Relegationometer

[Dave]

Posted this in another thread.

 

Teams below us:

Norwich (still to play Stoke and Villa)

Sunderland (still to play Stoke and Villa)

Stoke (still to play Norwich and Sunderland)

Villa (still to play Norwich, Sunderland and Wigan)

Wigan (still to play Villa)

 

The points dropped there will save us, even if we don't win another game. They can't all win.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Exactly.

[Ketsbaia]

I did the BBC predictor and had us stay up, despite only getting 1 more point! We're lucky there's so many games between those around us - they cant both win!

 

Stoke vs Norwich

Aston Villa vs Sunderland

Norwich vs Aston Villa

Sunderland vs Stoke

Sunderland vs Southampton

Southampton vs Stoke

Wigan vs Aston Villa

 

This as well.

[Varadi]

Villa and Wigan have the toughest run-ins but also the best form. Stoke have winnable games but are in a mess - their game at QPR this weekend is crucial, if they lose that I can't see them winning another game.

 

Even being quite pessimistic on other teams' results I have 38 points as enough to stay up, so we just need to grab a couple of draws....

[Mick]

I did the BBC predictor and had us stay up, despite only getting 1 more point! We're lucky there's so many games between those around us - they cant both win!

 

Stoke vs Norwich

Aston Villa vs Sunderland

Norwich vs Aston Villa

Sunderland vs Stoke

Sunderland vs Southampton

Southampton vs Stoke

Wigan vs Aston Villa

 

This as well.

 

I know it's unlikely but award all home wins and we're 2 points above Wigan if we don't pick up any more points, I still think we will need points before we can stop looking over our shoulders.

[afar]

Villa and Wigan have the toughest run-ins but also the best form. Stoke have winnable games but are in a mess - their game at QPR this weekend is crucial, if they lose that I can't see them winning another game.

 

Even being quite pessimistic on other teams' results I have 38 points as enough to stay up, so we just need to grab a couple of draws....

 

The problem is, it's difficult to find where those two draws will come from. Our last two home games are against teams who have been in as good form as anyone over recent weeks and are both regarded as "big teams". Away from home we are pushovers, our away form is pathetic and embarrassing. The games against WBA, West ham and QPR are all fixtures our squad of players should be targeting something from, but with our clueless manager and the way we play away from home, those games look like write offs.

 

All the other teams at the bottom have games they look likely to win and most of the teams directly below us seem to be showing signs of a fight Sunderland, Wigan and Villa. While Stoke and Norwich both have much easier home games than we do and you would expect them to push past 36 points.

 

I honestly can see us not gaining another point all season and we'll be down with that kind of form.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Villa and Wigan have the toughest run-ins but also the best form. Stoke have winnable games but are in a mess - their game at QPR this weekend is crucial, if they lose that I can't see them winning another game.

 

Even being quite pessimistic on other teams' results I have 38 points as enough to stay up, so we just need to grab a couple of draws....

 

I can see QPR beating Stoke at the moment.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

 

All the other teams at the bottom have games they look likely to win and most of the teams directly below us seem to be showing signs of a fight Sunderland, Wigan and Villa. While Stoke and Norwich both have much easier home games than we do and you would expect them to push past 36 points.

 

 

Would you expect all of those things to happen together though?

 

And would you have said before Sunderland that it was the only game we had a chance of getting points in?

[Teasy]

Villa and Wigan have the toughest run-ins but also the best form. Stoke have winnable games but are in a mess - their game at QPR this weekend is crucial, if they lose that I can't see them winning another game.

 

Even being quite pessimistic on other teams' results I have 38 points as enough to stay up, so we just need to grab a couple of draws....

 

The problem is, it's difficult to find where those two draws will come from. Our last two home games are against teams who have been in as good form as anyone over recent weeks and are both regarded as "big teams". Away from home we are pushovers, our away form is pathetic and embarrassing. The games against WBA, West ham and QPR are all fixtures our squad of players should be targeting something from, but with our clueless manager and the way we play away from home, those games look like write offs.

 

All the other teams at the bottom have games they look likely to win and most of the teams directly below us seem to be showing signs of a fight Sunderland, Wigan and Villa. While Stoke and Norwich both have much easier home games than we do and you would expect them to push past 36 points.

 

I honestly can see us not gaining another point all season and we'll be down with that kind of form.

 

If our form is so terrible you can't see us gaining another point then I don't think its reasonable to think all the teams around us are likely to pick them up either.  Stoke have 1 point from their last 6 games home and away, that's 4 times worse then our away form! (6 times worse than our form home and away).

 

Stokes home form is only marginally better than our away form, 5 points from Stokes last 6 home games while we have 4 points from our last 6 away.  So based on form our away games (WBA, West ham and QPR) are no more right offs than Stokes 2 remaining home games (Norwich and Tottenham).

[TRon]

In a way that's an example of why we probably won't go down. Teams like Wigan play nice football but when it counts they still usually get beat.

