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Various: Mike Ashley in talks with Sheikh Khaled bin Zayed Al Nehayan

Kaizero

by Kaizero
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Guest ElCid

Guest ElCid

Posted
Posted

Got to say I thought it was done and dusted and to be announced imminently last week and even Rafa was half hinting at this also. It hasn’t and could be 2 things 1. wanting to keep it quiet to ensure that the prices are not high rised due to clubs thinking we have more money or 2. (most likely) there is a big block on a relegation clause.

 

Looking at current form over nearly 3 months and the league table I would be gobsmacked if PCP moved away from the relegation clause as they stand to lose up to 150 million in less than 6 months if relegation does occur. We all know Ashley won’t budge either.

 

Surely looking at the PCP aspect then it is in their best interests to wait until the end of the season and see what division we are in first. I know the transfer window doesn’t open until next 2 weeks so there is time and Rafa will already have his list but I just think it maybe too much of a gamble for PCP to take currently.

 

I said a few weeks ago I could see PCP not buying the club, relegation, no manager, crowds reduce in droves and PCP move on to another club. Last week changed my mind totally but have to admit I have a nagging fear my original thoughts may not be too far off the mark - obviously I hope not.

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Guest Howaythetoon

Guest Howaythetoon

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I'm 100% confident this takeover will happen/is happening. We just have to be patient and not read anything reported (or take it too seriously) because again its all either bull shit or guess work. Ashley wants to sell up and PCP want us. Price has been agreed and I'm sure any clauses or other details have been agreed too. Nothing will be announced until all parties are 100% to go. Don't forget the FA and PL have to ratify this and if there is any land/property included or excluded that can take forever as well.

 

For me the timeline of events is revealing...

 

Legal firms from both sides get involved... contracts drawn, funds placed into an account etc.?

Ashley and Staveley have a meal together... celebrating the closing of a deal etc.?

Transfer targets/rumours linked etc.?

 

Its happening!

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Guest ElCid

Guest ElCid

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I'm 100% confident this takeover will happen/is happening. We just have to be patient and not read anything reported (or take it too seriously) because again its all either bull s*** or guess work. Ashley wants to sell up and PCP want us. Price has been agreed and I'm sure any clauses or other details have been agreed too. Nothing will be announced until all parties are 100% to go. Don't forget the FA and PL have to ratify this and if there is any land/property included or excluded that can take forever as well.

 

For me the timeline of events is revealing...

 

Legal firms from both sides get involved... contracts drawn, funds placed into an account etc.?

Ashley and Staveley have a meal together... celebrating the closing of a deal etc.?

Transfer targets/rumours linked etc.?

 

Its happening!

 

Fingers crossed you’re right!

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Odear

Odear

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It’s happening. Don’t see what the fuss is about. Even if it was announced last week.. we’d still have had a bunch of matches where we’d have lost to take the gloss off it.

 

It’ll be announced on New Year’s Eve.. we'll have deals lined up for the first days in January and the second half of the season will start with a bang.

 

Why would Staveley want the takeover to go through fully when she can’t do anything about results on the pitch??

 

 

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HaydnNUFC

HaydnNUFC

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It’s happening. Don’t see what the fuss is about. Even if it was announced last week.. we’d still have had a bunch of matches where we’d have lost to take the gloss off it.

 

It’ll be announced on New Year’s Eve.. we'll have deals lined up for the first days in January and the second half of the season will start with a bang.

 

Why would Staveley want the takeover to go through fully when she can’t do anything about results on the pitch??

:lol: You're so bipolar. What happened to refusing to believe anything about it at all?
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Guest Howaythetoon

Guest Howaythetoon

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I seriously doubt the hold up or delay is because the buyer is suddenly alarmed about our position in the table. These are serious business people and will have conducted another kind of due diligence regarding the squad and prospects in the league. I mean, just take a look at who our manager is who if rumours are to be believed, has had a huge hand in the takeover. He probably handed them a database of all the permutations of what can happen this season. They will have consulted him and he would have told them straight off that this squad of players will struggle and be in a relegation fight takeover or no takeover. For me, to be at this advanced stage a price will have been agreed and talk of clauses... if the club goes down we get x amount of money back? Sorry, but if I buy a house and a few months later the roof starts leaking do I ask for some money back? I know its not the best analogy to use, but again these are serious people with seemingly serious money.  I think its now all about making sure every aspect is 100% done. Remember we are talking about lots of contracts here where the manager and players are concerned, other assets, trade marks, copyrights, land or land exclusion, advertising partners, catering partners, kit suppliers etc. every single aspect of the club has to go through the transfer of ownership and then you have the FA and Premier League, local council and local media who will need briefed and be involved in to ratify this etc. This is where the hold up is, basically if NUFC was a house, we are waiting for the contracts to exchange and a moving in date...

 

My prediction is that it will be officially announced after the Man City match.

