that though? I did fancy them to win all of their remaining games but they do have a game against Villa to come, and that might be the one they come a cropper.

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Regardless of what percentage we assign to it, I think we all accept there's a chance no matter how small you think it is that Liverpool can catch us. Personally at this stage I still think it's relatively small, others seems to think it's much larger. 

 

You can also assign whatever historical context you want to it to back-up your views. I've seen Keegan's team being overhauled by Man United and Leicester collapsing being used to corroborate negativity and Bobby Robson's side finishing top four and Leicester's title push to reaffirm positivity. You can be as selective as you want in that regard.

 

We're still in a really strong position, three points above 5th with a game in hand is huge with just four games remaining and our fixture list isn't exactly daunting. I've seen nothing in the mentality of the team to suggest we'll collapse now, I think the Villa hiding was an acid test in that regard. In the league at least, we've delt with all of our high pressure games very well to date.

 

Next week, we get an opportunity to put the pressure back on Liverpool in a game that looks a lot like our trip to Goodison Park. Manage the occasion and we should have too much quality for a poor Leeds side. It isn't time for panic stations yet. 

 

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43 minutes ago, TRon said:

 

Haven't Liverpool won their last 6 in a row or something like that though? I did fancy them to win all of their remaining games but they do have a game against Villa to come, and that might be the one they come a cropper.

They have been scraping by with 1 goal victories without being in control of the games at all. 6 wins in a row gives a very wrong impression of their current form imo.

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Not even sure why chance probability is a topic at this point. Various modeling saying one thing, that’s good data point.  But at the end of the day we have a tremendous record this season overall and our body of work the last 10 should give us good hope that we’re in form and can beat the 2 of the 4 teams we play and draw at least 1 of them. 
 

in any case, win Saturday. And keep controlling our own destiny. 

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Only thing making me slightly less confident is the pressure. I thought we lost our heads and composure against Arsenal. I know they are very good. Whether that was because of pressure or not is impossible to say I guess. Hope we can handle it.

 

 

Edited by Ikon

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1 minute ago, Ikon said:

Only thing making me slightly less confident is the pressure. I thought we lost our heads and composure against Arsenal. I know they are very good. Whether that was because of pressure or not is impossible to say I guess. Hope we can handle it.

 

 

 

Arsenal are very good! 

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4 minutes ago, Displayname said:

They have been scraping by with 1 goal victories without being in control of the games at all. 6 wins in a row gives a very wrong impression of their current form imo.

 

It doesn't really, plenty have said they could easily win all their remaining games and that's what they are doing. They've got history for it as well, in general when you have a team with so many good players, they might well win them all. The only way to discount them is for us to win our games.

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3 minutes ago, PauloGeordio said:

Arsenal are very good! 


Yes they are as I said. But we lost our heads and kept giving silly fouls away over and over again all over the pitch. 

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We were a Murphy post hit from going 1-0 up in 2 mins.  We were top of a thigh hit from going up 1-0 again about 6 mins later. 

then one of the best teams in the league beat us. 
 

we need to give our own heads a shake if we can’t get 6-7 points from 12 to play. That’s on us. You rarely get favors when you’re playing with stakes at both ends of the table. 

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All comes down to Saturday for me (obviously mathematically it doesn’t) I think if we beat Leeds it’s a done deal and we get the required points in the next 2 home games. Lose and I think we will miss out. Saturday is huge.

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2 minutes ago, Ikon said:


Yes they are as I said. But we lost our heads and kept giving silly fouls away over and over again all over the pitch. 

That could have been a combination of fatigue, frustration & Arsenal are very good! I don’t think we lost our heads, we kept going trying to get a goal, if it wasn’t for woodwork and good saves it could have been a different result in our favour. Margins, very fine between 2 elite Premiership teams! 

 

 

Edited by PauloGeordio

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If we draw it won’t be the end of the world but we will need 6 from 9 then, with 2 at home and 1 away. Stress ramps up. We just need 7 points lads. 7. And if Liverpool, Spurs, and Brighton drop anything it’s probably less. 

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8 minutes ago, TRon said:

 

It doesn't really, plenty have said they could easily win all their remaining games and that's what they are doing. They've got history for it as well, in general when you have a team with so many good players, they might well win them all. The only way to discount them is for us to win our games.

 

I said they could win all of their games until the end of the season when they had 7 to go. Considering they only have 3 left, I expected them to look better than they have. They still look vulnerable at the back and have not clicked. I thought the quality of player, no other competitions and players back from injury would boost their level. But they've been much luckier than I expected they might need too.

 

I still expect them to win their remaining games but I wouldn't be surpised if they dropped points anywhere along the way. IMO it's been coming.

 

I also still expect us to get 7 points. I think we could get 8-10 realistically.

 

Can't wait for Leeds.

 

 

Edited by The College Dropout

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