The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Displayname]

12 minutes ago, Superior Acuña said:

I’m not counting our chickens for Wolves and Leicester at home. Those are exactly the kinds of games we’ve struggled in - mediocre to decent teams that are not ‘big clubs/games’.  Leicester were so shit that it wasn’t an issue. Hopefully it’ll be different for the new us. 

We just won 6 in a row against (below) average teams bro.

And we made most of them look shit.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 19:25 by Displayname

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Chelsea and Forest at home could be big

[Superior Acuña]

5 minutes ago, Displayname said:

We just won 6 in a row against (below) average teams bro.

And we made most of them look shit.

 

 

 

The last three were all games that felt like big ones against big rivals who’d want to try and beat us, even if the last two are currently mediocre. I’m not totally confident it will be the same in a flat, expectant SJP against organised Wolves and Bournemouth teams coming to protect a point. Not disputing we’ve been class or could beat them but think this will be different to most games in this run, and being back memories of West Ham, Brighton. ‘Easy’ games often don’t turn out easy even if we’re winning bigger ones. 

[Holloway]

3 hours ago, Holloway said:

2nd is up for grabs this season

Yep

[SteV]

16 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

Chelsea and Forest at home could be big

Indeed. And you feel super confident about us at home against anyone playing like this.

 

It’s mad how it can all turn like. Before Boxing Day we were 9 points behind Chelsea with a run of:

Villa (h)

Man Utd (a)

Spurs (a)

 

Whereas they had:

Fulham (h)

Ipswich (a)

Palace (a)

 

Now we’re 1 point behind behind them 🤯

[PRL]

Arsenal’s fixture list for the next month is heavy. Champions League is back, have us twice in the league cup, Mancs in the FA cup and Villa, Spurs, Wolves away and Man City in the league. All without Saka. 5 points is a lot to pull back but being purely rational it’s not beyond the realms over the next month when comparing the outlooks. Football rarely goes as expected in the short term tho. 

[Holloway]

with the pissy knickers types, it now comes down to struggling against inferior teams with low blocks etc zzzzzzzzzz. This is the best version of us seen so far and we are on the rampage now, just sit back,relax and fill ya boots

[t00nt00n313]

I'm at the weirdly optimistic stage now where I think its unlikely we don't get top 6 this season. Question is whether we can get top 5 or even top 4 and well I guess we will see as its definitely possible.

[Dr Venkman]

This run has set us up very very nicely. 5th is ours to lose now and I think we’ll finish higher if we keep the important players fit.

[TRon]

5 hours ago, Holloway said:

2nd is up for grabs this season

 

Can't count it out.

[Paullow]

Crazy how quickly things can change, this time only two weeks ago on Saturday 21st, well 2 weeks and 7 hours ago, we were 11 points behind Chelsea and about to embark on the following festive fixtures:

 

Ipswich (A)

Villa (H)

Man Utd (A)

Spurs (A)

 

While in the same period, they had:

Everton (A)

Fulham (H)

Ipswich (A)

Palace (A)

 

You'd think if anything they would pull further clear, and we'd do very well to match their results. Yet two weeks later we've cut that 11 point gap to just 1 point and still have them to play at home. I was definitely in the mindset that they top 3 or 4 had 'gone' and we were battling with the likes of Villa, Man Utd, Tottenham and one or two others for 5th or 6th place, yet we've managed to beat 3 of those in succession.

 

[Paullow]

1 hour ago, SteV said:

Indeed. And you feel super confident about us at home against anyone playing like this.

 

It’s mad how it can all turn like. Before Boxing Day we were 9 points behind Chelsea with a run of:

Villa (h)

Man Utd (a)

Spurs (a)

 

Whereas they had:

Fulham (h)

Ipswich (a)

Palace (a)

 

Now we’re 1 point behind behind them 🤯

 

I honestly swear I did not see this post  , but you can bring it back a few days further and include their draw against Everton as well.

[SteV]

6 minutes ago, Paullow said:

 

I honestly swear I did not see this post  , but you can bring it back a few days further and include their draw against Everton as well.

😂 Aye, true. Interesting that if you look at Leicester under Maresca last season, they were on for some kind of record points total, then had a mad dip to the point it looked like they might completely fuck it. He sorted it in the end, but it took him a good while.

 

That would be a bit of a concern if I were a Chelsea fan.

[Paullow]

2 minutes ago, SteV said:

😂 Aye, true. Interesting that if you look at Leicester under Maresca last season, they were on for some kind of record points total, then had a mad dip to the point it looked like they might completely fuck it. He sorted it in the end, but it took him a good while.

 

That would be a bit of a concern if I were a Chelsea fan.

Aye, I used to browse FoxesTalk occasionally around that period and remember a lot of their fans wanting him out and that he wasn't the man etc.

[alexf]

I hope everyone keeps their heads once we inevitably drop points again. Things like 7 game winning run records are "records" for a reason. It's hard to do in this league and as we have shown many times this season he games against the "lesser teams" have caught us out before. 

 

Wolves for example have had a new manager bounce, will have Cunha back after a suspension(rest) and we might have exerted ourselves with a tough away game at arsenal plus most of the same 11 having played almost all games over Dec/Jan. 

