The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[black_n_white]

Just now, Ketsbaia said:

Spurs are annoying, like. Was pretty chuffed when Kane left because that at least removed one competitor.... but no.

Funny how it goes, you could argue West Ham have improved since selling Rice too. 

[SUPERTOON]

Im actually very confident of a top 5 finish (hopefully enough for champions league). Just need a bit of luck with injuries. 

[Myleftboot]

Just now, black_n_white said:

Funny how it goes, you could argue West Ham have improved since selling Rice too. 

They replaced him with Alvarez who I thought was shite today.

[Geogaddi]

Spurs have massively out performed pretty much every stat going to be where they are , no way will they keep that up all season.

[Skeletor]

3 minutes ago, Geogaddi said:

Spurs have massively out performed pretty much every stat going to be where they are , no way will they keep that up all season.

 

This is it in a nutshell. They started like this last season then flushed like a turd.

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, Ketsbaia said:

Spurs are annoying, like. Was pretty chuffed when Kane left because that at least removed one competitor.... but no.

 

Still, a 6th-placed finish would be canny.

 

 

 

 

Aye, they'll level out eventually but the points on the board already is huge. They've given themselves room for a little dip.

[Guest]

If we beat Palace and Wolves, I'd fancy us v Arsenal at home going into that with confidence. 

[Vinny Green Balls]

2 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

If we beat Palace and Wolves, I'd fancy us v Arsenal at home going into that with confidence. 

We just look like a top 4-5 team. Considering the form has been there since February 2022, it’s highly unlikely a fluke now. 

[Kid Icarus]

Tbf to Spurs they're actually playing well this time. I'm not sure if top 4 is open for them but last season they didn't belong anywhere near where they were until we howked them.

[AJ9]

There’s a lot more to come from this squad you feel. Should give us hope.

[Vinny Green Balls]

I may be getting ahead of myself, but it certainly feels like we are nearly rot proof now. When we lost 3 in a row, I felt like a typical Howe unbeaten run was around the corner.

[The Prophet]

On 25/09/2023 at 17:26, The Prophet said:

Aton Villa (h) 5-1 v 4-0 

City (a) 1-0 v 2-0

Liverpool (h) 1-2 v 0-2

Brighton (a) 3-1 v 0-0

Brentford home (h) 1-0 v 5-1

Sheffield United (Leeds) (a) 0-8 v 2-2

Burnley (Leicester) (h) 2-0 v 0-0

West Ham (a) 2-2 v 1-5

 

+1 points, +3 goal difference.

 

 

 

 

So a point and a slight improvement on goal difference from the same fixtures last season, not bad.

 

We only took three points from Palace (h), Wolves (a), Arsenal (h) and Bournemouth (a) last season, so plenty of room for improvement.

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by The Prophet

[McDog]

8 minutes ago, Vinny Green Balls said:

I may be getting ahead of myself, but it certainly feels like we are nearly rot proof now. When we lost 3 in a row, I felt like a typical Howe unbeaten run was around the corner.

 

Rot proof? Not sure but one has to admit with the injuries and being unbeaten in 4 in the EPL and sitting atop the CL group of death after two matches plus knocking off a disinterested but deadly Man City in the League cup things are looking pretty good at this point.

[Vinny Green Balls]

5 minutes ago, McDog said:

 

Rot proof? Not sure but one has to admit with the injuries and being unbeaten in 4 in the EPL and sitting atop the CL group of death after two matches plus knocking off a disinterested but deadly Man City in the League cup things are looking pretty good at this point.

I hedged my bets by saying nearly  

[alexf]

I think this season the bottom half is significantly weaker than the top. So I think any games against the expected bottom 10 is must win really. 

 

Because it's looking like all our competitors will likely win those games. Spurs won comfortably with 10 against Luton for example. 

 

However I think the top 7-9 teams on their day could easily beat each other. It's gonna be really close this year who finishes in European places and will depend which teams can put a run together.

 

Being spread across so many competitions hurts us, especially compared to teams like Spurs who literally only have this and potentially the fa cup to think about now. Which was where we benefitted last year. 

 

With the start they have made, but for an massive injury crisis, I wouldn't bet against spurs to potential snatch one of those top 4 places. 

 

Likewise Chelsea are only two points behind us I think and look like they might be turning the corner a little. 

 

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by alexf

[healthyaddiction]

1 hour ago, black_n_white said:

Funny how it goes, you could argue West Ham have improved since selling Rice too. 

The Ewing theory in action.

[Kanj]

10 minutes ago, alexf said:

I think this season the bottom half is significantly weaker than the top. So I think any games against the expected bottom 10 is must win really. 

 

Because it's looking like all our competitors will likely win those games. Spurs won comfortably with 10 against Luton for example. 

 

However I think the top 7-9 teams on their day could easily beat each other. It's gonna be really close this year who finishes in European places and will depend which teams can put a run together.

