The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.

[GWN]

1 hour ago, TheBrownBottle said:

I think Arsenal will have a big drop-off.  Man Utd and Liverpool will be the challengers to Man City, who'll end up winning it.  The other three usual suspects + Villa and us to make up the rest of the top 8.

 

I suspect we'll finish c.7th, though I think top 8 should be the target.  Lower than that would represent a modest failure, I think.  Top 8 plus a cup run would do nicely.

 

 

The bookies have us as 15/2 second favourite fyi

[TheBrownBottle]

14 minutes ago, GWN said:

 

 

The bookies have us as 15/2 second favourite fyi

Great, and I'd be over the moon if that is the outcome.

 

Bookies odds just reflect where the money is being put, though.  It isn't a probablised outcome of the event.

[SteV]

1 hour ago, GWN said:

 

 

The bookies have us as 15/2 second favourite fyi

For what?

[jack j]

1 hour ago, GWN said:

 

 

The bookies have us as 15/2 second favourite fyi

Bookies have us 14/1 6th favourites if you mean for the title?

 

Had us 2nd favourites for a shortwhile when the season finished. Think they were banking on us going bizerk in the transfer market

 

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by jack j

[Coffee_Johnny]

Thought this thread had been put out to pasture after last season. I created a Top Six tracking thread for this season, happy to move that stuff here if you’d prefer @Rich

[Groundhog63]

34 minutes ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

Thought this thread had been put out to pasture after last season. I created a Top Six tracking thread for this season, happy to move that stuff here if you’d prefer @Rich

Move it all here then, also, create a thread for which game week we think you'll have to change the thread title from "TopFouroMeter" to "TopSixoMeter" 😋

[The Fountain]

16 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

Liverpool and Chelsea have better squads and are not in the CL. They along with Man U, Arsenal and City should be the top 5 if performing to their level.  
 

If any falter. We should be right there. But we’d also do well to stay ahead of Spurs, Villa and Brighton.  
 

Our back 5 basically had no injuries for the whole season.  I doubt we’ll be so lucky again on that front.  

Liverpool have Europa League which means more games than the CL.

[Rafalove]

Aye but the quality of opposition is lower. They can probably half arse most of their games until the latter rounds. Didn’t we play Metalist Kharkiv. In the quarters during our last European tour?

where as we’ll likely have tough games  all through the competition.

[manorpark]

I'm sure that the owners and management of NUFC. unlike many on here, plan and intend to make progress EVERY season, and have absolutely no intention of regressing.

 

A lot of us have not yet fully come to terms with who our owners are, and their intentions and their ability to achieve them.

 

What other clubs try to do is entirely up to them, we cannot influence that, except when we play against them.

 

So, progress on 4th, exactly how high this season, I do not know, but it is "progress on 4th".

 

 

[Novocastrian]

Fifth this season with, touch wood’ CL qualification would be a fantastic achievement. Then we bring in another 3/4 purples and establish ourselves in the top 4.

[Paullow]

Yeah, Arsenal finished 5th the year before and their European campaign consisted of 8 matches (which we'd at least hope to get this season). 6 group matches of PSV, Bodo/Glimt and Zurich and then a L16 defeat to Sporting - if we had matches against Zurich and Bodo Glimt then it would be a much changed side, possibly not too far off what we played vs Brighton the other day. 4 of Man Utd's 6 group matches included Omonia and Sheriff. They were pipped for top spot on goal difference which meant, unlike Arsenal, they did have to play a L32 match, but Liverpool can certainly experiment in the early stages and rest key players.

 

You obviously need to prepare for games and travel to them, but the Europa Conference group stage will likely be even easier for Villa. West Ham obviously struggled in the league last season although not conclusive that it was mainly down to extra European games because they made the SF of the Europa League in 2021/22 and still finished 7th in the league that season, but their Conference group matches consisted of FCFB, Anderlecht, and Silkeborg - they won all 6 matches and made 10 changes for their final match in Romania, including a bunch of kids, because they'd already won the group and avoided the L16 match, so that could be a great opportunity for Villa to play some of their many promising youngsters in the early stages, like it would have been for us, and save more of their better players for the league matches.

