The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[buzz]

5 hours ago, Alberto2005 said:

 

I've got us coming 8th 😂

 

I tried to be a bit harsher on us not to be biased.

 

Looks like I've gone a little OTT on Villa, and no idea how Chelsea are 3rd 😂 but I think it shows from a fixtures on paper point of view we've probably got the toughest run.

 

 

 

 

 

I had us in 7th in a little group with Villa and Bournemouth all very close in points to each other. But some way off the CL places

[Matt1892]

I had us finishing 6th on 66 points, but there was only 2 points separating us, Chelsea, Bournemouth and Forest in the 4th - 7th positions.

My first attempt had us at 5th on 66 points, but randomly Villa only had 55 points so did it again.

 

 

Edited Sunday at 15:28 by Matt1892

[ramirez]

7th and Villa or someone beating Man City in the cup final would be a kick in the teeth, again.

[TRon]

Honestly felt like a CL was ours for the taking before the Bournemouth defeat. Never really thought Forest's form would hold up, and I hadn't even considered Bournemouth a threat before they dismantled us with a team struggling with injuries. We are still in there thanks to that incredible run of wins, so at least we know we are capable of putting them together.

[Miggys First Goal]

I'll take any kind of European football. Champions League. Europa League. Conference League. Don't care as long as we're in Europe.

[Ronaldo]

25 minutes ago, ramirez said:

7th and Villa or someone beating Man City in the cup final would be a kick in the teeth, again.

7th likely to be Europa league this year instead of that Conference guff, right?

[TRon]

7 minutes ago, Miggys First Goal said:

I'll take any kind of European football. Champions League. Europa League. Conference League. Don't care as long as we're in Europe.

 

CL football and a big spend on upgrading the squad is what will keep our best players here. I think another season of treading water and we'll start seeing some itchy feet.

[ramirez]

20 minutes ago, Ronaldo said:

7th likely to be Europa league this year instead of that Conference guff, right?

7th would be bumped to conference if a team below us won fa cup. 

[Ketsbaia]

Just spreadsheeted a prediction based on us beating Forest and got:

 

4th - Forest (66)

5th - Chelsea (65)

6th - Newcastle (62)

7th - B'mouth (61)

8th - Villa (61)

 

Was surprised at Chelsea but they still have the three promoted sides to play at home. Have Bournemouth down for a quite a few draws, too.

 

There's probably a bit of pressure to reach Champions League to keep players but maybe Europa/Conference are our best chances of finally winning a trophy, domestic or not.

[Elma]

If I were a betting man I'd have put money on Bournemouth getting a Champions League place after witnessing them against us last month. I haven't changed my opinion since.

 

Weve got more chance of finishing above Forest or Chelsea than them. I also don't think Villa have enough.

 

My gut says us in 6th. Realistically we need to go at least 8-3-2 to have a chance of fifth. We'll definitely be in Europe though. Just not sure which comp.

[M1tche]

I reckon we win 8-10 of remaining games, including next Sat. Which get us Champs league I reckon. Without doing the exact maths,  we'll end on 68-73 points. 

 

 

Edited Sunday at 19:18 by M1tche

[alexf]

I always felt the media and some fans were getting way too carried away with our winning run. It was a great bit of form but we were exceeding our levels.

 

The squad is too thin and there was always going to be a drop in energy and ability to keep things fresh. 

 

Reality is we properly are around the 8th - 9th best team but we have a better striker than most.

 

The Tonali position change really helped inject energy into that winning run we had, but teams quickly work out counter tactics , and if we look at that run, there were quite a few teams we played at the perfect moment. 

 

Remaining fixtures are going to be tough and we need to fix our recent home form this weekend as it's a 6 pointer. 

 

 

[janpawel]

51 minutes ago, alexf said:

I always felt the media and some fans were getting way too carried away with our winning run. It was a great bit of form but we were exceeding our levels.

 

The squad is too thin and there was always going to be a drop in energy and ability to keep things fresh. 

