Checko

OMG double pivot to play out from the back against a press! Finally!

Always thought Kluivert's looked dangerous when I've seen him too. If we lose they're only actually a point behind us, they're doing really well right now!

Can definitely see Howe hanging out in a hot tub with Stormzy, and wouldn't surprise me in the least if Pardew turned up and decided to join them uninvited.

He's also been unsustainably clinical this year. 10 non-penalty goals from 4.2 non penalty xG! Previous years he's underperformed so there's no consistent trend of him being super clinical. Looks like Brentford fans say he used to be a bit wasteful in front of goal and has got more clinical, which is consistent with the stats. Question is will he continue to be clinical going forward? He seems to consistently get about 9.5 range for expected goals (including penalties) and 8.5 for expected assists. That's pretty productive, especially for a team like Brentford. Brentford fans love him though, from their forum they seem to be resigned to him leaving this summer with a lot saying he's their favourite ever player for them. He's apparently a top person as well. My guess is you'd be looking at a fee closer to 60 million than 50 so who knows if we could even afford him should be want to go for him.

When I've seen him (which admittedly is not much) he's struck me as a very good player, but not necessarily a really elite player, I haven't seen that Olise/Guler level of classiness in his game for example. Yet Brentford would quite rightly charge elite player money for him. That's my issue really. He's clearly effective, PL proven, good injury record, can cover LW and striker if needed. I'm sure he'd be a good to very good, low-risk signing and we really can't afford to flop on buys. But it would be a big chunk of cash though and the main issue would be could we invest that big chunk of cash elsewhere and get more for it? Ultimately though he looks like a kickass pirate so I'd be all in.

Should do tbf, would be a bit of a mad system to not take into account whether there's a goalkeeper in front of the striker or not: "Opta’s xG model [...] The model uses several variables from before, and up to, the exact moment the shot was taken. It evaluates how over 20 variables affect the likelihood of a goal being scored. Some of the most important factors are listed below: Distance to the goal. Angle to the goal. Goalkeeper position, giving us information on the likelihood that they’re able to make a save. [...]" https://theanalyst.com/2023/08/what-is-expected-goals-xg xG is meant to measure how many goals were likely to be scored from the shots that were taken, as far as I understand it. It doesn't say who played better [though it can imply it] because you could be crap and get gifted a couple of gilt edge chances with a poor back pass, dumb penalty etc that boosts the xG. Similarly you can carve a team open 5 times and each time the striker's a trimmed toenail short of putting a cross in a empty net, but no xG as no shot. xG is useful, but it has its limitations. I think it's most useful for evaluating how clinical players are over a long period of time. It's overly obessing with xG & thinking it's the be all and end all that's for nonces.

Karius just played one league game didn't he? Plus the cup final, but this was just PL.

Yeah, so Miggy was, say £21,000,000 when he signed in Jan 2019 on a 5 1/2 year deal So every year about 3.8 milllion off the books (21,000,000 / 5.5 =3.81818181) After 4 years signed a new 3 1/2 year deal. so about £15,000,000 off the books at that point (3.8 x4). £6 million left. Remaining 6 million comes off over the length of his new contract, about 1.7 million a year. Two years later he's sold, about £3,500,000 has come off that final £6,000,000 so my guess is about £2.5 million remaining on his value that will count againt net profit in the books. Technically I think all this stuff is done on a daily rate (there are some accountants on here who will know better) so the above won't be quite right, but should be accurate enough for internet forum purposes.

Haven't seen much of Murillo but I saw Forest fans were raving about him last year and he seems to be doing brilliantly this year, would love him here. Plus I'd love to see people's minds get absolutely blown when they realise two centre backs who are the same-footedness can actually play together. Also the more Brazilians the better.

