It's barely too small. around 8 interesting things become more clear.
I did something regarding "# of games in vs. certainty to finish a certain position" a while back, should maybe update it or expand it, but I don't think much has changed since 2010. http://www.newcastle-online.org/nufcforum/index.php/topic,72421.msg2602445.html
Top 3 is determined fairly early - once you're in it after ~ 8 games, you almost unerringly do not finish outside of it. 4th-6th you need half a season before being able to say with a degree of certainty. If you're bottom after 9 games you're almost certain to go down. Determining the rest of the bottom 6 takes about half a season.