TRon Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Pretty sure Southampton only had about half the debt we do. The debt is a huge issue that we don't really know anything about and I haven't seen the media mention anything about it, what Ashley wants done with it is very possibly a big sticking point. Is it really as simple as just adding it into the value of the club so that nothing will be owed post-takeover? Not just the debt but different people value businesses differently. They are loads of different valuation mechanics that can be used so it only really matters what model PCP use to value NUFC. Somebody else might come along and value us at £350m but, until that time, it's pretty much irrelevant. I think personally, that PCP are valuing low because they recognise they might have a championship club on their hands at that price come the summer. The price will probably drop again after two weeks, then the negotiations might start again in the summer if we stay up. Assuming PCP don't move on to another club. If that is the case, I'd caution PCP against relying on that method being successful. Ashley is an inherent gambler with a huge ego. His most memorable time whilst owning NUFC I would hazard a guess would be the Carroll and Sissoko deals. He gambled, he won. His worst times the endless shite signings that cost him money and relegations. He probably regrets those much more than the abuse. If you back him into a 'take it or leave it' corner, he'll walk away every time. He thinks he knows best and, in fairness to him, he's a self-made billionaire which indicates that he probably has been right more than wrong in other areas of his professional life. He can also afford to gamble. Not many can. If you were owned by a group of shareholders or family members there would inherently be some who are more risk averse than others, that's nature's way. He is not answerable to anybody else. There is nobody to rein him in, nobody who is allowed a voice or an opinion. It's no coincidence that he surrounds himself by people who tell him what he likes to hear. He likes to think he knows best and their job is to ratify that. If it goes wrong, we'll all get pissed together and they'll tell him how funny it all is and that he was right all along. That, for me, is the attraction to a new owner. No matter who comes in, they won't be a rich man-child like him. They will use almost certainly use a rational basis for decisions and take on board the views of others qualified in their respective fields. This bloke has been winging it the whole time. All I know is that he's been selling this club for at least five years, and he's not managed to agree a price with any number of interested parties. That suggests to me, it's his valuation which is always too high. That said, I think there's still a chance this is just a case of brinkmanship, and there could be a compromise price reached, probably far below what the fat wonder was hoping to achieve, but nevertheless a realistic one. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
robm Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 As described by someone else but it makes sense...... He's like the owner of a vintage car that needs doing up. He knows done up it'll be worth a lot more than it currently is but he doesn't want to have to pay to do it up but wants to sell it taking onto consideration what it COULD be worth. With nowt to go on (no, not like that bull dyke hair'd little mackem)I think this is the sticking point. Funny was thinking exactly this vintage car metaphor today. He's a chancer who is trying to get top money for something which needs major spending to be worth his valuation. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaydnNUFC Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I still don't believe he has any intention of selling the club unless he gets an obscene offer which, let's face it, he won't. The fact that he has openly put out a statement saying the club is for sale, negotiations have been going on for weeks and the Sky "interview" was practically an advert saying "please come and take this club off of my hands", suggest that he does have intention of selling it. The risk of relegation coupled with the current squad that we have put the club miles away from his £380m valuation or whatever it is. He won't get a better deal for it than a bid in the range of £250m-£320m. He openly put out a statement in 2008 to say the club was up for sale as well, only it wasn't really. Plus his interview was a way of sticking 2 fingers up to Rafa and the fans. Can't fully recall the 2008 statement or whenever it was, but this must seem different to then. The Sky interview was that, but journalists and fans alike managed to encapsulate it as an advert for the club. The whole thing was staged, there is a reason why he chose to say 'if someone wants to take this seat and fund NUFC' et cetera in it. He wants out. It makes financial sense for him to do so, as well as just sense in general. If you want to sell a football club I don't think the way to advertise the fact is to go on TV. It would be done through business channels etc. It's not like billionaires would be watching his interview and get a brainwave from it. Similar to him putting a public email address out there last time Everyone seemed to agree that the interview was what it was; a response to Rafa's press leaks and to garner interest. Might not be the most orthodox method, but has he ever been normal? Can't remember anything takeover related in the aftermath of 08/09 so can't really comment on the email or any patter to do with that. It's universally agreed amongst respected NE journalists that he wants a sale. Good enough for me tbh. And that's not taking into account the factors that point towards him wanting out. It's just his valuation is fucking stupid. