Newcastle United supporters are convinced they already know the answer to the question of what needs to be done to save the club from relegation.
Remove Steve Bruce as head coach and whoever replaces him will do a better job, results will improve and a third humiliating drop into the Championship in the space of just 12 miserable years will be avoided. It really is that black and white.
Forget the fact Newcastle are without their three most creative and prolific attacking players - top goalscorer Callum Wilson and the exhilarating Miguel Almiron and Allan Saint-Maximin - and will be until at least the start of April.
Ignore the fact that Newcastle’s first choice centre midfield partnership of Jonjo Shelvey and Isaac Hayden is the same one that played in the Championship in 2016 and dismiss the inconvenient truth that the club decided, long before Bruce was appointed in July 2019, to spend £40m on a striker Joelinton, who cannot score goals and does not look like he ever will.
The raw numbers show that £100m has been spent on players since Bruce took charge and the team have gone backwards. Finishing 13th last season was, they say, a fluke and none of that matters anyway because Newcastle are 16th now, just one point above the relegation zone having won only two of their last 18 games in all competitions.
It is relegation form and it stretches back to the start of December.
And this was all before colourful details of a training ground bust up between Bruce and winger Matt Ritchie were leaked last week, further fanning the flames of discontent with claims several players wanted the manager sacked, along with various other snipes about training schedules and the treatment of dropped goalkeeper Karl Darlow.
True Faith, one of the prominent fanzines on Tyneside, has tweeted every day for the last week to ask if Bruce has resigned yet? Of course, they already know the answer to that too.
But they ask anyway and are joined in the condemnation, ridicule and vilification of Bruce by almost every other podcaster, fan channel and website. The local newspaper, The Chronicle, has stopped short of calling for Bruce to be sacked, but barely hides its disdain for him and the collective despair at form, while painfully highlighting how depressing the situation is.
At any other Premier League club, Bruce would almost certainly have gone, so why is he still there?
What are the reasons behind owner Mike Ashley’s continued backing of a manager very few people wanted when he replaced Rafa Benitez and who so many are demanding is replaced 20 months later?
Not changing manager is not the same thing as doing nothing
Contrary to what many think, Newcastle are not sleepwalking into relegation. If it happens, their eyes will have been wide open throughout. They are making decisions and may well have already made the most important of the lot.
To understand the continued faith in Bruce, you have to remember that Ashley has changed manager twice before in similar situations - in 2009 when Alan Shearer failed to keep them up with eight games remaining and in 2016 when Rafa Benitez failed to do so, despite having ten games in charge.
On the occasions. Newcastle have avoided the drop after being sucked into a relegation battle, they survived by sticking with the man in the dugout. It happened twice under Alan Pardew, Newcastle only securing top flight survival in their penultimate game in 2013, a 2-1 win at QPR.
The following year, Newcastle lost 15 out of 21 games over the course of the second half of the season, but Ashley refused to sack Pardew - despite all four sides of St James’ Park calling for him to do so during a 3-0 win over Cardiff - and Newcastle did enough to stay up.
And again, in 2015, when Newcastle had to beat West Ham in their final game under John Carver, Newcastle avoided falling into the Championship by refusing to replace the manager.
Their form under Carver, leading into that do or die moment against the Hammers, was four wins in 25 games. But when he sacked Steve McClaren in March 2016 to bring in Benitez to save them, they went down.
So, while supporters are angry, demanding change, Ashley sees things through a completely different sort of prism. It partly makes him the man he is. As someone close to him once told Telegraph Sport, “Mike Ashley does not look at the deal that is in front of him, he looks at what that deal looks like four or five moves away…”
And with supporters not in stadiums, Ashley knows that Bruce and his players are cocooned, protected from the distractions of protests and constant chants calling for the manager’s head. There is very little, if any, external pressure being exerted.
Ashley and managing director Lee Charnley know they are taking a risk, but it is a gamble they have won before. Sometimes sticking is better than twisting, especially when you have lost heavily doing the latter.
Loyalty to those he likes
Ashley is ruthless when he needs to be, it is why he has made so much money in his retail empire. He can cut people off if he wants to and will always base his decisions on what is best for him and his business interests.
Relegation would cost him millions potentially. He is still trying to sell the club - although there is no chance of that happening while relegation matters are yet to be decided - and another drop into the Championship will wipe at least £100m of Newcastle’s value and therefore the money he can ask for to part company with it.
He has a lot to lose, as supporters scream at him. Whether he is listening or not is another matter.
Ashley likes Bruce and can discuss football matters with him in a way he never could with Benitez.
When Bruce asked to sign the 28-year-old Callum Wilson for £21m last summer, a deal that went against the club’s transfer policy of not signing players over the age of 28 for vast sums because they have little resale value, he asked Bruce why he wanted him and what the benefits would be.
He listened and told Charnley to make the deal happen. Wilson has scored ten goals in a poor side and is said to be the owner’s favorite player by some distance.
Everton Newcastle United, Premier League Newcastle Unitedâ s Callum Wilson celebrates
Steve Bruce was backed in the transfer market last summer CREDIT: Ian Hodgson
Bruce has put pressure on him behind the scenes to make more signings, but he has never slagged the owner off in public, unlike his predecessor. In turn, when he has explained the financial situation and the losses caused by the pandemic, Bruce has in turn listened and adjusted his expectations accordingly.
After three years of feeling like Benitez was constantly fighting against him and openly challenging his authority and decision making, he has a manager who tries to work with him and it has been a relief when he does not want to be dragged into constant battles at a football club he wants to leave to run itself. The fact it will cost around £4m in compensation if Bruce is sacked is another consideration of course.
Interestingly, when newspaper reports emerged last week detailing the Ritchie row and the civil war in the dressing room, sources told Telegraph Sport he was instinctively protective of Bruce and wanted to help him. He also saw the leaking of information as a betrayal of the manager. If anything, it made him want to stick with him even more.
In the end results will decide everything
Whether Ashley’s faith holds should Newcastle lose to Aston Villa and Brighton remains to be seen. That could make all of the above redundant.
The point is, he wants Bruce to win at least one of these games so that he can keep him in the job. Even if they fail to win either, with Wilson, Almiron and Saint-Maximin set to return after the international break, he could still refuse to fire the manager as results should improve with their three most important players fit and available again. Ashley watched the goalless draw against WBA and saw a team that was still playing for their manager, despite claims to the contrary in the build up to it.
You can never be entirely confident in predicting anything with someone like Ashley, but as of now, the position is steadfast. Newcastle will continue to back Bruce’s judgement, leadership and methods because the club think this is the best way to avoid relegation.
After all, sometimes it is safer to stick and it has worked out in the end for Ashley doing exactly that.
