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Relegationometer

Yorkie

by Yorkie
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Relegationometer  

332 members have voted

  1. 1. We going down then or what? 10 - aye, doomed, no hope of salvation / 5 - can't call it / 0 - nah we're sound, can't wait for next season

    • 0
      20
    • 1
      19
    • 2
      16
    • 3
      18
    • 4
      20
    • 5
      27
    • 6
      22
    • 7
      17
    • 8
      37
    • 9
      25
    • 10
      35

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54

54

Posted
Posted

Does that basically mean most likely our survival will be confirmed next weekend then when city win?

It'll be confirmed if Stoke fail to win against West Ham on Monday and Southampton lose to Leicester on Thursday.

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Altamullan

Altamullan

Posted
Posted

We were catching-up with the predicted points total, but plateaued. Gained 86% of predicted points (End of season update). Not usually in the predicted games! but first and last third were reasonably accurate, just November and December results let us down. 10th! GTFI.

 

Did this re relative difficulty thing for the season. Surprisingly, we're on track.

Thought I would 'classify' and colour code our fixtures according to finishing position last year of opposition  treating the top seven (15 point gap between Everton 7th and Southampton 8th) as RED (least likely to beat), next six as AMBER, and remaining four, plus promoted sides as GREEN. To make this pseudo-scientific cluster-f*** even more elaborate, opposition moves up or down a category depending if home or away if we are playing a RED team at SJP it becomes an AMBER fixture; and a GREEN team away becomes an AMBER fixture (I know this ignores our relatively better away form, last year).

 

Point is (other than I am bored and NUFC obsessed...) this should give, based on last year's form/squads, a sense of the relative difficulty of different periods of the season. So:

August:

Spurs H PRED 1 Lost ACT 0

Huddersfield A PRED 2 Lost ACT 0

West Ham H PRED 5 Won ACT 3

September:

Swansea A PRED 6 Won ACT 6

Stoke H PRED 9 Won ACT 9

Brighton A PRED 10  Lost ACT 9

Liverpool H PRED 11 Drew ACT 10

October:

Southampton A PRED 11 Drew ACT 11

Palace H  PRED 14 Won ACT 14

Burnley A PRED 15 Lost ACT 14

November:

Bournemouth H PRED 18 Lost ACT 14

Man Utd A PRED 18 Lost ACT 14 

Watford H PRED 21 Lost ACT 14

WBA A PRED 22 Drew ACT 15 

December:

Chelsea A PRED 22 Lost ACT 15

Leicester H PRED 25 Lost ACT 15

Everton H PRED 26 Lost ACT 15

Arsenal A PRED 26 Lost ACT 15

West Ham A PRED 26 Won ACT 18

Man City H PRED 27 Lost ACT 18

Brighton H  PRED 30 Drew ACT 19

January:

Stoke A PRED 30 Won ACT 22

Swansea H PRED 33 Drew ACT 23

Man City A PRED 33 Lost ACT 23

Burnley H PRED 36 Drew ACT 24

February:

Palace A PRED 37 Drew ACT 25

Man Utd H PRED 38 Won ACT 28

Bournemouth A PRED 39 Drew ACT 29

March:

Liverpool A PRED 39 Lost ACT 29

Southampton H PRED 42 Won ACT 32

Huddersfield H PRED 45 Won ACT 35

April:

Leicester A PRED 45 Won ACT 38

Arsenal H PRED 46 Won ACT 41

Everton A PRED 46  Lost ACT 41

WBA H PRED 49 Lost ACT 41

May:

Watford A PRED 50 Lost ACT 41

Spurs A PRED 50  Lost ACT 41

Chelsea H PRED 51 Won ACT 44

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

We were two points off safety if we go back to kick-off 7 games ago against the team second in the league. Incredible form.

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loki679

loki679

Posted
Posted

We are catching-up with the predicted total points, and we’ve already more than enough to secure Premier League football next season. If we stay behind the predictions, by the same margin (achieve 89%), then we’re looking at a 45 point haul, rather than 51 points. Phenomenal run of form since Nov/Dec carnage (15 April, update).

 

Did this re relative difficulty thing for the season. Surprisingly, we're on track.

Thought I would 'classify' and colour code our fixtures according to finishing position last year of opposition  treating the top seven (15 point gap between Everton 7th and Southampton 8th) as RED (least likely to beat), next six as AMBER, and remaining four, plus promoted sides as GREEN. To make this pseudo-scientific cluster-f*** even more elaborate, opposition moves up or down a category depending if home or away if we are playing a RED team at SJP it becomes an AMBER fixture; and a GREEN team away becomes an AMBER fixture (I know this ignores our relatively better away form, last year).

 

Point is (other than I am bored and NUFC obsessed...) this should give, based on last year's form/squads, a sense of the relative difficulty of different periods of the season. So:

August:

Spurs H PRED 1 Lost ACT 0

Huddersfield A PRED 2 Lost ACT 0

West Ham H PRED 5 Won ACT 3

September:

Swansea A PRED 6 Won ACT 6

Stoke H PRED 9 Won ACT 9

Brighton A PRED 10  Lost ACT 9

Liverpool H PRED 11 Drew ACT 10

October:

Southampton A PRED 11 Drew ACT 11

Palace H  PRED 14 Won ACT 14

Burnley A PRED 15 Lost ACT 14

November:

Bournemouth H PRED 18 Lost ACT 14

Man Utd A PRED 18 Lost ACT 14 

Watford H PRED 21 Lost ACT 14

WBA A PRED 22 Drew ACT 15 

December:

Chelsea A PRED 22 Lost ACT 15

Leicester H PRED 25 Lost ACT 15

Everton H PRED 26 Lost ACT 15

Arsenal A PRED 26 Lost ACT 15

West Ham A PRED 26 Won ACT 18

Man City H PRED 27 Lost ACT 18

Brighton H  PRED 30 Drew ACT 19

January:

Stoke A PRED 30 Won ACT 22

Swansea H PRED 33 Drew ACT 23

Man City A PRED 33 Lost ACT 23

Burnley H PRED 36 Drew ACT 24

February:

Palace A PRED 37 Drew ACT 25

Man Utd H PRED 38 Won ACT 28

Bournemouth A PRED 39 Drew ACT 29

March:

Liverpool A PRED 39 Lost ACT 29

Southampton H PRED 42 Won ACT 32

Spurs A PRED 42 tbc

Huddersfield H PRED 45 Won ACT 35

April:

Leicester A PRED 45 Won ACT 38

Arsenal H PRED 46 Won ACT 41

Everton A PRED 46

WBA H PRED 49

May:

Watford A PRED 50

Chelsea H PRED 51

 

Should be in graph form, man.  Rookie mistake.

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Guest firetotheworks

Guest firetotheworks

Posted
Posted

Always worth posting the updates on this. At this stage of the season, this is the third best season we've had under Ashley.

 

https://twitter.com/bigchrisholt/status/985524075375276035

 

Just to reiterate how well Rafa has done. With 5 games to go we're now on the same points tally as the 12/13 team ended on. For me the best post-SBR squad that we've had in terms of quality, talent, and potential. Ben Arfa, Ba, Cisse, Cabaye, Tiote, Sissoko, Marveaux, Debuchy, Yanga-Mbiwa, Coloccini, Krul.

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Guest Howaythetoon

Guest Howaythetoon

Posted
Posted

Watched some of the FA Cup Semi yesterday and the way the commentators were going on you'd think Southampton had a right go. They were awful. I wouldn't mind Austin here, he had a few chances. Him and Bertrand.

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