Relegationometer

[1964]

We still have HMRC on the horizon, just saying

[Nobody]

Rafa don't do losing streaks

[xLiaaamx]

We still have HMRC on the horizon, just saying

 

I doubt anything's going to come of that since a judge reckoned their raid might be illegal.

[Dinho lad]

31 more pts and we're safe. 

 

Fuck off, man, I'm thinking about the Champions' League.

[Optimistic Nut]

8 points clear if we win tomorrow. That's probably the equivalent of allowing for 5-6 or so games losing in a row and still being outside the relegation zone already.

[U2]

8 points clear if we win tomorrow. That's probably the equivalent of allowing for 5-6 or so games losing in a row and still being outside the relegation zone already.

 

Think it's probably equivalent to losing 8 or 9 in a row.  Relegation teams aren't picking up 3 wins in 5.

[Optimistic Nut]

True. Get as much on the board as possible because December on paper is a 5-6 game losing streak.

[joeyt]

True. Get as much on the board as possible because December on paper is a 5-6 game losing streak.

 

We can beat Leicester and Everton at home, man. Even West Ham away is very winnable

[HaydnNUFC]

True. Get as much on the board as possible because December on paper is a 5-6 game losing streak.

 

We can beat Leicester and Everton at home, man. Even West Ham away is very winnable

Brighton at home n'al.

[Heron]

We need to get to 40 ASAP then we can kick on.

 

Another good result tomorrow (even a draw would do) and we're 6 points clear of the drop and a quarter of the way there...

[Optimistic Nut]

I always find it funny when managers say that because for the majority of teams even surviving comfortably, it's well into February or March by the time you get to that point. Then the players stop giving a fuck and tend to go on a shit run

[xLiaaamx]

We wont do 5-6 losing streaks under Rafa. We'll at least scrape some 0-0's in that space.

[Heron]

I don't think you'd ever see any of that attitude from a Benitez side like.

 

Could theoretically be like a third of our way to safety with a win tomorrow and 8 points clear

 

Obviously we're gonna lose 2-1 like

[Altamullan]

Did this re relative difficulty thing for the season. Surprisingly, we're on track.

Thought I would 'classify' and colour code our fixtures according to finishing position last year of opposition  treating the top seven (15 point gap between Everton 7th and Southampton 8th) as RED (least likely to beat), next six as AMBER, and remaining four, plus promoted sides as GREEN. To make this pseudo-scientific cluster-f*** even more elaborate, opposition moves up or down a category depending if home or away if we are playing a RED team at SJP it becomes an AMBER fixture; and a GREEN team away becomes an AMBER fixture (I know this ignores our relatively better away form, last year).

 

Point is (other than I am bored and NUFC obsessed...) this should give, based on last year's form/squads, a sense of the relative difficulty of different periods of the season. So:

August:

Spurs H PRED 1 Lost ACT 0

Huddersfield A PRED 2 Lost ACT 0

West Ham H PRED 5 Won ACT 3

September:

Swansea A PRED 6 Won ACT 6

Stoke H PRED 9 Won ACT 9

Brighton A PRED 10  Lost ACT 9

Liverpool H PRED 11 Drew ACT 10

October:

Southampton A PRED 11 Drew ACT 11

Palace H  PRED 14 Won ACT 14

Burnley A PRED 15

November:

Bournemouth H PRED 18

Man Utd A PRED 18

Watford H PRED 21

WBA A PRED 22

December:

Chelsea A PRED 22

Leicester H PRED 25

Everton H PRED 26

Arsenal A PRED 26

West Ham A PRED 26

Man City H PRED 27

Brighton H PRED 30

January:

Stoke A PRED 30

Swansea H PRED 33

Man City A PRED 33

Burnley H PRED 36

February:

Palace A PRED 37

Man Utd H PRED 38

Bournemouth A PRED 39

March:

Liverpool A PRED 39

Southampton H PRED 42

Spurs A PRED 42

Huddersfield H PRED 45

April:

Leicester A PRED 45

Arsenal H PRED 46

Everton A PRED 46

WBA H PRED 49

May:

Watford A PRED 50

Chelsea H PRED 51

[xLiaaamx]

Your total suggests we should never be beat at home though. 

[Tsunami]

Predicting we'd go all season unbeaten at home was never going to end well.

[Altamullan]

Your total suggests we should never be beat at home though. 

Yeah, sadly for my early retirement plans I haven't stumbled upon some infallible secret predictive formula. Point is, if there is indeed any point at all, that this may give a sense of relative difficulty and the total points may average out. Lose some 'greens' win some 'reds' lose or win some ambers but overall if we're on for a low top ten finish, we should accumulate somewhere near those totals for the different months. Ish, kinda, etc.

[loki679]

So a win today and we're ahead no matter what happens against Liverpool.  You should graph it up to track predicted vs actual.

[STM]

Getting this in early, NO overreations please. We've had a decent enough start to the season.

[xLiaaamx]

We'll still be 6th after 6th games. No panic. You never win "every" game you expect to. Losing an away game isn't catastrophic.

[Darth Crooks]

Be interesting to see where we go from here in terms of goals.

Mitro?

[afar]

Getting this in early, NO overreations please. We've had a decent enough start to the season.

 

We have, to be where we are after 6 games is great, need to not get beat in the next two though, or the good start will feel a long way off.

[Ketsbaia]

We had a generous start fixture-wise, so 9pts is only par. This game and the Huddersfield defeat show how little we offer going forward.

[54]

We had a generous start fixture-wise, so 9pts is only par. This game and the Huddersfield defeat show how little we offer going forward.

I don't think its a coincidence that we've lost to the two teams we'd have expected to get something from, we seem to be better when we're the underdog, was the same last season.

[Optimistic Nut]

Getting this in early, NO overreations please. We've had a decent enough start to the season.

 

We have, to be where we are after 6 games is great, need to not get beat in the next two though, or the good start will feel a long way off.

 

9 points is the minimum we should have had from those fixtures tbh. Slightly disappointed we don't have another point or two tbh.