Newcastle United vs. Everton: 25/05/25 @ 16:00 (TV tbc)

[South-Cheshire-Toon]

30 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

 

This is hurting my head! I *think*

if we win we're in the champions league

if we draw and Chelsea/Forest draw then we're in the Champs league regardless of the Villa result

If we match Villa's result we are in the champions league

If we draw and either Chelsea or Forest win we need Villa to draw or lose

If we lose and Villa win or draw its Europa league regardless of the Chelsea Forest game

 

So I think the Villa beat Manure box becomes Forest Chelsea Draw with the arrow going to champs league being yes then the Villa result box hits the intersection of the Forest box ,us losing and Europa league - you can lose the Villa beating Manure box as it only becomes relevant if Forest or Chelsea win after we draw

 

Again I *think*, its hurting my head putting it into a flowchart

 

It's all down to the permutations, so - 

 

NCAF

W---  > CL

 

But a draw and so Just Chelsea win, all perms of Villa - 

DWWL ?

DWDL ?

DWLL ?

 

Chelsea draw - all perms villa - 

DDWD ?

DDDD ?

DDLD ?

 

Chelsea loose ....  Then Villa win - all perms of chelsea - ...

 

Do i need to go on - I'm sure some whizz kid of a programmer could write a script in 5 mins that would work it all out.

 

[Erikse]

49 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

 

This is hurting my head! I *think*

if we win we're in the champions league

if we draw and Chelsea/Forest draw then we're in the Champs league regardless of the Villa result

If we match Villa's result we are in the champions league

If we draw and either Chelsea or Forest win we need Villa to draw or lose

If we lose and Villa win or draw its Europa league regardless of the Chelsea Forest game

 

So I think the Villa beat Manure box becomes Forest Chelsea Draw with the arrow going to champs league being yes then the Villa result box hits the intersection of the Forest box ,us losing and Europa league - you can lose the Villa beating Manure box as it only becomes relevant if Forest or Chelsea win after we draw

 

Again I *think*, its hurting my head putting it into a flowchart

 

 

I think this is pretty much it anyways, apart from a freak result where Everton smash us and Chelsea go past us despite losing. In that case we would drop out even if Villa lose. Not realistic at all though.

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by Erikse

[Colos Short and Curlies]

34 minutes ago, Paully said:

Sure it’s four - three SKY one TNT

 

We’ll be on 

 

There's only 3 games with anything riding on them so you'd hope that they will see sense, especially as 2 of them involve the media darlings Manure and Chelsea

 

I reckon TNT take the Villa game and sky have us, Chelsea/Forest and the Liverpool game

[South-Cheshire-Toon]

16 minutes ago, Erikse said:

 

I think this is pretty much it anyways, apart from a freak result where Everton smash us and Chelsea go past us despite losing. In that case we would drop out even if Villa lose. Not realistic at all though.

 

 

 

@Colos Short and Curlies

 

Ok, so I got out the spreadsheet and just typed in the perms - there are 27 way the results could end up (taking that the chelsea / forest result will result in the same but opposite).

From the outcomes, 7 will put us into the Europa league (@25% chance), with 20 putting us into the champions league (@75% chance).

 

A list of perms is below - 

 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Nice one, obvs the percentage chance doesn't really make sense since the different outcomes have different chances of happening. But nice to see them laid out. 

 

Particularly nice to see the amount of scenarios where we can draw and still make it to CL. 

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by AyeDubbleYoo

[South-Cheshire-Toon]

3 minutes ago, South-Cheshire-Toon said:

@Colos Short and Curlies

 

Ok, so I got out the spreadsheet and just typed in the perms - there are 27 way the results could end up (taking that the chelsea / forest result will result in the same but opposite).

From the outcomes, 7 will put us into the Europa league (@25% chance), with 20 putting us into the champions league (@75% chance).

 

A list of perms is below - 

 

 

Further to this - and you never know what will happen - but the above is assuming that Shitty have won at Fulham - which if they don't, will then throw a load of other perms into the mix - which I'm not even thinking about.

 

[Elma]

8 minutes ago, South-Cheshire-Toon said:

@Colos Short and Curlies

 

Ok, so I got out the spreadsheet and just typed in the perms - there are 27 way the results could end up (taking that the chelsea / forest result will result in the same but opposite).

From the outcomes, 7 will put us into the Europa league (@25% chance), with 20 putting us into the champions league (@75% chance).

