15 games in. Where will we finish?

[colinmk]

I think we will end up around 15th. If the players would kindly stop getting the silly suspensions and most can stay fairly injury free I don't see why we can't aim for mid-table. It's a real shame we lost Ben Arfa this season because there would be every chance we could of broken into the top 10 with that extra bit of quality imo.

[Beren]

http://i.imgur.com/bAcle.gif	http://i.imgur.com/45EJ5.gif	http://i.imgur.com/g3lGN.gif
1999-2000	2000-2001	2002-2003
http://i.imgur.com/1lApg.gif	http://i.imgur.com/6kDRv.gif	http://i.imgur.com/ypaw3.gif
2003-2004	2004-2005	2005-2006
http://i.imgur.com/25HNy.gif	http://i.imgur.com/PwvfU.gif	http://i.imgur.com/vrEaW.gif
2006-2007	2007-2008	2008-2009
http://i.imgur.com/uBFQj.gif	http://i.imgur.com/BC70b.gif
2009-2010	2010-2011

 

Shit as our home form has been, our results don't really match the path of any relegated team in recent history, and we come from a much stronger base than most newly promoted teams.  I'll do one for newly promoted sides, although they already feature prominently above because most yo-yo.  After 15 games I think your fate is pretty much sealed in regards to top half/bottom half.  Still going with 9th-11th. 

 

Love your graphs

 

It looks like we're trying to spell something...

[Neil]

You won't thank me for saying this but I think you're in a very similar position to Sunderland. Neither will have serious relegation troubles, and top 10 isn't unrealistic. I think I said 15th at the start of the season... I'm going to stick with that for the time being, but I can easily see you finishing a few places higher than that. Either way it would represent a successful season.

 

I think we're as good as your lot tbh.

 

I disagree, but it's not an outrageous suggestion as it would have been before the season. I think we'll still come good but we're fucking ourselves over right at the moment.

[wormy]

If we finish closer to top 10 than relegation this season, with the right investment, we could probably be close to Everton. Right now though, I'd guess there'll be a few places between us come the end of the season.

[Incognito]

You won't thank me for saying this but I think you're in a very similar position to Sunderland. Neither will have serious relegation troubles, and top 10 isn't unrealistic. I think I said 15th at the start of the season... I'm going to stick with that for the time being, but I can easily see you finishing a few places higher than that. Either way it would represent a successful season.

 

I think we're as good as your lot tbh.

 

I disagree, but it's not an outrageous suggestion as it would have been before the season. I think we'll still come good but we're fucking ourselves over right at the moment.

 

Football's all about opinions,and I respect yours. .No matter how wrong it is 

[UV]

Shit as our home form has been, our results don't really match the path of any relegated team in recent history, and we come from a much stronger base than most newly promoted teams.  I'll do one for newly promoted sides, although they already feature prominently above because most yo-yo.  After 15 games I think your fate is pretty much sealed in regards to top half/bottom half.  Still going with 9th-11th. 

 

Good work, however I think doing it on league position can distort it as it all depends on how all the other teams are doing and this year the table is especially congested. I realise that all that matters is league position at the end of the season, but I think doing the analysis on points per games played would give a better picture of how we are doing relative to how previously promoted teams have done early and then later in the season and may put some perspective on our early season performance and how it is likely* to tail off.

 

 

*I think - I've no idea how it would turn out as I've not done the analysis myself I'm just going on gut feeling, it might prove me wrong but I'd be interested to know either way.

[Guest SuperShola!]

7th, but, we'll do it on the last game of the season and somehow, end up relegating Sunderland.

 

[JH]

You won't thank me for saying this but I think you're in a very similar position to Sunderland. Neither will have serious relegation troubles, and top 10 isn't unrealistic. I think I said 15th at the start of the season... I'm going to stick with that for the time being, but I can easily see you finishing a few places higher than that. Either way it would represent a successful season.

 

I think we're as good as your lot tbh.

 

I disagree, but it's not an outrageous suggestion as it would have been before the season. I think we'll still come good but we're f***ing ourselves over right at the moment.

 

Football's all about opinions,and I respect yours. .No matter how wrong it is 

 

Everton are better than us, like. They're just going through a ridiculously shit patch.

[BottledDog]

I would bank on the more established teams having the ability to get runs of results together over us, so would be surprised if we ended up outside the bottom 3rd tbh. A few mental resuts still doesn't mean we are much more than a newly promoted team struggling to win at the moment.

 

How come you are willing to write off our results as 'mental' but not anyone else's? If anything, the better teams starting to do the business is good for us because we already have a decent point/GD advantage over the bottom three.

 

I meant the more established but poor teams ability to scrape important results (not the better teams) would be my worry. I think we have great character, but our capacity to lose to anyone outweighs our rare ability to pull off the odd great result.

 

 

Anyway, quit questioning shit - I'm just trying to balace out the positivity.