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Odear

Odear

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It’s happening. Don’t see what the fuss is about. Even if it was announced last week.. we’d still have had a bunch of matches where we’d have lost to take the gloss off it.

 

It’ll be announced on New Year’s Eve.. we'll have deals lined up for the first days in January and the second half of the season will start with a bang.

 

Why would Staveley want the takeover to go through fully when she can’t do anything about results on the pitch??

:lol: You're so bipolar. What happened to refusing to believe anything about it at all?

 

The curry house.

 

I wanted to believe it was happening but there was no evidence other than some vague news reports.

 

Now it’s about common sense.. there’s no way she’d want it announced and have to go through a few weeks with her hands tied.

 

She’ll start 2018 as she means to go on.

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oldtype

oldtype

Posted
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HTT has a better conception of how a business acquisition works than most people in this thread.

 

Obviously no guarantee it goes through since deals can die for any reason at any time, but no reason to be all doom and gloom about it either.

 

The lack of news doesn't mean anything, our results on the pitch don't mean anything. People should stop reading tea leaves. You're not even reading the right ones.

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Guest Howaythetoon

Guest Howaythetoon

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HTT has a better conception of how a business acquisition works than most people in this thread.

 

Obviously no guarantee it goes through since deals can die for any reason at any time, but no reason to be all doom and gloom about it either.

 

The lack of news doesn't mean anything, our results on the pitch don't mean anything. People should stop reading tea leaves. You're not even reading the right ones.

 

The fact is that no-one outside of those involved know anything. Nothing substantial anyway. Again I've had a business valued in the past and everything has to be taken into consideration. If players have any lease deals for cars through the club for example those contracts have to be gone over with a fine tooth combe and then ultimately transferred over.

 

I run a small family business and when our business cards expire its a nightmare having to update everything and everyone with our new details, times that 1 million with something like NUFC. Even things like credit/debit card payment machines all have to be transferred over to a new owner.

 

For me its currently in the hands of the banks, legal firms and the governing bodies that make up English football. Once all that is sorted, Ashley will get his money which is no doubt being held in an account ready to be transferred and an official announcement will be made. The media have nothing because there is nothing really so they write about relegation, clauses, transfer funds and other stuff that are not really about the actual takeover, but gets clicks and people talking on social media and on forums.

 

I honestly believe the two parties, Ashley and PCP, are too far into the deal for any party to pull out now. Ashley will have already been given a price which he will have agreed to to get this far and PCP will be in no doubt that this NUFC team are in a relegation fight and will have been a concern as far back as day one. Especially if Rafa is seriously involved because they will have consulted him and he would have told them the state of play basically which is what he has done publicly anyway from day one.

 

If they were to suddenly say now, well we will only pay this much or we will want some of our money back if relegated... Ashley would have told them where to go by now and to be frank, rightly so. Again to use buying a house analogy. You don't agree a price with the owner, set contracts to be exchanged, sign legal forms and then suddenly think because a slate on the roof has fallen off due to high winds, to get them to lower the price. Ashley is the c*** here, the one who pulls stunts and tricks, I highly doubt PCP and their backers are like that!

 

People can change their minds of course but PCP are probably already a few hundred K into this in expenses alone already and Ashley is in a position where he will walk away with a hefty profit in a situation where at the moment its win win. If he stays he loses Rafa, he loses PL status and he loses a sold out SJP and no doubt the relaunch of AshleyOut.com. Basically he's had enough and so have we.

 

We also have to accept that we are talking about highly secretive people here, Ashley has been in the news the last few years of course, but I doubt he wanted the attention. Otherwise he's a very private individual. PCP we don't even know if its Staveley herself or whoever. The journos who all claim to know the ins and out of this takeover surely must know...

 

Even if it doesn't officially happen before Xmas or even if it happens after January, money will be released to Rafa and I guarantee it will be in the form of a loan to Newcastle United the business and not Ashley or via a sponsorship deal. Don't expect a big kitty though... the new owners will want to help Rafa to keep us up, but they wouldn't want to spend silly money only for the club to be relegated. Buy the club now, stay up, then invest heavily, that will be the plan.

 

What I will say, a takeover would give everyone a lift, fans, players and most importantly Rafa. We've been the victim of a new manager bounce in the past so hopefully we can benefit from a new owner bounce which we sadly didn't get with Ashley. I think that alone could be worth a few points...

 

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Guest Howaythetoon

Guest Howaythetoon

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The very public meeting in a London curry house was very bizarre if the deal isn't going ahead.

It'll be happening.

 

It was bizzare full stop. My own personal take on that now is they were taking the piss out of the media, the fact the owner of the Express was there is maybe like two fingers up to the rest of the media. Ashley doesn't like the press, we know that as much. Staged? Aye, but as a lets all laugh at the media while we eat over making some money ha ha ha.

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Guest Howaythetoon

Guest Howaythetoon

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I'm gonna try and talk around certain issues peddled in the media as to being an issue or part of the delay or hold up ... so here goes!