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ElCid Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I think we are definitely worth more than £250m. You could argue, or it could be argued when it comes to valuation, that the club sold Andy Carroll for £35m... Potentially the club is a billion dollar business in terms of assets, potential growth, future income etc. What other business could sell an asset that cost relatively little for £35m quid? Now I understand that's not how it works and that there are lots of permutations involved, but howay, we are talking about a cash cow here, an untapped one with unlimited potential. Invest even the TV money into players and you will see a huge upturn in terms of revenue. I reckon Ashley doesn't have the fight in him to keep the club as an ongoing concern nor the money, that much is obvious. The club is at its most valuable right now and I would be looking for £300m + which I reckon is what he's after and rightly so. Sadly, I can see PCP not giving into that and the club being withdrawn from sale until the summer and by then we may lose Rafa and even be a league down which will f*** everything up. Hopefully a compromise will be met. You can’t go on potential as the club might be in the championship in five months time and worth less than 150 million if not even less. I honestly think at this moment of time with the current position, the lack of quality in the squad and the possible financial implications of the HMRC case with the threat of points/league deductions the offer is very fair and right. Ashley still makes a profit whereas by playing stupid he stands to lose a fortune. Will it happen I honestly don’t think so and imho we will be relegated and he will be left with a clubs value worth probably 150 million less than what he currently thinks if not more, having to find a new manager and the support revolting. Only one person will lose from this stand off and that’s Ashley Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minhosa Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Pretty sure Southampton only had about half the debt we do. The debt is a huge issue that we don't really know anything about and I haven't seen the media mention anything about it, what Ashley wants done with it is very possibly a big sticking point. Is it really as simple as just adding it into the value of the club so that nothing will be owed post-takeover? Not just the debt but different people value businesses differently. They are loads of different valuation mechanics that can be used so it only really matters what model PCP use to value NUFC. Somebody else might come along and value us at £350m but, until that time, it's pretty much irrelevant. I think personally, that PCP are valuing low because they recognise they might have a championship club on their hands at that price come the summer. The price will probably drop again after two weeks, then the negotiations might start again in the summer if we stay up. Assuming PCP don't move on to another club. If that is the case, I'd caution PCP against relying on that method being successful. Ashley is an inherent gambler with a huge ego. His most memorable time whilst owning NUFC I would hazard a guess would be the Carroll and Sissoko deals. He gambled, he won. His worst times the endless shite signings that cost him money and relegations. He probably regrets those much more than the abuse. If you back him into a 'take it or leave it' corner, he'll walk away every time. He thinks he knows best and, in fairness to him, he's a self-made billionaire which indicates that he probably has been right more than wrong in other areas of his professional life. He can also afford to gamble. Not many can. If you were owned by a group of shareholders or family members there would inherently be some who are more risk averse than others, that's nature's way. He is not answerable to anybody else. There is nobody to rein him in, nobody who is allowed a voice or an opinion. It's no coincidence that he surrounds himself by people who tell him what he likes to hear. He likes to think he knows best and their job is to ratify that. If it goes wrong, we'll all get pissed together and they'll tell him how funny it all is and that he was right all along. That, for me, is the attraction to a new owner. No matter who comes in, they won't be a rich man-child like him. They will use almost certainly use a rational basis for decisions and take on board the views of others qualified in their respective fields. This bloke has been winging it the whole time. All I know is that he's been selling this club for at least five years, and he's not managed to agree a price with any number of interested parties. That suggests to me, it's his valuation which is always too high. That said, I think there's still a chance this is just a case of brinkmanship, and there could be a compromise price reached, probably far below what the fat wonder was hoping to achieve, but nevertheless a realistic one. That's because nobody has realised that you need to make him think he's got the best end of the deal. For all we know they've all gone down the 'take it or leave it' route and that's why we're stuck with him. One thing is for sure, he's clearly not an easy bloke to deal with because he's still here. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlies Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Nowt new Amanda Staveley’s Newcastle takeover in doubt after negotiations stalemate www.telegraph.co.uk Newcastle United takeover talks have reached a stalemate that could see the collapse of Amanda Staveley’s bid to buy the club from Mike Ashley. Staveley had a bid of less than £300m turned down more than a fortnight ago and has not returned with an improved offer since, despite being told that she was nowhere near the asking price with her initial approach. Instead, there has been a slight change in the terms of payment, with the money offered in one lump sum, rather than in performance-related instalments, but the gap between their respective valuations remains a huge barrier to a deal being done. Given Staveley was told the opening bid was not thought to be a serious offer, the failure to improve it has prompted hopes of that takeover can be completed to fade dramatically. Ashley has even started to question whether she is serious about buying the club because of the lack of progress since the opening bid was made, although those close to Staveley insist she is merely negotiating a fair price. Given Ashley’s track record in business, she may well be disappointed as he has rarely backed down. Mike Ashley had been hoping to prompt a rival bid Credit: Getty images As revealed by Telegraph Sport, Ashley had been hoping initial contact from another interested party last week would lead to a rival bid, but those talks have also failed to progress and Staveley’s offer remains the only one on the table. A source close to the talks has told Telegraph Sport that both Ashley and Staveley are refusing to budge and the deal could be wrecked by the fact neither wants to be seen to buckle as the haggle over a price. A compromise price of around £300m could be achieved, but at the moment Ashley has stated he wants well in excess of that figure and is waiting for Staveley to make the next move. In turn, Staveley has denied reports that she will walk away from the deal if he does not accept the offer that is currently on the table. That has frustrated Ashley but he will not walk away from the negotiations at this stage, despite previously stating that if he did not find a buyer before Christmas he would take the club off the market. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 He's a piss taking fat bastard doing what he does best. Taking the piss. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikon Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Will take fucking ages before we get the news that there'll be no deal. Business as usual.... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
henke Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Divvent worry lads, it'll happen before new year. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wallsendmag Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I still don't believe he has any intention of selling the club unless he gets an obscene offer which, let's face it, he won't. The fact that he has openly put out a statement saying the club is for sale, negotiations have been going on for weeks and the Sky "interview" was practically an advert saying "please come and take this club off of my hands", suggest that he does have intention of selling it. The risk of relegation coupled with the current squad that we have put the club miles away from his £380m valuation or whatever it is. He won't get a better deal for it than a bid in the range of £250m-£320m. He openly put out a statement in 2008 to say the club was up for sale as well, only it wasn't really. Plus his interview was a way of sticking 2 fingers up to Rafa and the fans. Can't fully recall the 2008 statement or whenever it was, but this must seem different to then. The Sky interview was that, but journalists and fans alike managed to encapsulate it as an advert for the club. The whole thing was staged, there is a reason why he chose to say 'if someone wants to take this seat and fund NUFC' et cetera in it. He wants out. It makes financial sense for him to do so, as well as just sense in general. http://www.nufc.com/html/2008-09html/ashley-statement.html Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyn davies Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Will take f***ing ages before we get the news that there'll be no deal. Business as usual.... bit like Brexit then Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledGeordie Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 On course to delivering his most crushing blow yet.......fucking off the takeover and then screwing Rafa in January again. The second part would potentially send us down, even for him you'd have to say it would be ridiculous because he must know we're on a precipice again. The joys Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakey jake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 If this doesn't go through its gonna hurt more than any relegation or any loss to the mackems ever could Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmojorisin75 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 If this doesn't go through its gonna hurt more than any relegation or any loss to the mackems ever could It's been said already many times but if we don't get sold now and there aren't mass walkouts/protests we might as well just start following another sport or team. I think he already knows he's beat us as a fan base tbh but that would really cement it for him. