The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[GeordieDazzler]

[Coffee_Johnny]

I’m still assuming are aiming for a top six season and have used a way of gauging when we will, on average, pick-up the 61 points likely to be required (average for PL).

Categorising  the teams (mainly on last season’s position) into four tiers and predicting we will pick-up (rounded-up) 9pts from T1 (all tiers ten games except 8 in Tier 1), 16 pts from Tier 2, 18pts from T3, and 19pts from T4 teams. Taking into account the ‘tier’ of the team we play, and whether home or away, and breaking down into the different months the points should be picked-up like shown in the chart below (will be clearer   once we’re a few months in).
 

 

Basically, we should have had 4 points end of August, 11 points end of September, and 16 points by end of October, 21 end of November etc. (I need to check & adjust if games have been moved to a different month). 

[bealios]

Is there any reason why this isn't a "Topfiveometer" given that chances are that (a) that will be CL, and (b) even if it isn't it would still be huge given the extra games etc.? 

 

Don't want to mess up the maths obviously if someone has put the effort in to already set this up, but give how the season has started and how other clubs have looked, I don't think there is anyone other than Man City who look clearly ahead of us - it looks like Man City nailed on, Arsenal probably still a step above, but Man U, Liverpool, Villa, Spurs, Brighton, Chelsea, Brighton, West Ham have looked round about the same level or lower given what we have seen so far. League of 9 for 3 CL spaces after City and Arsenal seems a reasonable upper-end target?

 

Obviously if we win the CL with a domestic cup thrown in, I'd happily accept top 8 as a reasonable achievement. Priorities.  

[Stifler]

Both Lille & Osasuna were knocked out of Conference League tonight.

That means there is a club less from both France and Spain to gain coefficient points this season, which would go towards getting an extra Champions League place.

If we do finish in the top 2 of our group, it would mean that we gain some coefficient over at least 2/3 teams from France, Italy, and Germany, with 1 of those going out of Europe altogether.

[The Prophet]

This next run of fixtures Brentford (h), Sheff United (a), Burnley (h), West Ham (a), Palace (h), Wolves (a) will give us a good idea of where we're at.

[The Prophet]

On 20/08/2023 at 14:58, The Prophet said:

Aston Villa (h) 5-1 v 4-0 

City (a) 1-0 v 2-0

Liverpool (h) 1-2 v 0-2

Brighton (a) 3-1 v 0-0

 

-1 points, +0 Goal difference.

 

[nufc123]

5 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

This next run of fixtures Brentford (h), Sheff United (a), Burnley (h), West Ham (a), Palace (h), Wolves (a) will give us a good idea of where we're at.

9 point from the next three should be on the cards

 

Let see if we are capable of a clean sheet also. Been a long time

 

 

Edited September 2, 2023 by nufc123

[Ben]

Man City are now 2/5 on for the league 

[Ketsbaia]

45 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Not sure if you've already posted similar but this nice-looking upcoming period brought some poor draws last season (with Burnley = Leicester, Sheff Utd = Leeds, Luton = Southampton).

[Guest]

Aye, 2 wins from the next 8 like-for-like games last season in a run where we should be looking at 5-6 wins coming up.

[Ronson333]

We’re doomed, he’s at it again

 

 

[The Prophet]

It's only slightly more mad than some of the takes on here in the last 48 hours.

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Early days but looks like Liverpool will be top 4, chelsea are miles off and both us and ManU struggling a little for form.

 

if Spurs continue as are then they should make up the 4 but it remains to be seen if this is a flashy run or a sign of things to come.

 

Dont see Villa being consistent enough and Europe will distract Brighton.

 

so basically if we get our ass in gear quick smart then there’s an open slot, but the same can be said for Ten Hags motley crew

[Shearergol]

1 hour ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

Early days but looks like Liverpool will be top 4, chelsea are miles off and both us and ManU struggling a little for form.

 

if Spurs continue as are then they should make up the 4 but it remains to be seen if this is a flashy run or a sign of things to come.

 

Dont see Villa being consistent enough and Europe will distract Brighton.

 

so basically if we get our ass in gear quick smart then there’s an open slot, but the same can be said for Ten Hags motley crew

Not fancying West Ham?

[Colos Short and Curlies]

3 minutes ago, Shearergol said:

Not fancying West Ham?

not for top 4

[Anderson]

Aye, reckon City, Arsenal, Liverpool will take 3 spots this season. Assuming 5th gets CL this year, there's 2 spots to share between us, Spurs, Chelsea and Man U, with only Spurs having started well.

 

Those comparisons to last year's fixtures make the last couple weeks a little easier to take. Brentford already feels like a massive game though.

[The College Dropout]

Not being in Europe will be massive for Spurs. As is not being in the CL for Liverpool.  

[duo]

3 hours ago, Ronson333 said:

We’re doomed, he’s at it again

 

 

[The Prophet]

https://theathletic.com/4841812/2023/09/08/newcastle-transfers-howe-pope?source=user-shared-article

 

Wasn't sure where to put this. Part two covers Pope's form, the transfer window and Howe.

[loki679]

 

[Gazzaschicken]

 

[Kanj]

4 matches v 6 matches.  

[BonesJones]

3 hours ago, Kanji said:

4 matches v 6 matches.  

 

And if we win those next two games, we're 2 points better off than last season.

[Myleftboot]

9 hours ago, BonesJones said:

 

And if we win those next two games, we're 2 points better off than last season.

Glass half full,I like your style.

[Gazzaschicken]

13 hours ago, BonesJones said:

 

And if we win those next two games, we're 2 points better off than last season.

With harder fixtures played as well.