[Ocho]

You won't thank me for saying this but I think you're in a very similar position to Sunderland. Neither will have serious relegation troubles, and top 10 isn't unrealistic. I think I said 15th at the start of the season... I'm going to stick with that for the time being, but I can easily see you finishing a few places higher than that. Either way it would represent a successful season.

 

I think we're as good as your lot tbh.

 

I disagree, but it's not an outrageous suggestion as it would have been before the season. I think we'll still come good but we're f***ing ourselves over right at the moment.

 

Football's all about opinions,and I respect yours. .No matter how wrong it is 

 

Everton are better than us, like. They're just going through a ridiculously s*** patch.

 

Worrying thing about Everton is the lack of goals in their team.  So much reliance on Cahill to produce the goals, as their strikers are pretty awful.

[Neil]

You won't thank me for saying this but I think you're in a very similar position to Sunderland. Neither will have serious relegation troubles, and top 10 isn't unrealistic. I think I said 15th at the start of the season... I'm going to stick with that for the time being, but I can easily see you finishing a few places higher than that. Either way it would represent a successful season.

 

I think we're as good as your lot tbh.

 

I disagree, but it's not an outrageous suggestion as it would have been before the season. I think we'll still come good but we're f***ing ourselves over right at the moment.

 

Football's all about opinions,and I respect yours. .No matter how wrong it is 

 

Everton are better than us, like. They're just going through a ridiculously s*** patch.

 

Worrying thing about Everton is the lack of goals in their team.  So much reliance on Cahill to produce the goals, as their strikers are pretty awful.

 

Yep.

 

That's all I'm saying as I don't want to derail the thread or depress myself.

[Stifler]

7th, but, we'll do it on the last game of the season and somehow, end up relegating Sunderland.

 

Us only drawing to WBA which puts WBA into 17 place and Sunderland into 18th?

[Dr Venkman]

Not wanting to spark up *that* argument again, but I'm amazed at how much positivity there is. How anyone can see us finishing higher than 10th with home form as it currently is.

 

Because we're currently 9th with home form as it currently is, the home form can only get better.

 

On the other hand look at some of the home games that have gone - Wigan, Blackpool, Blackburn, Stoke, Fulham = 2 points. Stating the obvious but we've played games there that we should have got a minimum of 9 points from and we can't play those teams again. West Ham and Wolves are the only obvious home fixtures left that we can look at as "bankers" if anyone dares look at any game in that way.

 

be realistic though, we play better against teams with more quality

 

We have done thus far, but how confident are you that trend will continue? I don't think we can rely on that to keep us in the top half, I think we'll be ok, but not better than 15th.

 

we've played better against more quality teams and repeatedly lost to shite for as long as i can remember.

[Guest BlacknWhiteArmy]

14th/15th (Hopeful)

[Kaizero]

http://i.imgur.com/bAcle.gif	http://i.imgur.com/45EJ5.gif	http://i.imgur.com/g3lGN.gif
1999-2000	2000-2001	2002-2003
http://i.imgur.com/1lApg.gif	http://i.imgur.com/6kDRv.gif	http://i.imgur.com/ypaw3.gif
2003-2004	2004-2005	2005-2006
http://i.imgur.com/25HNy.gif	http://i.imgur.com/PwvfU.gif	http://i.imgur.com/vrEaW.gif
2006-2007	2007-2008	2008-2009
http://i.imgur.com/uBFQj.gif	http://i.imgur.com/BC70b.gif
2009-2010	2010-2011

 

Shit as our home form has been, our results don't really match the path of any relegated team in recent history, and we come from a much stronger base than most newly promoted teams.  I'll do one for newly promoted sides, although they already feature prominently above because most yo-yo.  After 15 games I think your fate is pretty much sealed in regards to top half/bottom half.  Still going with 9th-11th. 

 

Love your graphs

 

It looks like we're trying to spell something...

 

M I .... K E ?

[hakka]

I think it was Thomas that came up with the stats that showed that over the last 10 seasons the teams that were in 9th after 15 games all finished 10th or higher, with the exception of 1 season where a team finished 13th.  I know stats can't always be relied on, but that's pretty consistent. People could argue that if we lose Carroll or another decent player in a position we are weak for cover that we will plummet, but in reality that should have happend to a lot of teams in our position over the last 10 seasons and they dealt with it.  I trust Hughton to buy in January, maybe even let someone go who just isn't getting a game like Lovenkrands, Xisco or maybe even Smith.  I doubt we will spend much, probably £5m tops, and it has to be a striker we get in.

 

I think we are nailed on for a mid table finish now.

[Guest SuperShola!]

7th, but, we'll do it on the last game of the season and somehow, end up relegating Sunderland.

 

Us only drawing to WBA which puts WBA into 17 place and Sunderland into 18th?

 

Aye, why not.

[thomas]

Shit as our home form has been, our results don't really match the path of any relegated team in recent history, and we come from a much stronger base than most newly promoted teams.  I'll do one for newly promoted sides, although they already feature prominently above because most yo-yo.  After 15 games I think your fate is pretty much sealed in regards to top half/bottom half.  Still going with 9th-11th. 

