NUFC Transfer Rumours

[LFEE]

Great effort @kocunar ? 

[Conjo]

tl:dr

 

can you summarize in 1-2 sentences pls

[Rich]

What a fucking effort that was, take a bow @kocunar.

 

[mighty__mag]

40 minutes ago, gbandit said:

https://amp.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/03/raheem-sterling-leads-criticism-after-bonucci-says-kean-50-50-to-blame-for-racist-abuse

 

Have you ever seen the interview with John Berersford under the cosh? He discussed Shaka Hislop and racism, he's open and honest and he says Shaka respected his honesty, John Beresford ends up with an MBE after telling Shaka he used to behave in a racist manner from lack of education and understanding. 

 

Some would perhaps label him a massive racist, however Shaka and Bez used it in a positive way, you can get things wrong in life and correct them without being condemned forever. 

 

Have a watch from 2.20 minutes in, 

 

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by mighty__mag

[kocunar]

Just now, Conjo said:

tl:dr

 

can you summarize in 1-2 sentences pls

We spend however much we want if the opportunity arises, but don't want to limit ourselves for the future too much. Probably around £75m in transfer fees. Also, we don't have to sell anyone.

[Geordie Boyo]

Gotta blister on me thumb from scrolling…! 

[MrRaspberryJam]

4 minutes ago, kocunar said:

OK, here we go, an attempt to find out and explain FFP constraints that we face this year and in the future. 
It will be written in 2 parts, this being part 2 where I go over our financial numbers for past and upcoming seasons.

 

Keep in mind that a lot of the numbers in this post will be estimates. 
However, you will see by the end that even with estimates, the money we can spend this year isn't really limited by FFP but rather how aggressive we want to be this year and how much we want to limit ourselves in the future.

 

As was outlined in part 1, the maximum loss we can sustain in a 3 year period is £105m. 
In season 2021/22 we had a total revenue of £180m. Match income accounts for £27.3m, broadcast revenue £124.1m, commercial revenue £26.5m and other sources £1.8m. We also made a profit of £5.8m on disposal of player registrations.
When it comes to losses, total amortisation was £49.7m (increased a lot by January signings compared to year before) and staff wages were £170.2m. 
In the end, for FFP calculations we were in a total loss of around £-35.7m for the whole year.

For season 2022/23 we had a projected revenue of ~£231.4m. Projections for match income are around ~£30m (based on few extra cup games and increased ticket prices). Broadcast income was around £163.4m, due to new and more lucrative EPL TV deals, better standings position and more televised games.
Commercial revenue is projected to have been around ~£35m, thanks to noon sleeve sponsorship and a couple of new commercial partners. With other source of revenue at around £3m, total revenue is projected to be around ~£231.4m. We also made a profit of around £13m in player sales.
As for losses, total amortisation was ~£80m due to only Dubravka amortisation of £1m expiring and all of summer and winter signings adding to amortisation costs. Wages have increased somewhere close to ~£180m. 
All in all, for FFP calculations, the total loss was around £-15.7m.

 

Which leaves us the next year with UCL play and new shirt sponsor. Our spend for next year would be allowed up to £54m in losses. 
Let's first go over our minimum revenues which I hope is how our management is calculating future guaranteed revenues. We don't want to put ourselves in a Chelsea or Everton situation.
We will do that by calculating REASONABLE worst case scenario. Obviously there exists a scenario where we get relegated, but even in bookmakers the odds for that right now are 500/1. 
So, we will choose a scenario where we end last place in UCL with 4 points in group stage and where we finish 10th in EPL. Obviously, we would hope for better results, but we should be prepared for anything.

In that case, our revenues for next year would look something like this: match income at ~£40m (slight increase in ticket prices and extra UCL games), £150.4m in broadcast revenue (10th place in EPL) and commercial revenue around £55m (Sela deal bringing an extra £18.5m). 
UCL revenue would be around £30m (would be a lot higher but our UEFA coefficient is very low, hopefully something we improve this year). It can also go a lot higher with a deep run, but we calculate worst case scenario here. With other revenues at around £3m, total revenue would be around £280m. For reference, in season 2021/22 that would have put us in 14th place in the world, right above Inter Milan.
Also, sale of Chris Wood for £15m counts towards this year.
When it comes to costs, total amortisation costs increase to ~£90m. That is because only Murphy's and Krafth's amortisation cost expires, while quite a bit is added by (primarily) Tonali and Minteh. Also, total wages increase to ~£190m. 
All together, the profit for this year so far is ~£15m, even when including Tonali and Minteh transfers. Given that we can afford a loss of ~£54m, we still have ~£69m to spend. 

