Marc Guehi

[Dandy Man]

Having to work off a lot of incomplete information and speculation but it does all feel a bit weird, I rate Guehi and he'd definitely improve us overnight but it feels extremely obvious and hard to see where the value proposition is/was. Given we are supposedly targeting players who come available at the right price point, it's hard to reconcile that with the apparent exclusive prioritisation of one player for the last few weeks. 

 

I don't think we're particularly screwed barring another injury crisis and I think we can overachieve with less games and lower expectations but the transfer strategy is very confusing to me.

[TheBrownBottle]

Just now, DahnSahf said:

 

He wasn't saying that though. He was saying we can spend the money but because of PSR it must improve us.

Whether you agree with the way they've gone about it is a different matter of course.

Yeah, I see that - but if Howe and Mitchell between them can’t come up with better centre back options than Burn and Krafth (and Schar tbh) with £65m then that would be truly worrying.  

[Zero]

1 minute ago, TheBrownBottle said:

Yeah, I see that - but if Howe and Mitchell between them can’t come up with better centre back options than Burn and Krafth (and Schar tbh) with £65m then that would be truly worrying.  

Add Murphy/Almiron to the list please

[r0cafella]

2 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

It's not that uncommon either. For example, Arsenal need a striker, they really wanted Sesko who decided to sign a new contract with Leipzig so they didn't bother.

We aren’t Arsenal though, they aren’t starting Emil Krafh or Jacob Murphy. 
 

We can’t take the approach they do because our situations are not the same, or we just parrot what they do how will we catch them?

[Shearergol]

Just now, stozo said:

It's 100% a risk but with PSR the biggest risk is actually getting a signing wrong. In the next 2-3 years we have virtually no room for error. If an expensive inbound transfer goes wrong then we won't have the ability to just cut our losses and sign another player. Or rather, the only way we'll be able to sign another player is by cashing in on someone we don't want to sell (which likely means Bruno, Isak or Gordon). Do I like this? No. Is this the reality we face with PSR? Sadly Yes. 

 

Even with signing Guehi we'd have to cash in on someone next year. This place is gonna go mental next year when we're trying to sign a new CB, RW AND striker.

 

We don't need expensive transfers, we need improvements on squad players, IMO. We saw last season with the injuries to key players just how poor the options were coming in. We're already seeing that now after 1 game where we've had to rely on Krafth for 3 games.

 

So let's say hypothetically Guehi comes in. He'll start right? So Schar down to the bench? What happens next season? Looks like we probably need a replacement for Schar, right? So we're a year behind where we could be by bringing in a young player to learn from him now. The way we're leaving things right now, we need a new starting RCB next summer and a backup. 

[bobbydazzla]

2 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

It's not that uncommon either. For example, Arsenal need a striker, they really wanted Sesko who decided to sign a new contract with Leipzig so they didn't bother.

 

Wonder if there's Gooners on a forum screaming bloody murder at each other about why Arsenal haven't forced us to sell Isak to them after Sesko stayed at Leipzig

 

[Izakaya]

[The Prophet]

7 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

We aren’t Arsenal though, they aren’t starting Emil Krafh or Jacob Murphy. 
 

We can’t take the approach they do because our situations are not the same, or we just parrot what they do how will we catch them?

 

Christ, I'm just pointing out it isn't exclusive to us, it isn't an endorsement of our transfer window.

[Elliottman]

Hope we end up signing this cunt for 20 million in 12 months time. 

[Kid Icarus]

16 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

It's not that uncommon either. For example, Arsenal need a striker, they really wanted Sesko who decided to sign a new contract with Leipzig so they didn't bother.

They also wanted Mudryk and got Trossard instead. Is Guehi really a 'him or no one' defender?

[Kid Icarus]

39 minutes ago, Beren said:

 

Reframe it differently and it's plausible IMO. The only position worth creating a future liability of that size for is a 24 year old, PL proven, English CB with a high probability of retaining his resale value, who can make an immediate difference to the first team and allow us to control possession.

 

I'd be stunned if Guehi ended up holding his value or turning a profit, mind. 

[Beren]

1 minute ago, Kid Icarus said:

 

I'd be stunned if Guehi ended up holding his value or turning a profit, mind. 