 

SD advertising - this will have been something that will have came up in the very earliest round of talks and would be a factor of valuation for Ashley in that he can say this is how much SD would have to pay for such advertising and therefore this is what you can earn. If Ashley wants SD adverts displayed around SJP for a period of time, this will have actually devalued the club because the new owner would obviously see this as potential lost income/lost revenue.

 

Ashley conversely could say he would accept a lower price in return for continued advertising for SD.  PCP will know the true value of the SD advertising to SD and this will have all been factored into the purchase price of the club. For me, either way I don't see it as an issue. If Ashley wants to keep SD adverts for a certain time frame, he will pay for it by way of a reduced price for the club. If he doesn't, its leverage to get more money out of PCP. My guess and this is almost all guess work - a compromise.

 

Other interested parties & deferred payments - I seriously doubt someone who helped broker the Man City buy out and with those kind of connections would be swayed by an option to basically purchase the club on finance. That line of buying method was Ashley's way of basically trying to flush out as many would be buyers as he could. He doesn't care who owns the club, he's just after top dollar. Unfortunately for him there is only one serious buyer and they are cash buyers willing to pay what the club is worth based on due diligence, nothing more, nothing less.

 

Ashley would rather sell to someone who would give him 400m over 5 years than someone 300m in one go. Such an entity or persons don't exists, however, and if they did, they obviously couldn't afford such a business long term and would be saddled with debt. Hardly a recipe for taking over a PL club.  Basically anyone interested on them terms would have walked away well before now. Simple economics. So its Ashley and PCP. There is no other interested party, those that might have been, didn't even look at the brochure as KK once coined.

 

Relegation clauses - We do find ourselves in a relegation fight, but for me, Ashley has been looking to sell the club as far back as last January hence the appointment of Barnes and had hoped someone would come in pre Premier League kick-off so he didn't have to sanction a summer transfer spend which he eventually did, albeit on a paupers budget. He wants out, its been obvious for a while now.

 

No buyers though. Not until Rafa used his own connections to sound out certain people that is, which is when this takeover really kicked in. Its thanks to him we are even talking about this. Through his connections, his reputation and standing in world football. This is where it gets juicy. Pre PL kick-off, we were worth more than we are now.

 

That's not because we are in the bottom three, its because we were a blank canvas then. Now we are a club who could go down, who needs some significant funding in January. That said, PCP will have known from day one what they were interested in, a newly promoted club which due to lack of funding, would be in a relegation fight and may go down, Rafa or no Rafa, takeover or no takeover. I refuse to believe the hold up or delay is because we are now in the bottom three.

 

Rafa will have told them from the off that if they were to buy the club, they would be buying a newly promoted team fighting to stay in the PL. The premium of buying us over say any other newly promoted club is that they are buying one of Europe's biggest club's, with a world-class manager, a sold out stadium regarded as one of the best in the league with untapped potential.

 

They would have factored that into everything. In short, although relegation would be an issue, all it would do it set back whatever plans they have for us, a year at most. If we go down, their investment doesn't suddenly devalue. You have to accept that they are not about making a profit, this is about a project. We go down, sure we lose PL money, but for how long, another year? Parachute payments alone plus injected cash could see us go back up at the first time of asking again. So for me, this is a none issue.

 

January transfer money - Its been rumoured that the the deal all hinges on the January transfer window, that PCP if they cannot buy the club now, want Ashley to spend some money which they will then repay once bought or if we stay up. Something he may be reluctant to do or may not be enough to help us stay up. Sorry, but that's just bollocks.

 

They can buy the club in principle and do a whole manner of things. They could loan the club even as Ashley as owner money at zero interest or even sponsor the club in some way. Again these are serious business people with serious money. They are not going to fanny around because of this. If they seriously want us, and a price is agreed which it has to be to get to this stage, they will have factored in all eventualities and the main thing will be releasing enough money to give Rafa the best chance of keeping the club up.

 

Our position in the table doesn't devalue us or give PCP an advantage or Ashley even. All it does ironically is speed up the process. The quicker this gets done the quicker funds can be released to make sure we do stay up. If that's not possible and Ashley has to release funds, it doesn't have to be out of his own pocket or even the club's. In short this is a bull shit issue. I as a business owner can lend my own business whatever at whatever rates I like, likewise I can borrow form my business on the same terms. I've done both over the years. I part purchased my home through my business for example.

 

Getting back to business... we are talking about a 300m pound plus deal, this isn't like buying a car or a house even despite my analogies. This is a huge business that is also governed by certain bodies. That said, the PL and FA do not have any legal jurisdiction over who owns what is first and foremost, a business. A business listed and governed by HMRC, companies house and all business law in this country. As far as the PL and FA are concerned, PCP own NUFC as a business (if the takeover is done). They just won't technically own an English Football League Club operating in the Premier League. Not until they do their so called due diligence and that is where I personally feel we are at....

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