 

Reality is we properly are around the 8th - 9th best team but we have a better striker than most.

 

The Tonali position change really helped inject energy into that winning run we had, but teams quickly work out counter tactics , and if we look at that run, there were quite a few teams we played at the perfect moment. 

 

Remaining fixtures are going to be tough and we need to fix our recent home form this weekend as it's a 6 pointer. 

 

 

Imo Liverpool, Arsenal, City and Chelsea (on paper) have better first 11 and squads compared to us 

 

I think we have better first 11 and squad than Bournemouth, Forest, Brighton and Man U

 

I don't think there's much between us and Villa, I think we have the better 11 but they probably have  better squad depth 

 

I'd take our 11 / squad over Tottenham's too tbh

 

 

 

 

[Tiresias]

1 hour ago, alexf said:

I always felt the media and some fans were getting way too carried away with our winning run. It was a great bit of form but we were exceeding our levels.

 

The squad is too thin and there was always going to be a drop in energy and ability to keep things fresh. 

 

Reality is we properly are around the 8th - 9th best team but we have a better striker than most.

 

The Tonali position change really helped inject energy into that winning run we had, but teams quickly work out counter tactics , and if we look at that run, there were quite a few teams we played at the perfect moment. 

 

Remaining fixtures are going to be tough and we need to fix our recent home form this weekend as it's a 6 pointer. 

 

 

 

Largely agree though I'd say 9th would be a bit low for where we are, but we aren't consistent enough across the season. It's very difficult to finish top 4 and we dont deserve it for playing at a high level over the Christmas period, we need to do it for longer. A lot of the other teams in similar spots also have reasons they may drop points so not going to give up now. 

[Smal]

 

(just scroll past if you don’t like xG)

[TRC]

Think we finish 7th which should give us Europa if Man U or Villa don't win the FA Cup. I did a predictor with us locked into 7th 4 points ahead of 8th, and with 4th-6th all finishing on 68 points.

[ramirez]

5 minutes ago, TRC said:

Think we finish 7th which should give us Europa if Man U or Villa don't win the FA Cup. I did a predictor with us locked into 7th 4 points ahead of 8th, and with 4th-6th all finishing on 68 points.

Even then 7th would get Europe if England gets extra space, unless win league cup, which obviously gets us Europe anyway. 

[TRC]

2 minutes ago, ramirez said:

Even then 7th would get Europe if England gets extra space, unless win league cup, which obviously gets us Europe anyway. 

Yep I have it as top 5 get CL, 6th Europa, 7th is Europa or Conf League depending on FA Cup Winner.

 

If Man U win the FA Cup again and screw us.....

[TRon]

48 minutes ago, TRC said:

Yep I have it as top 5 get CL, 6th Europa, 7th is Europa or Conf League depending on FA Cup Winner.

 

If Man U win the FA Cup again and screw us.....

 

If the top 4 is Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea (which looks debatable) who would finish 5th and 6th?

 

 

[ramirez]

Imagine the ructions when we get 10 k tickets for a Europa/conference final in besiktas/leipzig.

[Kaizero]

I get that sometimes a team theoretically could benefit if they "lucked out" with the timing of certain fixtures on their scheduled, such as if they get to face an out-of-form opponent instead of an in-form one – and how that could give the impression that a team's set of remaining fixtures could make it seem like they'll have it easier than other teams. However, I refuse to acknowledge this as being meaningful in the grand scheme of things whatsoever... Every team plays all 19 opponents twice, home and away. Any points gained from those fixtures will, when the season is done, be tallied up with the points teams gain from all the other fixtures they've played against the other teams throughout the season.

