Erikse Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 If 5th gets CL, does that mean that 6-7th could get Europa League and that 8th place could get Conference League? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 19 minutes ago, OoOGazOoO said: Had another look last night, we are 11 points behind 4th already, and I imagine that is going to get worse before better. There's chuff all chance we are getting top 4, it'll be 7th or 8th I think How many points do you think will be needed to finish 4th? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duo Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Top four is already sewn up - Villa's form this season is nailed on top four for me. Even if 5th place has CL spot this year I think it is a tall ask - we would have to invest at the levels we did in Jan 22 to have any chance which seems unlikely. I see us finishing 7th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohmelads Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Half a season left to play. Clearly there's a tough month ahead and it will likely get worse before it gets better, but if there's a regression to the mean, we should have fewer injuries in the coming months while some clubs will have more. No one in the country has had injuries or cup fixtures like we've had this season, and those who have come close on the injury front have felt it. We've got some of our best players still working to fitness like Botman and Isak. It's a cliche but Barnes is basically a new signing after only 1 start. Willock and even players like Anderson will come back and give competition for places and rotation. We have far fewer fixtures over the next 5 months. It's a combination of factors that gives us a chance of going on a big run if we can get momentum. Pope is a big loss we can't fix quickly but I firmly believe that whatever happens in January, we'll pick up more points over the next 19 games for all these reasons. The major question is have we left ourselves too much to do? We're 7 points off Spurs. It's very difficult but not insurmountable in half a season. If we can beat them at our place it's a 4 pt gap over the other 18 games. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geogaddi Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 (edited) It's mad what one bad result can do , if we had beaten Forest we would be sat 7th and everyone would be happy enough and looking forward to an improved second half of the season with less injuries and games . Edited December 31, 2023 by Geogaddi Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 56 minutes ago, Geogaddi said: It's mad what one bad result can do , if we had beaten Forest we would be sat 7th and everyone would be happy enough and looking forward to an improved second half of the season with less injuries and games . Realistically we needed to beat both Forest and Luton. We aren't making up 11 points over half a season. That's the purely analytical view, beyond that I also think a team that scores or concedes late goals also tells a story. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoot Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Until we sort our away form out we've got no chance of finishing top 4 and it'll be touch and go to get into Europe at all. We've been honking away from home this season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OoOGazOoO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 hours ago, Coffee_Johnny said: How many points do you think will be needed to finish 4th? I think the way the top 4 is panning out already, it's going to need a 72 / 73 points to get in the Top 4 at least, personally. Which is an inconceivable amount for us to achieve given we are on 29! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
astraguy Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 top 4 I've written off in my eyes its been a very good first half to the season given who we've played in all comps and the injuries we've had, Last season we massively overachieved and got lucky with injuries! I would of taken Europe in any form last season and will again this in Eddie i trust Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 19 minutes ago, OoOGazOoO said: I think the way the top 4 is panning out already, it's going to need a 72 / 73 points to get in the Top 4 at least, personally. Which is an inconceivable amount for us to achieve given we are on 29! 73 points is the PL average for third. 68 points the average total for fourth. Thus far this season, it looks like being pretty close to an average points accumulation, i. e. Liverpool (1st) on 42 when the average would be around 43/44 at half way, Man City (3rd) on 40 when the average would be 37. I reckon 68/69 should be enough for 4th, if I had to guess. Still a long way off of course, but 62 should secure 6th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 If we won at Luton and Forest we would be on course for 70 points right? We are off pace. But not tremendously so. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shearergol Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 We’re not finishing top 4, but we’ll win the league soon enough. This season is just a set back Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Decky Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, Erikse said: If 5th gets CL, does that mean that 6-7th could get Europa League and that 8th place could get Conference League? I don't think the league gets a Conference League spot unless a team already in Europe wins the League Cup. I think a team in Europe has to win the FA Cup as well for a second EL spot. Edited December 31, 2023 by Decky Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OoOGazOoO Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, Coffee_Johnny said: 73 points is the PL average for third. 68 points the average total for fourth. Thus far this season, it looks like being pretty close to an average points accumulation, i. e. Liverpool (1st) on 42 when the average would be around 43/44 at half way, Man City (3rd) on 40 when the average would be 37. I reckon 68/69 should be enough for 4th, if I had to guess. Still a long way off of course, but 62 should secure 6th. Even 68/69 is a huge stretch I think. I doubt we will get much change out of Liverpool, City and Villa, so that puts us on 22 games with circa 29 points, 16 games to go to get 40ish points - 2.5 points a game on average. It'd have to be one heck of a run from February onwards. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turnbull2000 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 (edited) No lower that 7th is the target now. Should hopefully ensure we still keep our better players and the owners don't give Howe the chop. Would be devastated if Mourinho comes in - though he may realise we're very limited in spending due to FFP and FMV and not want to bother anyway. Edited December 31, 2023 by Turnbull2000 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Spurs are 10 points ahead of us. That just doesn't feel right. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketsbaia Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 (edited) With a heavily optimistic mindset, it could maybe be 6th. But we're probably talking 7th at best, which is a massive shame. All it took was one bad month. Edited December 31, 2023 by Ketsbaia Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikon Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 (edited) No matter how much it’s been frustrating for me/you it’s just one season. In a few years it’s just been a blip. Imagine being where we were before the takeover. No fucking ambition or hope whatsoever of looking to improve and be competitive. We will have many good/great seasons to enjoy and things will only become better and better until we are up there consistently. Might be 2 steps forward and one backwards at times. At least we can more than dream now again. Also, a lot can happen between now and the end of the season (positively) even if we do not end up as high as we might have wished for. Happy New Year to all of you. Peace! Edited January 1 by Ikon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Ikon said: No matter how much it’s been frustrating for me/you it’s just one season. In a few years it’s just been a blip. Imagine being where we were before the takeover. No fucking ambition or hope whatsoever of looking to improve and be competitive. We will have many good/great seasons to enjoy and things will only become better and better until we are up there consistently. Might be 2 steps forward and one backwards at times. At least we can more than dream now again. Also, a lot can happen between now and the end of the season (positively) even if we do not end up as high as we might have wished for. Happy New Year to all of you. Peace! Happy New Year to you too, Ikon. All the most enjoyable ‘dances’ have a bit of backwards as well as forward momentum. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PauloGeordio Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Coffee_Johnny said: Happy New Year to you too, Ikon. All the most enjoyable ‘dances’ have a bit of backwards as well as forward momentum. The pogo had its ups and downs too! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffee_Johnny Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, PauloGeordio said: The pogo had its ups and downs too! Cha-cha-cha charming! Waltzing to our new normal will be slow-slow-quick-quick-slow… (other dance metaphors are available 😉). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erikse Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 19 hours ago, Decky said: I don't think the league gets a Conference League spot unless a team already in Europe wins the League Cup. I think a team in Europe has to win the FA Cup as well for a second EL spot. I know, but that's not what I was asking. If the league gets a spot, will it be given to 8th place if 5th gets Champions League? And 7th can potensially get Europa League? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) We're now only 4 goals off conceding what we did in the whole of last season. (33 last season, 29 so far this) I'd say 6th is best reasonably-likely scenario. Edited January 2 by Superior Acuña Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyCisse Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Would we rather 8th this season and fresh legs every week or 6th and Europa league? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingArthur Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, RodneyCisse said: Would we rather 8th this season and fresh legs every week or 6th and Europa league? Europa. We can rotate there too, and it brings some revenue + chance to win something. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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