The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Kid Icarus]

 

Canny interesting this. The devil's in the details but it really underlines us needing to refresh our defence. Mad to think that if we were having a 22/23 season now we'd be 2 points behind Arsenal. 

[KingArthur]

If we win home games, that should be enough certainly? Then 1-2 good results away 

[TRon]

3 hours ago, Unbelievable said:

If you want to see us compete in the long run, which you seem rather hung up on, CL qualification is vital. I obviously want us to win the final, but to suggest if we win the final out PL finishing position doesn’t matter anymore (which is what Stifler said) is very shortsighted I’m afraid.

 

Getting CL is more important to our growth than a Carabao Cup win in my books as well. Yes for me personally, I would cherish the cup win more, but for the good of our growth I honestly think CL is more important if we want to keep our best players.

[ChrisMcQuillan]

8 minutes ago, KingArthur said:

If we win home games, that should be enough certainly? Then 1-2 good results away 

 

We're third in the league in away form this season with 7 wins.

 

7 wins at home, as well, but 11th in the home table.

[TBG]

Europe still on then? Thought it was off after a defeat.

[Kid Icarus]

6 minutes ago, KingArthur said:

If we win home games, that should be enough certainly? Then 1-2 good results away 

20 points (17 if it includes beating Chelsea) from the 30 available gets us 5th imo. 

[The College Dropout]

3 hours ago, NEEJ said:

We'll get a minimum of 18 points from the last ten games, of that I'm confident. A couple of extra points here and there and we'll finish 5th. 

I think 21 points will get us 5th. 18 leaves it to other teams not performing.

 

No point debating what's better CL or League Cup. One doesn't directly impact the other.

[Keegans Export]

2 hours ago, Unbelievable said:

Why do so many posters assume I would rather we qualify for CL than win the league cup, when what I am actually saying is we shouldn’t be satisfied if we win a cup, and chase CL qualification for all we’ve got as that will ultimately benefit the club more going forward? I want both and I don’t think the rhe rest of the season is immaterial should we win on Sunday. We have CL qualification in our grasp; it’s important that we capitalise on this opportunity.

 

I understand what you're saying completely and I don't think the players or Howe will think "job done" and down tools. I also agree that in the immediate future, CL qualification will be more of a boost than winning the League Cup and finishing outside the CL places.

 

Having said that, if we win a trophy, while I wouldn't go so far as to say the rest of the season would be "immaterial", I can't see myself being disappointed come the end of May regardless of where we finish. We've had amazing teams, players etc. we've had multiple Champions League seasons and never won anything. Obviously being in the CL regularly = more money = better players = more chance of winning stuff but if we win on Sunday I'll have seen a Newcastle United captain lift a trophy and that is literally the only thing I want to see before I die. 

 

So yeah, maybe "immaterial" isn't the right word but it's hard to imagine what could happen (football-related...) between winning on Sunday and the end of the season that I means wouldn't still be on a high.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

What positions are likely for the non-CL competitions? 

[El Prontonise]

11 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

What positions are likely for the non-CL competitions? 

 

5th/6th Europa league, depending on if England gets a 5th CL place.

 

Then it depends on the cup winners again.

 

 

Edited yesterday at 12:13 by El Prontonise

[Yorkie]

Is Europa two entrants guaranteed? So, the FA Cup winners and whoever finishes 6th (assuming 5th is CL)?

 

And then Conference League is limited to one entrant, so the winners of the Carabao OR whoever finishes 7th? 

[Stifler]

3 hours ago, Unbelievable said:

It’s not about “getting in Europe” though, is it? Massive difference between CL and the other European competitions in terms of revenue and exposure. If we want to keep the likes of Isak and add quality over the next few years, CL qualification is going to be vital.

The thread is titled ‘The Europometer’.

I stayed within the confines of the definition/purpose of the thread.

[Stifler]

5 minutes ago, Yorkie said:

Is Europa two entrants guaranteed? So, the FA Cup winners and whoever finishes 6th (assuming 5th is CL)?

 

And then Conference League is limited to one entrant, so the winners of the Carabao OR whoever finishes 7th? 

Yeah.

[El Prontonise]

6 minutes ago, Yorkie said:

Is Europa two entrants guaranteed? So, the FA Cup winners and whoever finishes 6th (assuming 5th is CL)?

 

And then Conference League is limited to one entrant, so the winners of the Carabao OR whoever finishes 7th? 

 

Yes.  

[AyeDubbleYoo]

What happens if the cup winners are already in the CL. Goes down to 7th and 8th the conference? 

[The College Dropout]

Top 5 CL

6 & 7 Europa

8 Conference

 

Assuming a team that qualifies for a bigger Euro comp via league wins the Cup. Need Man City to win FA Cup (assuming they finish in the top 6). 8th will get Conference if Liverpool win or we win and qualify for a bigger euro comp.

 

Edit: At this point Forest winning the FA Cup might be advantageous too. I can't see them finishing below 6th from here so they will qualify for the Europa or CL anyway.

 

 

Edited yesterday at 12:39 by The College Dropout

[The College Dropout]

Brighton's next 4 games are huge.

 

City (A)

Forest (FA Cup - H)

Villa (H)

Palace (A)

 

Probably need them out of the FA Cup. As they are unlikely to finish in the top 6.

We probably want them to lose to City. Lose to Forest. Draw Villa. Lose Palace.

 

4 points from those will keep them in the pack. 6 points or more would be excellent.

[Paully]

European football next season will be confirmed at 6.24pm on Sunday!

[SteV]

58 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

What happens if the cup winners are already in the CL. Goes down to 7th and 8th the conference? 

https://www.archivebuttons.com/articles?article=https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6187887/2025/03/11/uefa-premier-league-11th-qualify/

[SUPERTOON]

Where does this Liverpool result leave the extra champions league spot ?

[SteV]

11 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Where does this Liverpool result leave the extra champions league spot ?

Doesn’t really make any difference. It’s 99% assured.

[The Fountain]

13 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Where does this Liverpool result leave the extra champions league spot ?

England still pissing it. 

[The Fountain]

16 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Where does this Liverpool result leave the extra champions league spot ?

This is a good explanation 

 

https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/43040290/the-race-five-places-next-seasons-champions-league

[et tu brute]

Forest have a decent game at the weekend, I honestly think they will finish in the top 4 as they are like us a couple of year ago, where they're just not having a run of bad/losing games. Chelsea have had two great games just gone, but have not pulled away either. I think fourth and fifth will be between City, Chelsea, Us and I still wouldn't rule Villa out either. City you would expect will take one of the spots, though they are still tripping up regularly. Arsenal are lucky they have such a gap as they look relatively toothless up front and the gap has reduced a bit with their current form. 

[alexf]

Bournemouth's fixtures look favourable aswell and can see them picking up a good haul from their next few. 

 

It really is going to be impossibly tight and unfortunately leaves very little room for slip ups. If you drop points there's 4-5 teams that can take advantage.