 

So hopefully the home crowd will roar us home in the upcoming tricky fixtures and not turn up expectant. 

 

We are also a Isak/Tonali injury away from being severely weakened. So I'm determined to enjoy the good because things can turn quickly. 

 

Hopefully we ride our luck and have a great 2nd half of the season.

[M1tche]

I think we'll finish 3rd. 

 

Chelsea are such a weird team, they go through phases of being brilliant and then crap. They've also now got the problem of having played everyone once, so teams won't be shocked by anything they do anymore, then the question is on Maresca to find a slight tweak that works. 

 

Us and City will be abit of a mirror until the end of the season getting close to, if not the exact same amount of points in the games remaining. 

 

Forest will drop off, when the goals dry up slightly the close wins turn to draws, and I think more teams will allow them to have the ball to stop the transition danger. 

 

 This is a major chance for us 

[Wolfcastle]

Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City - definite CL for me

Chelsea probably 4th - were probably the most likey if not so by definition 5th 6th. Heard Villa weren't clever today and the first half an absolute stinker with Forest that'll likely be the teams with the pecking order up fror grabs - no offence to Fulham and Bournemouth, who'll probably finish ahead of Spurs and Man United

[Holloway]

Nowt definite about man city or Chelsea for top 4, we are every bit as good as them, and we have that massive Newcastle thing- momentum 

[SteV]

1 hour ago, alexf said:

I hope everyone keeps their heads once we inevitably drop points again. Things like 7 game winning run records are "records" for a reason. It's hard to do in this league and as we have shown many times this season he games against the "lesser teams" have caught us out before. 

 

Wolves for example have had a new manager bounce, will have Cunha back after a suspension(rest) and we might have exerted ourselves with a tough away game at arsenal plus most of the same 11 having played almost all games over Dec/Jan. 

 

So hopefully the home crowd will roar us home in the upcoming tricky fixtures and not turn up expectant. 

 

We are also a Isak/Tonali injury away from being severely weakened. So I'm determined to enjoy the good because things can turn quickly. 

 

Hopefully we ride our luck and have a great 2nd half of the season.

Overall point agreed, but there’s over a week between Arsenal and Wolves, and assuming we make substantial changes for Bromley, everyone should be fine.

[Heron]

2 hours ago, Dr Venkman said:

This run has set us up very very nicely. 5th is ours to lose now and I think we’ll finish higher if we keep the important players fit.

Yep this is my general feeling now.

 

I'd like to think we get 12 points over our next 4 league games. My expectation would be to at least get 6 points and go unbeaten in the next 4 (league) games.

 

Southampton are woeful, that has to be 3 points. I'd be disappointed not beating the others at home nowadays though.

 

That'd have us on 47 points with 42 left to play for...

[timeEd32]

8 hours ago, Turnbull2000 said:

I would take a monumental run to get 4th. Pool, Arse (pretty much certainly), City and Chelsea (likely) will have those spots. It's hard to compete with these when their expenditures are more than double ours.

Not sure why Chelsea would be penciled in for anything given their current form. 

[Dr Venkman]

9 hours ago, alexf said:

I hope everyone keeps their heads once we inevitably drop points again.

[STM]

On 27/12/2024 at 15:16, STM said:

66 points is average for 5th over the last 5 seasons.

 

66 points over 38 games averages as 1.73 PPG.

 

We are currently sitting at 1.61 PPG.

 

You could look at that and say that we are performing below the required level, or you could look at it and say, given our inconsistency, it's a miracle that we are so close to the target.

 

Personally, and this is just my opinion, if we continue to perform at this level we will absolutely smash that target. The level we have played at in the last 4 (including the cup) games is easily top 4 material IMO.

 

Ok, so we played 3 lower end sides but we didn't just beat them, we actually brushed them aside, which is what top 4/5 sides have to do.

 

I think what will make or break this challenge is:

 

a) how we perform in our tough away games: Liverpool, Man Utd, City, Spurs, Villa and Arsenal.

 

b) when we do drop points, how we respond to it. For example, if we go to Arsenal and get beat, there's no shame, we just need to get back up and go again.

 

c) injuries. So far this season we've done well injuries wise, how do we cope of we miss Isak for a month or Tonali and so on. Botman (and Lascelles) returning and dare I say Wilson at the back end of the season, could be crucial.

 

 

 

An update on this. We are now on 1.75 PPG against a target of 1.73 PPG (for 5th and likely champions league).

 

Personally I think that's now the minimum we should aim for.

[Elliottman]

Our next 4 games have the potential to put us in a great position to finish top 4. 3 games at home and Southampton away. 
 

Keep everyone fit and we have a great chance. 

[Yorkie]

Feels incredibly like it's in our grasp now given the fixtures ahead. Chewsea needs to present a cautionary tale though. They've been going great guns for months, looking arguably like the only other title contenders, but form can disappear in a moment. There's a serious mental challenge ahead of us now to maintain this brilliant run; we will drop points somewhere along the line so we need to ensure that doesn't derail us.