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superior Acuña Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Giggs? https://twitter.com/CaulkinTheTimes/status/937984866603462656 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoreboard82 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 He simply can't think hanging on to the club and running the risk of another relegation can be financially beneficial surely. Worryingly i get the impression with him that he'd rather lose money than let someone get the upper hand over him. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikon Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 They seem to have fucking a lot to talk about. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlito Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Ashley screening his calls obviously Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hakka Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just feels like this isn't going to work out. Obvs both sides want best deal for them, but gut feel is PCP have a ceiling of around £375m budget and from that need to buy the club, spend a chunk like £50m and deal with wages from that until next Prem gravy train arrives if we stay up. It doesn't look like they can or want go beyond £300m for the club sale. I think Ashley, again, is thinking to hold out. Just like last January he got lucky, he thinks he can sell the club for his price or stay up and get the extra 100m on the cheap. Going down and losing Rafa is the gamble lost but he's shown nothing after twice going down like he is afraid of that outcome. It's worth the punt to him. Praying I'm wrong and perhaps our slide down the table forces our sale quicker. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ElCid Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just feels like this isn't going to work out. Obvs both sides want best deal for them, but gut feel is PCP have a ceiling of around £375m budget and from that need to buy the club, spend a chunk like £50m and deal with wages from that until next Prem gravy train arrives if we stay up. It doesn't look like they can or want go beyond £300m for the club sale. I think Ashley, again, is thinking to hold out. Just like last January he got lucky, he thinks he can sell the club for his price or stay up and get the extra 100m on the cheap. Going down and losing Rafa is the gamble lost but he's shown nothing after twice going down like he is afraid of that outcome. It's worth the punt to him. Praying I'm wrong and perhaps our slide down the table forces our sale quicker. Thing is why should they when it's not worth that extra 50 million - would you pay an extra 50K on a house just because the owner thinks it's worth it - no you would move on and look at other options which is what PCP will do unless Ashley really wants to get out now which looks like it is not the case. It has nothing to do with what they can or cannot afford - they have a value and won't go drastically above that and why should they due to one mans greed. Thing is in this scenario theireare 2 losers; the fans and Ashley as come 12 months there is a very strong chance that he will be the owner of a championship club worth half the current value. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_R Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Yep, I'm declaring this one dead in the water. It was fun while it lasted, dreaming of actually being competitive, but we all know that those things just don't happen to us. Ah well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
madras Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 One of them will blink. No need to go all in yet as we retain some surplus value while they we can use the window, also Ashley knows he'll never get a chance to offload us for a profit if he waits too long. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mighty__mag Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I get the feeling it will happen in the summer, unless Ashley is prepared to offer January funds with Pcp paying him back if we stay in the premier, and if not then dont pay him jack. And that will be the evidence he got the valuation completely wrong. Id just say take 250 now and fund Benitez with a further 50m, if the club stay up we give it you back totalling 300m. If not then he cant be serious about selling us. He must know no further investment will see us go down, because Rafa will lose interest fast. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaydnNUFC Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I get the feeling it will happen in the summer, unless Ashley is prepared to offer January funds with Pcp paying him back if we stay in the premier, and if not then dont pay him jack. And that will be the evidence he got the valuation completely wrong. Id just say take 250 now and fund Benitez with a further 50m, if the club stay up we give it you back totalling 300m. If not then he cant be serious about selling us. He must know no further investment will see us go down, because Rafa will lose interest fast. If it'll be done it'll probably be the summer if we're still a Premier League club. Money has to be available next month to ensure that though. Rafa may be able to work with the figure Craig Hope has been told he'll get if Ashley still owns the club next month and will be able to garner more from sales, which will be Mitrovic and hopefully plodders taking up a wage such as Colback. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyn davies Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Giggs? https://twitter.com/CaulkinTheTimes/status/937984866603462656 Bit like Brexit then, Ashley must be using the same strategy . Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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