 

Playing devil's advocate, would you have said the same when we signed Anthony Gordon for £50m?

[r0cafella]

Just now, Beren said:

 

Playing devil's advocate, would you have said the same when we signed Anthony Gordon for £50m?

Probably not, but you can't overlook the fact Guehi is a CB who isn't even good in the air. AG is an attacker who is at least quick. 

[clintdempsey]

Guehi would've been profitable in PSR terms if we managed to sell him for 30+ million after three years of service. Which I suppose is how we have to look at things these days.

[TRon]

32 minutes ago, mondonewc said:

Hypothetical scenario (dates may be out but it's irrelevant):

Mid July - Howe & Co - Let's go get Guehi, circa 60m should do it

Around same time Todibo is going to West Ham, Howe & Co consider trying to hijack that deal and get him instead:

a) Maybe he would rather move to London than Newcastle
b) We think Guehi is much better and believe we can get him 

Could list c, d and e etc reasons re attitude etc to elaborate further reasons why Guehi>>>>Todibo

End of July -  Negotiations with Parish for Guehi not going fully as expected, Parish seems to want to play hardball, our perception is we can come up a little and 1-2 weeks time we'll get this done 

Rinse repeat Todibo scenario with some other potential options

Mid August - Howe & Co starting to worry, surely Parish will sell him in the end though, and if we have to pay slightly over what we deem fair value so be it.

End of August - Howe & Co realise Parish clearly isn't bluffing, Anderson has unexpectably been sold, another CB of Palace has been injured, so Parish deems fit to increase the price multiple time, this has now gone to shit and we've basically fucked it up....

And here we are!

Now everyone's welcome to criticise their approach, but a lot of the criticism seems results orientated which I personally would look to avoid as it's all well and good with hindsight, but I'd rather try to judge the situation on what I deem to be a fairer basis than that. 

 

Seems like a dumb approach to have put so much stock into landing Guehi. Where were the alternatives just in case we couldn't make it happen?

[ponsaelius]

You won't make hold/money on £60+ million players anymore IMO. The market has fallen out at the level above that with FFP.

 

Napoli are somehow managing to sell Osimhen at a loss even to Saudi. And he's a centre forward.

 

Brighton have re-calibrated from £10-15 million into the £30 million bracket - which I think is now the sweet spot for a club looking to develop and profit specifically.

 

I agree with the club not wanting to go higher on Guehi for these reasons. What I don't understand is having absolutely no flexibility or confidence in finding better players than what we have in that lower pricepoint.

 

 

Edited August 30, 2024 by ponsaelius

[r0cafella]

Just now, clintdempsey said:

Guehi would've been profitable in PSR terms if we managed to sell him for 30+ million after three years of service. Which I suppose is how we have to look at things these days.

This is spot on, but the other side of the coin in the deal all-inclusive is hitting you for 20m per year. it's a lot to cover for minimal upside. 

 

It's why it feels like the club actually doesn't have a cohesive plan to move forward in this PSR age. Eddie himself said PSR has totally changed how things work and it looks like we are having a hard time getting to grips with it. 

[Myleftboot]

35 minutes ago, mondonewc said:

Hypothetical scenario (dates may be out but it's irrelevant):

Mid July - Howe & Co - Let's go get Guehi, circa 60m should do it

Around same time Todibo is going to West Ham, Howe & Co consider trying to hijack that deal and get him instead:

a) Maybe he would rather move to London than Newcastle
b) We think Guehi is much better and believe we can get him 

Could list c, d and e etc reasons re attitude etc to elaborate further reasons why Guehi>>>>Todibo

End of July -  Negotiations with Parish for Guehi not going fully as expected, Parish seems to want to play hardball, our perception is we can come up a little and 1-2 weeks time we'll get this done 

Rinse repeat Todibo scenario with some other potential options

Mid August - Howe & Co starting to worry, surely Parish will sell him in the end though, and if we have to pay slightly over what we deem fair value so be it.

End of August - Howe & Co realise Parish clearly isn't bluffing, Anderson has unexpectably been sold, another CB of Palace has been injured, so Parish deems fit to increase the price multiple time, this has now gone to shit and we've basically fucked it up....

And here we are!