 

A list of perms is below - 

 

 

I'm confused. How does. Line 16 work? 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

5 minutes ago, Elma said:

 

I'm confused. How does. Line 16 work? 

 

Yeah I think Line 16 puts us Europa.

 

I also don't think the City result has any bearing on us now. We can only catch them with a win which puts us in the CL regardless of what City do.

 

 

 

[South-Cheshire-Toon]

9 minutes ago, Elma said:

 

I'm confused. How does. Line 16 work? 

 

Good spot - it doesn't - updated table - 

 

[South-Cheshire-Toon]

8 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

 

Yeah I think Line 16 puts us Europa.

 

I also don't think the City result has any bearing on us now. We can only catch them with a win which puts us in the CL regardless of what City do.

 

 

 

 

Ah - but you are wrong - if Shitty lose - and we (Newcastle / Chelsea / Villa ) all win - then they come 6th - if Forest beat Chelsea - then they come 5th.

[Elma]

Officials announced:

 

Referee: Tony Harrington

Assistants: Dan Cook, Sam Lewis

Fourth official: Tom Neild

VAR: Paul Tierney. Assistant VAR: Wade Smith.

 

Edit: First game of ours this season I think, but he did the 1-1 with Everton at home the year before as well as the 5-1 at home to Sheff U. The year before that he had the 1-0 at home to Everton so it seems to be the fixture he gets for us. His Premier league breakthrough season was 21/22 when he got three games in total, including our 1-0 home win against Palace. Looks like he's only ever reffed us at home. Grandad played for Hartlepool and he apparently supports them.

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Elma
Additional info

[SUPERTOON]

1 minute ago, Elma said:

Officials announced:

 

Referee: Tony Harrington

Assistants: Dan Cook, Sam Lewis

Fourth official: Tom Neild

VAR: Paul Tierney. Assistant VAR: Wade Smith.

Played for the refs Sunday league team when I was a bit younger. 

[JigsawGoesToPieces]

2 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Played for the refs Sunday league team when I was a bit younger. 

 

From up here iirc, Hartlepool way?

[SUPERTOON]

Just now, JigsawGoesToPieces said:

 

From up here iirc, Hartlepool way?

Aye, went to the same senior school as him as well. 

[Magpie]

This been announced as being televised yet? Surely it will be 

[Stifler]

1 hour ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

Probably very short notice for this weekend as its not going to impact kick off times

It’s no defence to be honest.

 

It’s a bank holiday weekend. If your game is picked for TV then that opens up the door of going out to watch it. People want to and often need to make plans ahead of time in order to do so. They know the situation for all the important places already, even last nights result didn’t change much in the context.

There is no reason not to have decided now other than utter contempt, and a complete lack of respect for fans.

[Coffee_Johnny]

1 hour ago, Paully said:

Sure it’s four - three SKY one TNT

 

We’ll be on 

‘Kin hell. We’ll be TNT I bet. Need to check my one month subscription via Prime is still valid. 
 

(it is! Phew) 

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Coffee_Johnny

[TBG]

Liverpool V Crystal Palace - Sky

Southampton v Arsenal - Sky

Ipswich v West Ham - Sky

Aston Villa v Man Utd - TNT

[The Prophet]

Is this common knowledge?

[Vaj]

Sky sports have only got two games, how bizarre! TNT will definitely be Aston Villa's game so looks like it is a dodgy stream for our second biggest game of the season.

[Weznufc]

8 minutes ago, TBG said:

Liverpool V Crystal Palace - Sky

Southampton v Arsenal - Sky

Ipswich v West Ham - Sky

Aston Villa v Man Utd - TNT

Ipswich v West ham. Really sky that's shocking 

[Rich]

[NUFCDoog]

Not on TV 

 

Fuck sake man, can only assume they think we've already wrapped it up so no point showing us as we're "already qualified".

 

Sky having just two games is bizarre.

 

EDIT - Obviouslt TBGs isn't correct, but the sky tweet is and TNT have Man Utd Villa

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by NUFCDoog

[Colos Short and Curlies]

1 hour ago, South-Cheshire-Toon said:

 

Ah - but you are wrong - if Shitty lose - and we (Newcastle / Chelsea / Villa ) all win - then they come 6th - if Forest beat Chelsea - then they come 5th.

im not arsed about where City finish (other than the lols if they end up 6th), hence them not being a factor in our destiny

[mighty__mag]

South-Cheshire-Toon has gone to some lengths here