 

That's because they don't have very good quality players, especially to play a passing game. I'm amazed they've stayed in the division this long.

[themanupstairs]

Carlos Tevez and the FA Cup Final being on the 11th may just have seen us safe barring any freak results.

[ujpest doza]

Posted this in another thread.

 

Teams below us:

Norwich (still to play Stoke and Villa)

Sunderland (still to play Stoke and Villa)

Stoke (still to play Norwich and Sunderland)

Villa (still to play Norwich, Sunderland and Wigan)

Wigan (still to play Villa)

 

The points dropped there will save us, even if we don't win another game. They can't all win.

Exactly, they'll all cut each others throats and one of Villa or Stoke will go down.

[ujpest doza]

Villa and Wigan have the toughest run-ins but also the best form. Stoke have winnable games but are in a mess - their game at QPR this weekend is crucial, if they lose that I can't see them winning another game.

 

Even being quite pessimistic on other teams' results I have 38 points as enough to stay up, so we just need to grab a couple of draws....

 

The problem is, it's difficult to find where those two draws will come from. Our last two home games are against teams who have been in as good form as anyone over recent weeks and are both regarded as "big teams". Away from home we are pushovers, our away form is pathetic and embarrassing. The games against WBA, West ham and QPR are all fixtures our squad of players should be targeting something from, but with our clueless manager and the way we play away from home, those games look like write offs.

 

All the other teams at the bottom have games they look likely to win and most of the teams directly below us seem to be showing signs of a fight Sunderland, Wigan and Villa. While Stoke and Norwich both have much easier home games than we do and you would expect them to push past 36 points.

 

I honestly can see us not gaining another point all season and we'll be down with that kind of form.

Reading are a crock of shit yet managed to draw 0-0 with Liverpool last week.

[Scoreboard82]

From the highlights it looks like Wigan dominated yesterday

A lot of well built chances and pretty unlucky to come out with nothing. Big difference with our performance over there.

I reckon they are gonna easily beat Swansea, who are already on holiday.

We could say the same about us v West Brom. Are they already on holiday? Will QPR be on holiday by the time we go there? I'm pretty sure they'll be down by then. West Ham will probably be safe by the time we go there.

While we're understandably worried, i think a lot of opinion is based on how people feel after the derby debacle. We shouldn't be any more pessimistic than the likes of Stoke. Having said that, i'll still be mightily relieved to survive.

[Beren]

My BBC predictor table

 

http://i.imgur.com/K0Q4aXm.jpg

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Christ, I hope it's not as close as that.

[Ronaldo]

Don't know where Wigan are getting 7 points from, fortunately. I do think we'll both win and draw in the remaining 5 games.

[NG32]

I have us just surviving on 38

 

Sunderland 41

Wigan 40

NUFC 38

Villa    37

---------------------

Stoke  35

QPR    29

Reading fucked

 

 

 

[afar]

 

All the other teams at the bottom have games they look likely to win and most of the teams directly below us seem to be showing signs of a fight Sunderland, Wigan and Villa. While Stoke and Norwich both have much easier home games than we do and you would expect them to push past 36 points.

 

 

Would you expect all of those things to happen together though?

 

And would you have said before Sunderland that it was the only game we had a chance of getting points in?

 

I expect Norwich to beat Reading at home taking them 38 pts. I expect Stoke to beat Norwich at home (or QPR away), to take them to 37 pts. I expect Aston Villa to beat Sunderland at home taking them to 37pts. I expect Sunderland to beat Stoke at home taking them to 37 pts. I expect Wigan to beat Swansea (on their hols) and Aston Villa at home taking them to 37 pts. All those teams may pick up additional points too of course.  While we need to improve a lot on the Sunderland game at home and do something about our away form to even get one more point this season.

 

I said before the Fulham game that, that and and Sunderland ones were the only games I could see us winning between now and the end of the season. We are not drawing games, when we go away from home we lose, the two home games we have left look extremely tough on paper and both teams are better than the shower of shite that thumped us on Sunday. QPR away is our best chance of getting anything, West Brom don't have a lot to play for but I'm sure they will be less nervous and are in better form than s right now. West Ham are still not clear and Alardyce, Carroll and Nolan will need to motivation to want to beat us.

[Belfast Boy]

 

All the other teams at the bottom have games they look likely to win and most of the teams directly below us seem to be showing signs of a fight Sunderland, Wigan and Villa. While Stoke and Norwich both have much easier home games than we do and you would expect them to push past 36 points.

 

 

Would you expect all of those things to happen together though?

 

And would you have said before Sunderland that it was the only game we had a chance of getting points in?

 

I expect Norwich to beat Reading at home taking them 38 pts. I expect Stoke to beat Norwich at home (or QPR away), to take them to 37 pts. I expect Aston Villa to beat Sunderland at home taking them to 37pts. I expect Sunderland to beat Stoke at home taking them to 37 pts. I expect Wigan to beat Swansea (on their hols) and Aston Villa at home taking them to 37 pts. All those teams may pick up additional points too of course.  While we need to improve a lot on the Sunderland game at home and do something about our away form to even get one more point this season.