 

Being spread across so many competitions hurts us, especially compared to teams like Spurs who literally only have this and potentially the fa cup to think about now. Which was where we benefitted last year. 

 

With the start they have made, but for an massive injury crisis, I wouldn't bet against spurs to potential snatch one of those top 4 places. 

 

Likewise Chelsea are only two points behind us I think and look like they might be turning the corner a little. 

 

 

 

however Chelsea haven’t played 5 of the top 7 have they? Or even close? (Genuine question)

[McCormick]

With the relative lack quality of the lower half of the league, the teams who play aggressively and finish their chances will be in and amongst the CL places. We can definitely be one of those teams.

 

The key thing this year though is to win your head-to-heads against your rivals for that spot (and there’s quite a few this season). 

[Guest]

Best goals per minute ratios in the PL (3+ goals)

 

Wilson : 1 in 65 minutes

Isak : 1 in 79 minutes 

Hwang: 1 in 83 minutes

Haaland : 1 in 89 minutes

Ferguson : 1 in 90 minutes

 

Crazy.

 

[Gallowgate Toon]

Spurs' squad, attack-wise, feels thin. Any prolonged injury before January to Son or Maddison feels like it'd cause them a big problem. The latter usually gets something that keeps him out for a month or two per season iirc.

[Jagten]

We are second in Understat's expected points model FWIW (https://understat.com/league/EPL)

[Krabbe2]

Learned last season that 10 points with 6-7 games left in the season can disappear quickly. The games will come often and we just have to avoid getting into a long losing streak. PL is not a sprint but a marathon.

[alexf]

Likewise getting points on the board early helps massively. Allowed us to still finish top 4 despite our mid season blip we had.

 

I feel like if everyone comes back fit soon we could easily go on one of those big winning runs that we had last year. Then it will be down to whether we can maintain while we have other competitions going on and hope other teams hit a rough bit of form.

[Kid Icarus]

We're 2 points up on last season as well.

 

I know it's not anywhere near an exact science but I like doing things like this, it helps me put things in perspective.

 

League:

22/23 (with 21/22 - with promoted teams substituted - and 22/23 final positions in brackets):

Quote

 

Forest W (20, 16)

Brighton D (9, 6)

Man City D (1, 1)

Wolves D (10, 13)

Liverpool L (2, 5)

Palace D (12, 11)

Bournemouth D (19, 15)

Fulham W (18, 10)

 

 

11 points

+4 GD

12 GS

8 GA

7th position 

 

Average of 1.37 points per game against median 21/22 and 22/23 league positions of 11 and 10.5

 

23/24 (with final 22/23 position - with promoted teams substituted - and current position in brackets)

Quote

 

Villa W (7, 5)

Man City L (1, 3)

Liverpool L (5, 4)

Brighton L (6, 6)

Brentford W (9, 9)

Sheffield United W (19, 20)

Burnley W (18, 18)

West Ham D (14, 7)

 

 

13 points (+2 on 22/23)

+11 GD (+7 on 22/23)

20 GS (+8 on 22/23)

9 GA (+1 on 22/23)

8th position (-1 on 22/23)

 

Average of 1.62 points per game against a median 22/23 league position of 8 (6.5 currently)

 

That is crazily high considering that even without Burnley and Sheffield United it only changes to 6.5 (5.5 currently) and the average (generally better when numbers are less extreme) is 4.85!

 

To put that in another way, 6 of our 8 opening fixtures have been on average Title, Champions League or Europa League challenging opposition. That's crazy.

 

Cups

 

22/23

We beat Tranmere away in the league cup.

 

23/24

We've beaten Man City in the league cup

Drawn with AC Milan away

Battered PSG

 

Injuries 

 

22/23

IIRC we only had Krafth and possibly Wilson out injured during that period.

 

23/24

We've had Willock, Botman, Barnes, Wilson, Joelinton, and Krafth out injured during this period

 

To summarise, we have:
 

Quote

 

2 more points

A league position 1 place worse off

A +7 goal difference 

Scored 8 more goals (in one match mainly obviously)

Conceded 1 more goal

The best xG in the league

Matched our league cup status

Added Champions League matches, topping a group of PSG, Dortmund, AC Milan 

 

 

Compared to last season, despite having:

 

Quote

 

Played vastly better opposition in all competitions 

Played more games

Travelled further

Much more injuries overall including with starting players.

A start to the season rated the hardest in the league by far*

Drawn Man City in the League Cup 

Drawn PSG, Dortmund, and AC Milan in the Champions League 

 

 

We're doing very well imo. Most of the signs are good and there's room to improve, less challenging opposition to play, and injured players to return.

 

*

Spoiler

23/24

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Kid Icarus

[Nobody]

Surely it can't be sustainable for Liverpool to go a goal down every fucking game? Really starting to annoy me that.