Those £69m do not mean we that can only spend £69m on transfer fees. Because of amortisation we could theoretically buy two players for £10m salary and £120m transfer fee each. That transfer fee would count as only £24m for this year per player.
However, that would be very unwise thing to do, as it is very much not a guarantee that we will manage to qualify for UCL next year which those transfers would require. Basically, UCL money gives us extra non-guaranteed money this year. Pushing FFP to the limit this year would require us to qualify for UCL every year for next few years in order to avoid selling any key players.
That is also the reason Howe said that Sela sponsorship doesn't improve our budget this year. It will be very helpful in the future, but for this year, after qualifying for UCL, we weren't going to push the FFP to its limit anyway.

 

So, how much will we spend this year? Hard to answer. It all depends on how aggressive we want to be. Similar to last year, if an opportunity like Isak opens up, we can take it, but otherwise I would expect a slow summer. Probably around £25m in wages + amortisation. One version of that is 2 rotation level players with a combined transfer fee of £75m.

 

Oh and also, a revelation in all of this. We don't have to sell anyone. We might if we get a really good offer that we thinks will only come once, but when it comes to FFP: we don't have to sell anyone.

was just saying this to my mate. 

[Conjo]

Just now, kocunar said:

We spend however much we want if the opportunity arises, but don't want to limit ourselves for the future too much. Probably around £75m in transfer fees. Also, we don't have to sell anyone.

 

 I wasn't being serious - but thanks! Great effort on the OP.

[kocunar]

Just now, Conjo said:

 

 I wasn't being serious - but thanks! Great effort on the OP.

Nah, I actually wanted to put TLDR at the end but forgot 

[Optimistic Nut]

We apparently rejected £85m for Botman before they moved on to Gvardiol. 

 

Edit: just seen the source. Nufcblog.co.uk FFS.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Optimistic Nut

[Alberto2005]

4 minutes ago, mighty__mag said:

 

Have you ever seen the interview with John Berersford under the cosh? He discussed Shaka Hislop and racism, he's open and honest and he says Shaka respected his honesty, John Beresford ends up with an MBE after telling Shaka he used to behave in a racist manner from lack of education and understanding. 

 

Some would perhaps label him a massive racist, however Shaka and Bez used it in a positive way, you can get things wrong in life and correct them without being condemned forever. 

 

Have a watch from 2.20 minutes in, 

 

 

 

 

Watched it a few times the Tino stories are class.

[Tiresias]

1 minute ago, Optimistic Nut said:

We apparently rejected £85m for Botman before they moved on to Gvardiol. 

 

Cheeky fucks 

[Rich]

 

McGrath hinting that he's nailed it?

[STM]

The same guy who told us we were close to Barella.

[HaydnNUFC]

2 minutes ago, Rich said:

 

McGrath hinting that he's nailed it?

 

That article doesn't actually say that much other than we're after a LW. Which surprises me unless there's a significant outgoing.

[LFEE]

Just now, HaydnNUFC said:

 

That article doesn't actually say that much other than we're after a LW. Which surprises me unless there's a significant outgoing.

Pretty sure that was the guy I heard on TalkSport discussing Barnes & us and even he was doubting his own story that we needed another LW ?

[toon25]

12 minutes ago, mighty__mag said:

 

Have you ever seen the interview with John Berersford under the cosh? He discussed Shaka Hislop and racism, he's open and honest and he says Shaka respected his honesty, John Beresford ends up with an MBE after telling Shaka he used to behave in a racist manner from lack of education and understanding. 

 

Some would perhaps label him a massive racist, however Shaka and Bez used it in a positive way, you can get things wrong in life and correct them without being condemned forever. 

 

Have a watch from 2.20 minutes in, 

 

 

 

 

Looks like Billy Mitchell 

[mighty__mag]

2 minutes ago, toon25 said:

Looks like Billy Mitchell 

 Harsh, he looks good for his age.