 

You obviously want to play in Champions League, and of course wouldn't change it to be in a lesser competition, or no Europe at all, but it will likely impact the league schedule. Mind, it's also the first time Arsenal have been in the CL since 2016/17, so it's fairly similar for them in that for the first time in years they will have additional huge priority matches in midweek.

[TheBrownBottle]

20 minutes ago, manorpark said:

I'm sure that the owners and management of NUFC. unlike many on here, plan and intend to make progress EVERY season, and have absolutely no intention of regressing.

 

A lot of us have not yet fully come to terms with who our owners are, and their intentions and their ability to achieve them.

 

What other clubs try to do is entirely up to them, we cannot influence that, except when we play against them.

 

So, progress on 4th, exactly how high this season, I do not know, but it is "progress on 4th".

 

 

I’m fully aware of who they are and how much they’re worth.

 

But that can’t be brought to bear due to the financial constraints placed upon the club.

 

Which means that, for now, our spend will be well behind the clubs who were around us last season.  And generally speaking, wages + net transfer spend correlates to league positions.

 

I still think top 8 and a cup run - if we exceed that, I’ll be delighted, just as I was last season.  If your expectations are 4th or above, then you’re very likely to end up disappointed. 

[Paullow]

For those interested in odds and who do use them as a gauge.

 

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/winner

 

It's kind of in line with how I see it, although I do think Liverpool will finish above Arsenal. Title odds have Man City odds on, Arsenal around 5s. Liverpool 8s, Man Utd 11s, then us and Chelsea around 16s with them slightly shorter (than us generally), Spurs 40/50, Brighton ahead of Villa which is quite surprising IMO, especially with them in the harder European competition this season.

 

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish

 

Top 4 odds have 4 teams odds on and then us and Chelsea very similar (Chelsea shorter at some, us shorter at others) with Spurs and Brighton (then Villa) a bit further back.

 

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-6-finish

 

The more obvious 4, Newcastle and Chelsea all odds on for a top 6 finish, with Spurs slightly north of evens - it will surely have been at least 15 years since Spurs weren't odds on to make the top 6 before a ball was kicked.

 

Thought there might have been some 'without Man City' odds, but not listed on Oddschecker.

 

 

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Paullow

[loki679]

It would be massive to achieve champions league qualification again this season, the more we play in it the more quickly our co-efficient will improve and the more money we'll get for qualifying.

 

Realistically, looking at our squad and the teams we're up against I think 7th or above would represent a decent season and continued progress towards our goals.

 

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by loki679

[manorpark]

47 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

I’m fully aware of who they are and how much they’re worth.

 

But that can’t be brought to bear due to the financial constraints placed upon the club.

 

Which means that, for now, our spend will be well behind the clubs who were around us last season.  And generally speaking, wages + net transfer spend correlates to league positions.

 

I still think top 8 and a cup run - if we exceed that, I’ll be delighted, just as I was last season.  If your expectations are 4th or above, then you’re very likely to end up disappointed. 

 

You are talking 'finance' (for some reason) which I was not.

 

I am purely talking, which I have from the very beginning of the earliest takeover proposals, about "ability to achieve" and (now they are here) about their certain intentions to achieve. To be Number One, so 'progress towards that' will happen this coming season, of course it will.

 

 

[Pata]

10 hours ago, TheBrownBottle said:

I think Arsenal will have a big drop-off.  Man Utd and Liverpool will be the challengers to Man City, who'll end up winning it.  The other three usual suspects + Villa and us to make up the rest of the top 8.

 

I suspect we'll finish c.7th, though I think top 8 should be the target.  Lower than that would represent a modest failure, I think.  Top 8 plus a cup run would do nicely.