Now everyone's welcome to criticise their approach, but a lot of the criticism seems results orientated which I personally would look to avoid as it's all well and good with hindsight, but I'd rather try to judge the situation on what I deem to be a fairer basis than that. 

On the subject of Todibo didnt one of the journos say Mitchell wanted to sign him but Eddie didn’t. Might have dreamt it.

[r0cafella]

1 minute ago, ponsaelius said:

You won't make hold/money on £60+ million players anymore IMO. The market has fallen out at the level above that with FFP.

 

Napoli are somehow managing to sell Osimhen at a loss even to Saudi. And he's a centre forward.

 

Brighton have re-calibrated from £10-15 million into the £30 million bracket - which I think is now the sweet spot for a club looking to develop and profit specifically.

 

I agree with the club not wanting to go higher on Guehi for these reasons. What I don't understand is having absolutely no flexibility or confidence in finding better players than what we have in that lower pricepoint.

 

 

 

This also explains the lack of offers for Bruno and Isak as well as Liverpools Gordons offer.

 

The liquidity has been sucked out of the market because the rules have teeth and now everyone is scrambling. 

[TRon]

Just now, ponsaelius said:

You won't make hold/money on £60+ million players anymore IMO. The market has fallen out at the level above that with FFP.

 

Napoli are somehow managing to sell Osimhen at a loss even to Saudi. And he's a centre forward.

 

Brighton have re-calibrated from £10-15 million into the £30 million bracket.

 

I agree with the club not wanting to go higher on Guehi for these reasons. What I don't understand is having absolutely no flexibility or confidence in finding better players than what we have in that lower pricepoint.

 

All clubs are now refusing to put big money into players who are over 25. Ashley was derided for it, but in the FFP era it just doesn't make sense any more, that is why the market has deflated so much and everyone is after the same players who fall into the right age bracket.

[Beren]

3 minutes ago, clintdempsey said:

Guehi would've been profitable in PSR terms if we managed to sell him for 30+ million after three years of service. Which I suppose is how we have to look at things these days.

 

Really good point. I think resale is a partial fallback. Ideally we're not a selling club in 3-5 year's time. The sale of a different player is likely funding this.

[mondonewc]

2 minutes ago, TRon said:

 

Seems like a dumb approach to have put so much stock into landing Guehi. Where were the alternatives just in case we couldn't make it happen?

I'm obviously just speculating thus me stating it was hypothetical, and as I said previously, we all seemingly are in agreement it's been poor, I would've expected we'd have a deadline to walk away, presume they had reasons to pursue it as long as they did. @Kid Icarusasked for some logic and part of that would make sense to me, egg on our face now though and seemingly lessons to be learnt 

[mondonewc]

2 minutes ago, Myleftboot said:

On the subject of Todibo didnt one of the journos say Mitchell wanted to sign him but Eddie didn’t. Might have dreamt it.

I just remember us being linked to him, no idea other than that. 

[Kid Icarus]

9 minutes ago, Beren said:

 

Playing devil's advocate, would you have said the same when we signed Anthony Gordon for £50m?

 

No, but mainly because £45m for Gordon at his age and in his position is a pretty crowded price point. That was much nearer to 'the going rate' so to speak, whereas £70m for Marc Guehi as a CB represents a fee reserved for the very best defenders in the world, where's the ceiling from that point for him in terms of transfer fees?

 

Not to mention that if we'd spent the entire transfer window upping and upping our bid for Gordon, never had an alternative, and not signed anyone else in any position, that context would be the thing the annoyed me more than anything. I think I mentioned this yesterday, but if we'd missed out on Guehi like we did Botman (ie having signed other players in the same window) the context is totally different, the fan reaction and the feeling about everything is totally different. It's that we've missed out on Guehi and not addressed any other positions that's galling. 

 

 

Edited August 30, 2024 by Kid Icarus

[Yorkie]

4 minutes ago, ponsaelius said:

I agree with the club not wanting to go higher on Guehi for these reasons. What I don't understand is having absolutely no flexibility or confidence in finding better players than what we have in that lower pricepoint.

 

If you believe Howe's presser, we did have flexibility. We were just equally as hopeless at negotiating a deal as we were with Parish.

 

We're not gutless, we're incompetent... that right, General? 

Sergeant Fry, The Rock, 1996