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Because we can't afford to replace both. How much would two Premier League level midfielders cost in your opinion? Add to that the fact that massive squad turnover isn't helpful for team dynamics and both those players have been mainstays of the team for years now so it would be a drastic change for players around them.

Why not? Not like their performances lately will be hard to replace

I get the idea but I'd much rather Longstaff leave. I can't see any way we could let them both go.

Well that's even better than I thought originally and it's a no brainer then if we can get that done in the summer.

Nothing would be better than getting Willock back to his best. Its been quite a while now though. For me he has these 4 last games to show some glimpses of his old self. If he doesnt I would let him go in the summer. Should be able to get a decent fee.

Bit out of touch old Potter. Either that or he fancies another quick pay off

Yeah this is correct, we'd extend the remaining amortisation over the new contract length or up to 5 years for PSR purposes. He's currently into the 3rd year of 5 so we've effectively amortised £37.8m of the £63m paid. Giving him a new 5 year contract would reduce the amortisation from £12.6m/yr to only £5.04m/yr

That's right - if you extend the contract you also extend the period of amortisation which decreases the amortisation per year. If we gave him an extra £50k/week, that'd cost us £2.6m/year more but as your sums show we could potentially cover that (and then some) with the reduced amortisation costs. Edit - it's the remaining amortisation that is extended so if he's got (for example) £30m left over three years and we extend by another two years then the annual amortisation drops from £10m/year to £6m/year

Terrible performance incoming...

Just ignoring Villa and City, if we win on Sunday and Chelsea and Forest don't we only need 2-3 points. If tat situation happens we ensure we finish above Chelsea the week after and it would also take a miracle for Forest or Villa to finish above us.

I remember in 02/03 thinking it was going to go to the last day away at West Brom to get top 4. Then in the penultimate game Liverpool lost at home to Man City (Anelka) and Chelsea lost another game we expected them to win and we already had 3rd wrapped up (Viana v Birmingham home). Would be nice again.

I think we get 69 points and qualify with a bit to spare. I've long thought 68 would seal it too. 67 and it might go to GD. Good chance 6th/7th get 65-67 points imo.

They can qualify but not by finishing above us. They're basically 6 points behind with GD. They'd need to pip someone else. I think these kinds of things are why our chances are much better than we want to think.

I still feel like we'll beat Brighton and cruise home in the end.

You writing Villa off? If they drop points this weekend they’ll give up. But I expect them to get 67 points.

Can frame it however you want. Your scenario is perfectly reasonable, but I’m happy to take Everton on the last day given their Goodison ‘farewell’ the week before.

Yeah, I don't think the chances necessarily reflect how nervous we will be, that depends when we pick up the points. Like I said, we only need to stop Forest AND Chelsea catching us. If both of them collect 3 more points than us then we'll have done quite poorly.

Considering our fixtures, 84% is a lot. I think the way our fixtures are laid out makes me more nervous. Our "easiest" game left being the last game of the season isn't helpful. I don't like the idea of going into the last day NEEDING to get anything, even if it's only a point. I'd much rather have the Everton home game this weekend or next and just get 5th or higher guaranteed.

Doesn't extending a players contract actually work in our favour in terms of PSR? Obviously he would be getting a wage increase though so perhaps the difference is barely anything. But I thought a contract extension spreads out the fee we paid originally over the now longer contract. Could be wrong about this but when he signed for £63M that was spread across 6 years, so that's £10.5M per year. If we were to extend his contract to 2030 for example that's 8 years total so his PSR value goes down to just over £7.5M per year. Like I said, I could be totally wrong but this is what I thought was the case for PSR calculations when players extended contracts.

Man City 2-0 Wolves Villa 2-1 Fulham Everton 2-0 Ipswich Leicester 1-1 Southampton Arsenal 2-1 Bournemouth Brentford 2-1 Man United Brighton 1-2 Newcastle West Ham 1-1 Spurs Chelsea 1-2 Liverpool Palace 1-1 Forest

Opta has us at 84% likely to get CL, FWIW. Finishing 4th just behind Man City. Chelsea miss out in 6th. We only need to prevent Chelsea and Forest from both catching us. It doesn't really matter if Man City win all their games. I think even if we only collect 5 or 6 more points we'll do it, but expect us to get 7+.

Disagree Palace were on a 4 match winless run before they slapped up Villa in the Prem. They don't care about the league anymore. They could easily beat this forest side if they cared but they most likely won't. They're record at Old Trafford is better than ours is at the Amex. I dont trust any team that doesn't have a sniff of european football to try and win their games against the 5 UCL competitors. Its the Bournemouth and Fulham game I'm relying on

A new contract for Isak would eat into a chunk of our available spend you would have to think. Not saying it isn't worth it, it's essential we try and tie him down for longer and avoid needing to cash in next summer. But he will move on to more money then we have ever payed for a player if he extends. Edit* in terms of cash available but also the wages to revenue turnover thing you need to comply with for Europe. Which if we want to add more "purples" this summer, must be a tricky balancing act for our recruitment staff.

It's still mathematically possibly but very, very unlikely to happen

I was only 9 and went from Keegan taking over in the milburn paddocks every week for the rest of that season, apart from mackems game which I think was all ticket and the one time I stood in the gallowgate. I was able to sit on the concrete barriers quite peacefully in the main but that pompey game, and grimsby away were utter bedlam.