 

I don't see Arsenal dropping off, they've had a good summer and the young squad is a year older. Also no way Man Utd can challenge Man City IMO, they were sixth last season in expected points way behind both us and Brighton and don't think their signings are that transformative.

 

If I would have to rank the teams right now it would be something like this:

 

Tier 1: Man City

Tier 2: Arsenal, Liverpool

Tier 3: Man Utd, Newcastle, Chelsea

Tier 4: Spurs, Brighton, Villa

 

Question marks on Liverpool too, lot of new midfielders and they haven't addressed their defense at all but I'm a bit terrified about their front line and they could score loads.

 

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Pata

[loki679]

I would have us in the tier with Spurs, Villa and Brighton tbh.  We're nowhere near Man Utd or Chelsea yet off the pitch.

[Pata]

15 minutes ago, loki679 said:

I would have us in the tier with Spurs, Villa and Brighton tbh.  We're nowhere near Man Utd or Chelsea yet off the pitch.

 

Yeah but it's close on the pitch. We were 27 points ahead of Chelsea last season, that's a lot despite them being a bit better than their results indicated. Obviously a freak season, Poch is good and no Europe but that's still a massive gap.

[Geogaddi]

42 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

I don't see Arsenal dropping off, they've had a good summer and the young squad is a year older. Also no way Man Utd can challenge Man City IMO, they were sixth last season in expected points way behind both us and Brighton and don't think their signings are that transformative.

 

If I would have to rank the teams right now it would be something like this:

 

Tier 1: Man City

Tier 2: Arsenal, Liverpool

Tier 3: Man Utd, Newcastle, Chelsea

Tier 4: Spurs, Villa, Brighton

 

Question marks on Liverpool too, lot of new midfielders and they haven't addressed their defense at all but I'm a bit terrified about their front line and they could score loads.

Agree with most of this , would have Chelsea in Tier 4 though . The top 5 will be the same as last season I think not necessarily in the same order though . I think Villa are now better than Spurs and Brighton but not at our level .

 

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Geogaddi

[Pata]

1 hour ago, Paullow said:

Brighton ahead of Villa which is quite surprising IMO, especially with them in the harder European competition this season.

 

Villa were pretty lucky during their run, looking at expected points since January 1st Villa had 33.72 expected points but finished with 43. Brighton had 44.35 expected but finished with 38. Villa will probably have a better summer than Brighton though but feel like people are overrating Villa a bit after the massive run.

 

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Pata

[The College Dropout]

9 hours ago, The Fountain said:

Liverpool have Europa League which means more games than the CL.

They can field the B team until the last 16. 
 

Salah and VVD won’t start many games until Feb.  
 

CL you have to play your strongest team from GW1 until the end in most cases.   

[Nine]

Wouldn’t be so quick to lump Brighton in at 6thish, their recruitment dictates everything and they have lost key players this summer 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Chelsea have averaged 70 points a season over the past 10 years with a couple of whoppers and a couple of stinkers in there. With the strength of the new top 6 (bye Spurs) I don't see them getting much above 70 this season. Imo if we can get 75 points we'll be top 4, 70 would get top 5

[The College Dropout]

I’d be delighted with 75 points.  With CL football I’d be delighted with 70 points. 

[Gawalls]

10 hours ago, manorpark said:

I'm sure that the owners and management of NUFC. unlike many on here, plan and intend to make progress EVERY season, and have absolutely no intention of regressing.

 

A lot of us have not yet fully come to terms with who our owners are, and their intentions and their ability to achieve them.

 

What other clubs try to do is entirely up to them, we cannot influence that, except when we play against them.

 

So, progress on 4th, exactly how high this season, I do not know, but it is "progress on 4th".

 

 

Finishing in top six and not embarrassing ourselves in CLwould be progress and finishing 4th again so getting CL again would be huge progress. Last season we achieved something well ahead of schedule and are struggling at the moment financially so if by per chance we don’t get top four I hope people don’t start seeing it as a failure.