The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Solitude20]

I don’t see the Spurs match thread up yet, but Son might miss the game for injury. 
 

edit: it’s up now. 

 

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Solitude20

[George Bailey]

Not so much about top four for me ( which I think is beyond us) and more about ensuring we have some form of European competition next season.

Finishing top 7 would be a real positive, especially how bad we have been hit by injuries this season and the resurgence of a couple of other teams.

Personally think top four will be Liverpool, Arsenal, City and Man Utd.

Then it’s Spurs, Villa and us for next three slots with Brighton in the mix.

Next season is a different matter once we can strengthen again though. Probably a bit more expectation and pressure too? But I think the competition is pretty obvious over next few seasons with a few clubs ahead of us already so it’s gonna be a tough one to call as to who gets those 4 spots from about 6/7 strong clubs.

 

(This years CL has been a major bonus to benchmark etc and also enjoyable let’s not forget! But way ahead of schedule as we have said multiple times)

Onwards and upwards…

[brummie]

7 hours ago, George Bailey said:

 

Personally think top four will be Liverpool, Arsenal, City and Man Utd.

 

 

Not saying I necessarily think you are wrong with this, but jesus fucking christ, how tedious would it be to see those finish top four.

[MrRaspberryJam]

Man Utd ain’t getting top four. 

[Geogaddi]

Man United won't be top 4, they remind me of Spurs last season , seem to scrape wins against all the poor teams but it will catch up with them eventually.  They are somehow 6th and nobody knows how or why , they have no plan or tactics or anything , Us and Villa will be above them and possibly Spurs .

[LiquidAK]

If we win a trophy but fail to get into Europe, that will be an utterly ridiculous achievement and I guarantee "his bosses" will be fucking delighted to have brought silverware back to a club so long starved of it.

[Upthemags]

A trophy and eight place in the table would not have the bosses all that happy in my opinion. I think PIF see us as an international team, or at least that's the ambition, which would make European football of the highest order of importance

[The Prophet]

In the Amazon documentary and going into the season, his bosses repeatedly banged home the message that this season was going to be brutal on the squad and there may be a downturn in results. It's almost like they wanted to lower expectations, maybe I missed the subtext...

[LiquidAK]

5 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

In the Amazon documentary and going into the season, his bosses repeatedly banged home the message that this season was going to be brutal on the squad and there may be a downturn in results. It's almost like they wanted to lower expectations, maybe I missed the subtext...

It's like all the "Howe under pressure" shit in the media, in the context of every message that's come out of the club over the last 2 years it's completely baseless.

[Away Toon]

It's a pity we have gone backwards so far this season although a lot of that is down to the injuries we have. For once the league looks pretty wide open with any one of half a dozen teams capable of winning the league.

[Froggy]

45 minutes ago, Geogaddi said:

Man United won't be top 4, they remind me of Spurs last season , seem to scrape wins against all the poor teams but it will catch up with them eventually.  They are somehow 6th and nobody knows how or why , they have no plan or tactics or anything , Us and Villa will be above them and possibly Spurs .

 

We do know how and why. We've won enough games to get enough points to be in 6th.

 

We also do have a plan and tactics. A high press, high turnover style, and if you look at the stats we're top or nearly top for winning possession in the final third and for high turnovers. We've been incredibly wasteful when we have won the ball though, mostly down to Rashford who has consistently given the ball away and then refused to track back which has then put us under pressure.

 

That pressure has come against a makeshift back five for most of the season. We've been missing Wan-Bissaka, Varane, Martinez and Shaw for months of this season alone, and even the back ups (Malacia) and back ups back ups (Reguilon) have spent time on the injury table. Add into this a keeper who didn't settle and made a bundle of errors and you have a very shaky defence letting in a lot of goals. Add into this further injuries to Casemiro and Amrabat and you can see why we've struggled. 

 

Teams have had the chance to put us out of top four contention, but we're within three points and starting to get players back. Performances are improving and we're becoming more clinical. 

 

We're very much in the race now, especially if we go out of Europe next week. 

 

[The Prophet]

Personally speaking, I've been massively encouraged by this season to date. 

 

The main take away for me is we aren't a flash in the pan or a one season wonder. We're a very well coached outfit, with very good underlying data. If it wasn't for the crippling injury crisis I have no doubt we'd be higher up the league.

 

I also think our possession based game has improved as the season has progressed. We actually knock it about and play some nice stuff these days.

 

If I had a grumble, we still look vulnerable to teams who can play through the press (Brighton and Dortmund spring to mind). Whether that is a permanent trade off as a result of the high press or something that will be addressed in our evolution remains to be seen.

[Stottie]

I think we're still doing well. Even our away form looks a lot rosier if you add a 3-0 win at Man U, a draw at AC Milan, and what should have been 1-0 at PSG.

 

The underlying numbers for chance creation, shots, xG etc. all suggest we're still playing in a way likely to win games. Possession is also up on last year. It then comes down to finishing, goalkeeping, and random and semi-random factors like luck, the bounce of the ball, and, decisions.

 

Last 8 in the league, we've been doing better than Tottenham, our next opponents, who famously do not have Europe to contend with.

 

Tonali was a body blow, but Barnes and Wilson should be back soon. I expect Barnes to put up the same numbers as at Leicester, which is a goal or assist every 180 minutes. I could understand the doubts when we bought Gordon, but Barnes is as league proven as they come. For all his limitations, Wilson has become the best moocher in the league, basically a goal magnet.

[Erikse]

8 hours ago, LiquidAK said:

It's like all the "Howe under pressure" shit in the media, in the context of every message that's come out of the club over the last 2 years it's completely baseless.

