Stottie

Sell ons are only on profits, no? Yeah, he's been a disaster. The little he's played for us once back from the injury suggests all is not well. He's not been on form and has not been allowed to play himself into it. I saw him as a good moocher like Callum Wilson, and was happy when we signed him. It was an overpay, but so is everyone these days.

Bruno, Wolte and better defensive organization all good. The rest all very meh. Set pieces completely woeful. Pope very lucky.

Everton score, after being denied clear penalty.

Opta now 99% certain a London team with a 60,000+ stadium will be relegated. Stunning mismanagement in both cases. Spurs even had CL money from this year. They've not won in 12 games, so likely its them.

Given his age and minutes played at this level, Osula is a fine prospect. Strikers take much longer to develop these days. There are no more Rooneys and Owens banging them in at eighteen. If we bring others in, it would be fine to loan Osula out for half seasons at a time. Sell him and there's a good chance we'll regret it like Minteh and Anderson. As for who we should be playing now, I've not got a clue. If Howe is deffo staying, then yes build toward next season using whoever Howe has faith in. If Howe is leaving, fuck knows, just try and entertain the fans maybe. I don't mind Wissa being a write off, but big Nick has shown enough to deserve a chance back up front now Bruno is back.

In three hours of football, our goals were a cross that squirmed through a defender who should have cut it out and throughball that was only onside because the opposition CF played it. The first game was against Crystal Palace's B team for sixty minutes. We all want the team to win but that is nowhere near good enough.

I love Eddie as a man and will forever be grateful for the best sustained spell in my long years of following the club, but it ain't working. I don't blame him, but something needs to change. It's become very stale. The worst thing is that many other posters predicted today's result days ago. There will be reasons for what happened today, factors beyond Eddie's control, but I think the die is cast when the pessimists getting proven right week after week. Bournemouth hit the throughball we scored from, that's how bad our attacking play was. We're not losing because of the "bounce of the ball" or from mistakes from the inexperience of youth players we're trying to bed in. None of our youth players are playing.

On Jan 18 we had 32 points off 21 games and were still in 4 competitions, if finishing in the CL places is what "being in the league" means for us. We were were sixth in the league and above Man U on goal difference. I think the Isak thing hit the players, but only for the first few games, before Wissa and Woltemade were signed. The Isak thing was also compounded by Gordon playing striker and being sent off for violent conduct. This was unfortunate and hurt us, but not in a "miss Isak" kind of way. It hurt us in a "best LW and striker banned for three games" way. It hurts to say it, but after the turn of the year, we've entered a slow-motion collapse.

Last 12 in the league, starting Jan 18 with the 0-0 vs. Wolves, is P12 W3 D1 L8 F14 A21 Pts 10 They are mostly single goal defeats, but there has been a clear lack of fight. That's nearly a third of a season.

Even the TV sponsor thinks so.

I see a potential Jamie Vardy in there if persevered with as a striker, but if he wants more money now, and we can bank a big profit, then needs must. I would screw our PSR to keep Bruno or Hall but Gordon is free to go. The Isak saga and his subsequent season have desensitized me to selling players. The main thing is to plan for every departure.

I'd want a higher fee than Liverpool paid for Ekitike. Gordon is proven in a better league and the Champions League. I too was surprised Gordon was not retained as a striker against Palace. We could have played Osula RW.

Hmm, extra gutting we've dropped so many points, because the signs are bad for the end of Liverpool's season. They still have 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th to play as five of their six remaining games. Slot is going to have to make Wirtz plus Isak work, with Isak unfit and Wirtz still struggling. He must have okayed them being bought though, so its on him to get a tune out of them.

Against a team essentially on the beach for 60 minutes. Yep, that was dire.

Is Murphy RB with Tino LB and Hall in midfield? If so, I kind of approve. I can't see how it works as 4-3-3 otherwise

Spurs are averaging 0.22 points per game when Conor Gallagher plays.