Yes, sometimes a team will end up playing a "tough" opponent at a time where circumstances are kind to them and offer up a tiny bit of an advantage when comparing the fixture "Team Us vs. Team Tough" with the equivalent fixture, "Team Not-Us vs. Team Tough", for the other teams. At the end of the day, 99.99% of the time – even if a team should luck out and be given a one in a million set-up for success through pure, random, circumstantial chance – to the degree a person could look back at a completed season and point to that particular fixture as having been an advantageous one when comparing it to the same fixture for all the other teams. But when spread out across a complete season, any circumstantial advantage gained from when any one particular fixture ended up being scheduled for will inevitably balance out, because just the same way as you felt your team got "lucky" with when a specific fixture ended up being scheduled for – teams you feel your team should defeat will be looking at your team, thinking exactly the same thing you thought your team got lucky with when they played a "tough" opponent.

 

I can accept that there are moments in any team's fixture list where you could realistically be "lucky" with when the fixtures were scheduled, to the degree it'd actually manage to make a tiny, tiny, bit of difference compared to other teams. Those fixtures t are either among the first matches of the season (if your team's prepared and up to full fitness vs. "tough" opponents perhaps not being equally prepared going into the season, perhaps even lacking when it comes to 100% fitness). That "advantage" is pretty much impossible to replicate/even out, even over a full season, if you somehow managed to get the beyond belief amount of unrealistic luck required for that scenario to become reality. You can also include the last two-three matches of the season if your team still has something to play for and ended up getting two-three teams scheduled to play you that no longer have anything but honor to play for, with their players most likely already mentally checked out and well on their way to complete planning their summer holiday. 

 

One factor that realistically could provide your team with a scenario where you could be given some form of advantage in a fixture, when comparing it to the other teams playing the same one, would be if you somehow ended up having even more luck with when you got scheduled to play out a fixture against a "tough" opponent and saw the fixture end up being a "damp squib" in the "tougher" opponents own fixture list. An example of such a fixture being set to occur is just around the corner, as Brentford will be playing Villa just four days after the first R16 CL leg, which already came just four days after Villa will have played Chelsea in the FA Cup, and the second leg in the CL R16 taking place only three days after the Brentford fixture. With Villa being placed where they currently are in the league, potentially still competing in both the FA Cup and the CL, I'd say it'd be more likely than not that Villa would use the opportunity to rest key players against Brentford – which would give Brentford an advantage other teams playing the same fixture at a different point of the season wouldn't be able to replicate.

 

Even then, a single favorably timed match is unlikely to significantly impact the final standings. Unless blatant fixture manipulation occurs (which would be obvious and widely discussed/criticized), any perceived advantages will almost certainly even out over the season – like they always have.

 

TL;DR: I can’t stand the feeling that the majority of football fans begin obsessing over fixture lists and remaining "strength of schedule" at the exact same time of the season, every season, heading into the final third. Every team plays the same opponents, and every team play them twice. When a "tough" fixture is scheduled to be played didn't matter before the season began, it hasn't mattered during the season so far and it won't matter when the season is done. The only thing that actually matters (If you want to finish as high in the table as possible) is that you have to get results. No matter when you play a team – if you want to finish higher up in the table than others when the season is over –  is that you get results when you play matches. It matters fuck all when you play or who you play against – because everyone will play the exact same fixtures, once home and once away.

[TRC]

1 hour ago, TRon said:

 

If the top 4 is Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea (which looks debatable) who would finish 5th and 6th?

 

 

I had Bournemouth, Forest and Chelsea level on points. 4th - 6th.

 

I had us losing to Chelsea, and drawing with Forest in my predicitions, but they are too tight games and if I tweaked those two results then we finished 5th.

[tinoasprilla]

Got us 4th (68) 2 points ahead of Chelsea and 3 points ahead of forest and Bournemouth.  That just tells me I’m proper biased 

 

also had Arsenal (88) only a point behind Liverpool (89)

 

City 3rd on 81

 

 

[TRC]

1 hour ago, tinoasprilla said:

Got us 4th (68) 2 points ahead of Chelsea and 3 points ahead of forest and Bournemouth.  That just tells me I’m proper biased 

 

also had Arsenal (88) only a point behind Liverpool (89)

 

City 3rd on 81

 

 

68 should guarantee CL providing we don’t drop points to both Forest and Chelsea

[Slim]