[gbandit]

14 minutes ago, mighty__mag said:

 

Have you ever seen the interview with John Berersford under the cosh? He discussed Shaka Hislop and racism, he's open and honest and he says Shaka respected his honesty, John Beresford ends up with an MBE after telling Shaka he used to behave in a racist manner from lack of education and understanding. 

 

Some would perhaps label him a massive racist, however Shaka and Bez used it in a positive way, you can get things wrong in life and correct them without being condemned forever. 

 

Have a watch from 2.20 minutes in, 

 

 

 

 

I’m all for people being open to changing their opinions and becoming more accepting. No idea if Bonnucci is someone with deep seated opinions on the matter or whether he used extremely clumsy and dangerous language. There’s a difference between “banter” and trying to make someone take responsibility for people being appallingly racist towards them. It’s all a bit hypothetical as we have no idea what he’s really like but I just remembered that occasion and wanted to highlight it 

[timeEd32]

@kocunar Wonderful effort. I'm going to be the asshole that points out a couple corrections after you've put in a ton of work:

• The new UEFA squad cost control includes not just wages but amortised transfer and agent fees. Wages are only counted for players (men only) and coaching staff, which Swiss Ramble has estimated is about 90% of wages typically published.
• UEFA's FFP limits are a bit stricter (and more confusing because of a good standing clause) but our limit on losses is potentially capped at ~£51M for the 23/24 monitoring period.
• In our 2021/22 accounts the club revealed the amortisation charge of the current playing squad (i.e. after January) for future years. 2022/23 is £69.7M, so you're on the high side by about £10M

[Manxst]

27 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

We apparently rejected £85m for Botman before they moved on to Gvardiol. 

 

Edit: just seen the source. Nufcblog.co.uk FFS.

 

 

 

Chronicle reported this morning it was just an enquiry as to whether we’d sell, not even a bid, and they got told under no circumstances. It’s a nothing story. 

[kocunar]

8 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

@kocunar Wonderful effort. I'm going to be the asshole that points out a couple corrections after you've put in a ton of work:

• The new UEFA squad cost control includes not just wages but amortised transfer and agent fees. Wages are only counted for players (men only) and coaching staff, which Swiss Ramble has estimated is about 90% of wages typically published.
• UEFA's FFP limits are a bit stricter (and more confusing because of a good standing clause) but our limit on losses is potentially capped at ~£51M for the 23/24 monitoring period.
• In our 2021/22 accounts the club revealed the amortisation charge of the current playing squad (i.e. after January) for future years. 2022/23 is £69.7M, so you're on the high side by about £10M

Thanks for corrections, I did calculate percentages based on amortisations as well, need to update that part. Also, I saw that number of £69.7M for 2022/23 but other numbers in that part (only £4.5M in 2026-27) seemed to indicate that they are based on end of June 2022 ( it even refers to total amortisation as squad cost at 30 June 2022) so I used my own calculations with the whole summer and winter instead.

[mighty__mag]

11 minutes ago, gbandit said:

I’m all for people being open to changing their opinions and becoming more accepting. No idea if Bonnucci is someone with deep seated opinions on the matter or whether he used extremely clumsy and dangerous language. There’s a difference between “banter” and trying to make someone take responsibility for people being appallingly racist towards them. It’s all a bit hypothetical as we have no idea what he’s really like but I just remembered that occasion and wanted to highlight it 

 

You did say 'massive racist?' 

 

But now twice say no idea?

 

maybe consider how you label people, if you have no idea?

 

 

[timeEd32]

Just now, kocunar said:

Thanks for corrections, I did calculate percentages based on amortisations as well, need to update that part. Also, I saw that number of £69.7M for 2022/23 but other numbers in that part (only £4.5M in 2026-27) seemed to indicate that they are based on end of June 2022 ( it even refers to total amortisation as squad cost at 30 June 2022) so I used my own calculations with the whole summer and winter instead.

 

Ah, interesting. I interpreted "current playing squad" as the time of writing, but makes more sense that it would be the end of the account period being discussed.

[Stal]

Epic explanation! Which of the journos will be first to steal it do we reckon?