 

Good work, however I think doing it on league position can distort it as it all depends on how all the other teams are doing and this year the table is especially congested. I realise that all that matters is league position at the end of the season, but I think doing the analysis on points per games played would give a better picture of how we are doing relative to how previously promoted teams have done early and then later in the season and may put some perspective on our early season performance and how it is likely* to tail off.

 

 

*I think - I've no idea how it would turn out as I've not done the analysis myself I'm just going on gut feeling, it might prove me wrong but I'd be interested to know either way.

Well statto won't automatically generate it for me so I might run a script to pick that information up myself tonight.  On a lunch break and don't have time to manually do it all.

 

The thing with PPG is early results will swing it even more wildly than league position before it settles down. 

Here's our relegation season after 15 games - 1 PPG.

http://i.imgur.com/5Oirp.png

Here's our current season after 15 games - 1.27 PPG (would see us end on 48 points, if it stays the same)

http://i.imgur.com/VFnrO.png

 

About the congestion bit, I'll form the graphs later but this year, at this point, isn't really that much more congested than prior years.  League position and ppg are obviously linked, so I don't know how it's not a good indicator. 

 

edit: each horizontal line is roughly 4.75 points at the end of the season, e.g. 1 PPG is 8 lines up, 8 * 4.75 is 38.  Our current ppg would be ~ 48 points.  Our relegation ppg was right at 1, which would have kept us up, we actually got a bit worse. 

[leffe186]

You sum it up for me, Dave. This season is probably one of the best to have been promoted into. It's so open, there's no clubs truly performing above others past the top 5. It's all a bit over the shop. If we can't take advantage of this, it's not the end of the world, but a shame. That's why I think we can manage at least mid-table. If we can get one or two faces in in January, avoid major injuries and find a bit of home form, no reason we should be anywhere near scrapping for survival. But it's all ifs, we just don't know what'll happen this season.

 

Yep. A mid-table finish this season and I think we'd have the pulling power again to attract players to at least be where Everton & Villa have been in the next 2-3 years.

 

There's a lot of money needed to reinforce the squad, but Carroll's looking more and more like the player you build a team around. He's exactly the player that both Villa and Everton would kill for. We'd find him pretty useful too.

 

I just fear for you if injuries start kicking in. Us and Villa each have 11 injuries now. Can you imagine what your first team would look like in those conditions? It was scary enough when Tiote and Barton were missing.

 

It's not like its 11 first teamers for Spurs though.  Woodgate and King permanently injured and shouldn't be relied upon by anyone; dos Santos, Keane, Bentley, O'Hara, and even Jenas to an extent, aren't really first teamers.

 

Through a combination of injury and suspension we've recently had out: Ben Arfa, Nolan, Tiote, Williamson, Coloccini, Barton, Harper and you may as well include Gosling and Ryan Taylor if you can include the likes of Woodgate.

 

It's not a competition!! I'm just illustrating how easily and quickly you can have 7 or so injuries/suspensions, and that if Ashley doesn't reinforce a couple of positions in Jan things could get messy. Smith and Nolan in CM looked scary.

[Minhosa]

I think this year, with it's freak results and congested table, could be the year that 40 points doesn't guarantee safety.

 

On that basis and the fact we're constantly dropping points against poor sides at home I still think we'll be in a struggle for 17th.

 

On our day we're top half material. Off our day and we're relegation fodder. That form, over the course of a season, will surely mean bottom third - just a case of where imho.

 

[Wullie]

I think this year, with it's freak results and congested table could be the year that 40 points doesn't guarantee safety.

 

On that basis and the fact we're constantly dropping points against poor sides at home I still think we'll be in a struggle for 17th.

 

On our day we're top half material. Off our day and we're relegation fodder. That form, over the course of a season, will surely mean bottom third - just a case of where imho.

 

 

Surely it'll mean 9th?

[Minhosa]

I think this year, with it's freak results and congested table could be the year that 40 points doesn't guarantee safety.

 

On that basis and the fact we're constantly dropping points against poor sides at home I still think we'll be in a struggle for 17th.

 

On our day we're top half material. Off our day and we're relegation fodder. That form, over the course of a season, will surely mean bottom third - just a case of where imho.

 

 

Surely it'll mean 9th?

 

- fair point. I was waiting for someone to flag that as I couldn't be arsed to go into this in my original post but........................

 

I would think that during the last few months of the season the top 6 will establish themselves with a run of form meaning chances of an upset will be less likely. Equally, the teams we should have taken points off at home will now need to be played away when they're likely to be scrapping for their lives.

 

Stating the obvious but this season could go either way - a cracking result would be 14th and above - relegation an obvious disaster.

 

Much depends on the strength of the squad  but also on how the league pans out and whether normal business resumes after Xmas.

 

This season is a freak.

 

[sparta]

probably 12th

[Colocho]

14th.

[midds]

15th.

 

Stay up by 7 points or so.