I found last summer exhausting, so I am dreading it. I also note that Chelsea and Liverpool probably bought worse than us last summer, despite having more money, bigger wages, and more appeal, meaning they could sign their first choice of targets, including ones we were in for. Our initial target, Pedro, has been the most successful out of all of them. Liverpool get an extra star for selling Luis Diaz, who has put up Mo Salah numbers at Bayern. I know Chelsea's policy is some buy-to-flip-yoof for PSR thing, but hasn't added up to anything particularly satisfying on the field. Certainly not something we'd want to see at NUFC. Its hard to warm to Gittens or Hato or someone when they play less than ten games.

Virgil Van Donkey

It feels like Pope's gone off a cliff. Alisson has too, so he's in good company, but a shame to witness all the same. I hope it does not affect how people remember Pope, because he's been great for us.

Some folk won't listen because its xG, but we've scored 7 goals off 12 xG in the PL this season when a single goal up. Our xG when winning actually goes up, but our finishing has gone to shit. This has left us exposed to comebacks. In that game state, our opponents have 13 goals off the same 12 xG. Had some of them chances gone to Isak, he'd have finished them.

Thanks Johnny, always interested to see this kind of analysis. fwiw, Opta reckon Brentford 55.67 points, Everton, 55.29 points for seventh and eighth, so a couple of points lower than normal. I would have guess a larger dropoff from normal, given the lack of thrashings and likely high points total for the third relegation spot. If we are going to have a shit end to the season, losing to both Forest and West Ham would probably relegate Spurs. Every cloud has a silver lining etc etc.

Things off the field are poor, no doubt about that, but I don't necessarily see them as directly causing the major problems we've had on the pitch. That's unless you assume failing to land Trafford automatically meant shit goalkeeping this season and poor transfer activity meant us failing to convert chances specifically when a goal up. This is probably the biggest reason why we've dropped so many points from winning positions. Here's our xG when we've taken the lead. Same xG for and against (12), but 13 equalizers conceded to only 7 goals extending the lead. Five extra lost leads is 10 points. The equal xG suggests we do not "sit back" when ahead. We've still created as much as our opponents, only our finishing has gone off a cliff when it matters. All that "competing for the title by 2030" stuff from our new chairman is total bollocks, and credit to Simon Jordan for calling it out. However I wouldn't say Eddieball is fundamentally broken, or that we've regressed much from a fifth place trophy=CL level. For all the talk of "disastrous summer" and "signing hopeless attackers" we are fifth top scorers in the league since October 1st, a stretch of 25 games which excludes the Isak shock and the Gordon violent conduct mini-disaster at the beginning of the season. We've outscored Liverpool in those 25 games, a club whose off field people presumably did their job perfectly in spending half a billion and getting exactly the targets they wanted. We've even got more points 36 vs. 34 than Liverpool during that period.

To save anyone clicking on it, the article says eighth place (surely more likely now than seventh) can get Europa League. This is in contravention to all earlier analysis I've seen and what AI told me. Such analysis and AI said FIFA rules meant that the best a team finishing eighth off that league position alone was Conference League. For it to happen, a top 7 team has to win the FA Cup, but that looks likely anyway given who's still in it. The harder condition is about Liverpool and Villa winning in Europe and finishing in certain league positions.

Good time for a break I think. There is still enough meaningful football to be played, so no need to think about decisions yet. Someone may have pointed it out, but we were in two draws recently, Carabao semis and CL quarters. If my maths holds, we had a 66% chance of playing Chelsea over two legs in at least one of them, 100% minus the no Chelsea option, which is 50% (Barca) in the CL, multiplied by 2/3 (non Chelsea) for the Carabao. The chance of playing Chelsea in both was 16%. If we draw and beat Chelsea in the Carabao, we go to the final and the mackems game gets postponed until Bruno back, one-game-a-week time. If we draw Chelsea in the CL, maybe we win, maybe we don't, but we do not lose the second leg 7-2 just before the mackems game. We've not been good this season, I'm not suggesting that for a second, but I don't think we've had much luck. Not only did Wissa get injured on international duty, he did enough to score in both games before the injury. That's the player we bought, even if its not the condition he is in now.

Ramsdale's been a downgrade on Dubravka. It's a real problem, which has compounded all the other problems.