Mods, please change thread title to 'Alexander Isak: Would be the perfect signing for Arsenal, dontcha know? (Everyone)'

According to Fbref Mbeumo is number 4 on their list of similar players to Murphy. That said Bruno Fernandes is no. 10 so I'd take it with a heart attack's worth of salt. Not sure why I even bothered to mention it really.

He was a bit of a legend in Atlanta, would be nice for him to go back there.

Interesting he came on the wing, though they might move big Jow out there and keep Willock CM (or did Jow come off for Miley at the same time?) Looks like he might need to be wing cover now with Barnes injured and Miggy potentially going. That opens up more chances for Miley to get some time at CM.

Just saw Craig Hope's Wolves match review and he said he's expecting movement on Miggy to Atlanta today.

Crazy Howe things can change in a month or so. 7th December: "What isn't a matter of opinion though is the statistic that reads no wins in last four games and just two in the eleven most recent Premier League outings. Three years into the "project", today was a reflection of our status. We remain what we always have been: routinely haphazard, occasionally inspired but without evidence of any real solid progression." - https://www.nufc.com/2024-25html/2024-12-07brentford-a.html Now we've won 9 in a row, 2-0 lead in the league cup semi final after the away leg. 4th in the league. Football, bloody hell!

Pretty good overall. First few minutes they looked good but barely anything after that. We've been largely in control.That said they've been playing it long and we have two massive fuckers at CB that helps. They've also had a couple of decent chances on the counter to be fair and we haven't exactly been carving them open, but on the balance of play I'd say we deserve the lead, although there's been a bit of sloppiness from Gordon and Isak. Still, thank god for Isak at the end because Dubs ain't leaving his line for no bastard. Also I'm gonna say I like the fact the ref has on the whole not blown up for little things and encouraged the game to flow.

Dewsbury Hall sounds like a second rate period drama. Not interested. It would be interesting, if we don't spend and have a little PSR leeway, to see if we can profit from teams desperate to sell in June.

Had a look at his stats, pretty crazy that in 21/2 and 22/3 he scored 9 goals in 67 appearences for Burnley, us and Forest. Last couple of seasons at the ages of 31, 32, 33 he's had his best PL years with 28 goals in 52 PL appearences [28 in 58 appearences all comps]. 4 goals from 4.9 xG in the league for us from 1773 minutes played (in the league at least). So well within statistical variance. Interesting thing here is how little xG he was getting. We were either not making chances for him or he wasn't getting on the end of stuff, though some of his minutes, particularly near the end, were just to come on and see out games. Last couple of years: 27 league goals from 19.4 xG. This year it's 13 goals from 7.4 x. Not including penalties it's 11 goals from 5.9 xG. He's scored almost twice as many as you'd expect from the chances he's shot from. Crazy clinical. This must be a massive reason for Forest's success this year (along with a sold defence), Pardew-style profiting from an overperforming striker as we did with Ba and Cisse. Seems a good bloke as well so good on him. I guess if there's one place you'd expect Wood to thrive it'd be Forest.

Think he'd probably be absolutely fine if he got a bit of a run of games. CB's so rarely get subbed you just don't get any game time unless you're the starter. If we sell him and make some money then fine, but that just leaves us with a ton of old centre backs, Botman aside.

We're going to be the Steve Parish in this negotiation

I think Arsenal were punished enough by not sending him off so I doubt it.

Now we've gotta go a month without him how do people think our depth at wing looks?

Isak's now a world class striker in the beginning of his peak period. Realistically this summer or next he'll be making a big decision as to where he wants to play his career-defining years. Financials aside I'm sure he'll want to be challenging for league titles and trophies. Hopefully we continue to do well and he feels he can do it with us.

Schar or Botman is the only selection dilemma here. Burn will start, not because Eddie loves him unconditionally but because he's been excellent and doesn't deserve to lose his place.

I think Miley's a lot faster than he's being given credit for. Like Big Jow he's leggy with a long stride length so he doesn't look like he's going fast because his feet aren't a blur, but he can cover good ground.