 

I said before the Fulham game that, that and and Sunderland ones were the only games I could see us winning between now and the end of the season. We are not drawing games, when we go away from home we lose, the two home games we have left look extremely tough on paper and both teams are better than the shower of shite that thumped us on Sunday. QPR away is our best chance of getting anything, West Brom don't have a lot to play for but I'm sure they will be less nervous and are in better form than s right now. West Ham are still not clear and Alardyce, Carroll and Nolan will need to motivation to want to beat us.

 

I think we will get just enough to stay up but I have to say I agree with this. Whilst the teams down at the bottom are playing each other means they can't both win, it does mean that at least one of them will pick up points in each of those games.

[Teasy]

 

All the other teams at the bottom have games they look likely to win and most of the teams directly below us seem to be showing signs of a fight Sunderland, Wigan and Villa. While Stoke and Norwich both have much easier home games than we do and you would expect them to push past 36 points.

 

 

Would you expect all of those things to happen together though?

 

And would you have said before Sunderland that it was the only game we had a chance of getting points in?

 

I expect Norwich to beat Reading at home taking them 38 pts. I expect Stoke to beat Norwich at home (or QPR away), to take them to 37 pts. I expect Aston Villa to beat Sunderland at home taking them to 37pts. I expect Sunderland to beat Stoke at home taking them to 37 pts. I expect Wigan to beat Swansea (on their hols) and Aston Villa at home taking them to 37 pts. All those teams may pick up additional points too of course.  While we need to improve a lot on the Sunderland game at home and do something about our away form to even get one more point this season.

 

I said before the Fulham game that, that and and Sunderland ones were the only games I could see us winning between now and the end of the season. We are not drawing games, when we go away from home we lose, the two home games we have left look extremely tough on paper and both teams are better than the shower of shite that thumped us on Sunday. QPR away is our best chance of getting anything, West Brom don't have a lot to play for but I'm sure they will be less nervous and are in better form than s right now. West Ham are still not clear and Alardyce, Carroll and Nolan will need to motivation to want to beat us.

 

Stoke and Norwich have much worse form than us, why do you expect them both to win games but also expect us not to even get another point?

 

By the way our form and West Broms is basically the same at the moment.

[afar]

 

All the other teams at the bottom have games they look likely to win and most of the teams directly below us seem to be showing signs of a fight Sunderland, Wigan and Villa. While Stoke and Norwich both have much easier home games than we do and you would expect them to push past 36 points.

 

 

Would you expect all of those things to happen together though?

 

And would you have said before Sunderland that it was the only game we had a chance of getting points in?

 

I expect Norwich to beat Reading at home taking them 38 pts. I expect Stoke to beat Norwich at home (or QPR away), to take them to 37 pts. I expect Aston Villa to beat Sunderland at home taking them to 37pts. I expect Sunderland to beat Stoke at home taking them to 37 pts. I expect Wigan to beat Swansea (on their hols) and Aston Villa at home taking them to 37 pts. All those teams may pick up additional points too of course.  While we need to improve a lot on the Sunderland game at home and do something about our away form to even get one more point this season.

 

I said before the Fulham game that, that and and Sunderland ones were the only games I could see us winning between now and the end of the season. We are not drawing games, when we go away from home we lose, the two home games we have left look extremely tough on paper and both teams are better than the shower of s**** that thumped us on Sunday. QPR away is our best chance of getting anything, West Brom don't have a lot to play for but I'm sure they will be less nervous and are in better form than s right now. West Ham are still not clear and Alardyce, Carroll and Nolan will need to motivation to want to beat us.

 

Stoke and Norwich have much worse form than us, but you expect them to win games while you think we won't even get another point, why?

 

Look who Stoke are playing and where they are playing them, Norwich at home !  Norwich are playing Reading at home.  Those two games could be crucial to our season, I don't see Reading taking any points off anyone they are fucking awful and it's a disgrace that they took 4 pts from us this season.

[afar]

I know I'm a pessimistic bastard so to balance things out, if we beat West Brom on Sunday, we'll be safe IMO, it's just one win we need and maybe a draw or two. The confidence a victory away from home will give us should be enough to see us through the rest of the season.

[NG32]

I know I'm a pessimistic b****** so to balance things out, if we beat West Brom on Sunday, we'll be safe IMO, it's just one win we need and maybe a draw or two. The confidence a victory away from home will give us should be enough to see us through the rest of the season.

 

A 1-1 at HOME to Sunderland would have gone a LONG way to make us safe.

[afar]

I know I'm a pessimistic b****** so to balance things out, if we beat West Brom on Sunday, we'll be safe IMO, it's just one win we need and maybe a draw or two. The confidence a victory away from home will give us should be enough to see us through the rest of the season.

 

A 1-1 at HOME to Sunderland would have gone a LONG way to make us safe.

 

Yep and put them in serious shit. Now we've just gone and given them 3 pts and a huge boost to their confidence.