 

They still think that we are basically PSG. Buying overpaid stars and firing their managers for not winning CL.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Erikse

[Geogaddi]

11 hours ago, Froggy said:

 

We do know how and why. We've won enough games to get enough points to be in 6th.

 

We also do have a plan and tactics. A high press, high turnover style, and if you look at the stats we're top or nearly top for winning possession in the final third and for high turnovers. We've been incredibly wasteful when we have won the ball though, mostly down to Rashford who has consistently given the ball away and then refused to track back which has then put us under pressure.

 

That pressure has come against a makeshift back five for most of the season. We've been missing Wan-Bissaka, Varane, Martinez and Shaw for months of this season alone, and even the back ups (Malacia) and back ups back ups (Reguilon) have spent time on the injury table. Add into this a keeper who didn't settle and made a bundle of errors and you have a very shaky defence letting in a lot of goals. Add into this further injuries to Casemiro and Amrabat and you can see why we've struggled. 

 

Teams have had the chance to put us out of top four contention, but we're within three points and starting to get players back. Performances are improving and we're becoming more clinical. 

 

We're very much in the race now, especially if we go out of Europe next week. 

 

I just don't see it , we have beaten you home and away comfortably on both occasion with half our squad missing or injured . You have scraped wins against the likes of Sheffield United , Luton and Burnley whilst losing at home to Crystal Palace ,  even Man City who have been well off the pace this season and failed to beat anyone else in the top 6 hammered you 3-0 away ,fair enough you might improve but absolutely nothing you have done so far this season suggests you will finish top 4.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Geogaddi

[Ben]

Will Howe sacrifice rather Spurs game to concentrate on AC Milan ?, it looks like it's Feb 3rd before we get any sort of run of easy fixtures.

[Lush Vlad]

13 minutes ago, Ben said:

Will Howe sacrifice rather Spurs game to concentrate on AC Milan ?, it looks like it's Feb 3rd before we get any sort of run of easy fixtures.

The 3 league games to end the year look ok, at least. Assuming we’re not playing Karius on pitch by then. 

[SUPERTOON]

28 minutes ago, Ben said:

Will Howe sacrifice rather Spurs game to concentrate on AC Milan ?, it looks like it's Feb 3rd before we get any sort of run of easy fixtures.

Fulham, Luton and Forest in a row this month is a pretty decent run in fairness.

[Ronaldo]

1 hour ago, SUPERTOON said:

Fulham, Luton and Forest in a row this month is a pretty decent run in fairness.

Would any other team in the top 8 not look to get very close to maximum points from that? 

[Cf]

1 hour ago, Ben said:

Will Howe sacrifice rather Spurs game to concentrate on AC Milan ?, it looks like it's Feb 3rd before we get any sort of run of easy fixtures.

 

Part of me wondered if he'd sacrifice the Milan game. We're dependant on PSG anyway. Booby prize tournament would add even more congestion. In some ways bottom of the group gives us a shot at the league in the second half of the season. 

 

He won't, and nor should he. But it's a conversation that might have happened. 

[High Five o]

8 minutes ago, Cf said:

 

Part of me wondered if he'd sacrifice the Milan game. We're dependant on PSG anyway. Booby prize tournament would add even more congestion. In some ways bottom of the group gives us a shot at the league in the second half of the season. 

 

He won't, and nor should he. But it's a conversation that might have happened. 

I will hate him for that, as I am coming over for the Milan game?

[The College Dropout]

14 hours ago, LiquidAK said:

If we win a trophy but fail to get into Europe, that will be an utterly ridiculous achievement and I guarantee "his bosses" will be fucking delighted to have brought silverware back to a club so long starved of it.

You get into Europe with a trophy.  
 

But deliberately prioritising Cup competitions in December when we are 7th is crazy. And won’t happen.  The best chance of qualifying for the best European competitions is still the league. We are still competitive in the league.  And that will be our priority.  
 

Deprioritising the league in December is silly I’m sorry. 
 

My hunch is Howe will keep playing the strongest team he can and hope players come back to ease the burden. If he does deprioritise a game, i expect it will be the league cup QF.  

[The College Dropout]

22 minutes ago, Cf said:

 

Part of me wondered if he'd sacrifice the Milan game. We're dependant on PSG anyway. Booby prize tournament would add even more congestion. In some ways bottom of the group gives us a shot at the league in the second half of the season. 

 

He won't, and nor should he. But it's a conversation that might have happened. 

If we win, PSG need to win away at Dortmund. I like our chances.  I can’t see us sacrificing Milan.  If PSG are 3 up with 30 minutes to go, I can see us packing it in and subbing star players. 

[The Prophet]

Based on the local press reports Botman, Burn, Longstaff, Willock, Barnes and Wilson aren't a million miles away from a return. They're much needed, we're still two games a week until the new year.

[LiquidAK]

50 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

You get into Europe with a trophy.  
 

But deliberately prioritising Cup competitions in December when we are 7th is crazy. And won’t happen.  The best chance of qualifying for the best European competitions is still the league. We are still competitive in the league.  And that will be our priority.  
 

Deprioritising the league in December is silly I’m sorry. 
 

My hunch is Howe will keep playing the strongest team he can and hope players come back to ease the burden. If he does deprioritise a game, i expect it will be the league cup QF.  

I've not said a word about deprioritising the league. All I'm saying is if we win a trophy but fail to make Europe this year, the owners will see that as a success, certainly not a failure - none of this happens in isolation, they're well aware of the unprecedented number of injuries we've got to a squad that was already thin.

 

Howe will take us into every game in every competition with a line-up he thinks can win.