Relegationometer

[Guest icemanblue]

Anyone that didn't think we were in trouble at the turn of the year were in cloud cuckoo land...we had a team nowhere near full strength due to injuries, a manager who alone was costing us points with cowardly tactics and moronic substitutions and what seemed to be a player, Ba, dictating how and where he should play, to the detriment of the team. I'm not wearing this bollocks that Stu is bumping his gums about that we were always certainties to avoid relegation.

 

Stu always takes a contrary view to sense, just to contrive conflict.

 

Anyhow, like all here, I'm delighted with the investments and the way they've started life at SJP, I voted 2 whereas at the start of the year I'd have voted a 7/8.

 

That's nonsense, like. I wasn't, at any point, seriously worried about relegation. As I maintained all along, things were always going to get easier/better when our better players returned. We were also always going to strengthen. Admittedly, I didn't think we'd strenghten quite as well as we have. The mood at matches and amongst my family and friends didn't come close to mirroring the mood on here, so perhaps that helped.

 

I genuinely think that, unless you're cut adrift at the bottom, noone can be certain (a 9 or a 10) that a team is going down at that stage. The season doesn't end in January, as we've seen so many times before.

 

I said 7 or 8 at the turn of the year, and stated why. Without the investment that we couldn't have been sure we were getting due to the owner's iffy record of spending, we would have been much worse off than we are now points wise. Stu, like yourself,a hindsight prophet, stated he was a 1 pre-investment. Absolute lunacy.

 

Eh? Are you being serious, or what? I said all of this at the time. Investment, players returning, the lot. There's no hindsight involved.

 

It's also not lunacy. The fact we're in the positon we are now is a pretty fucking good testament to that.

 

So it was madness for people rightly worried about relegation to vote 9 at Christmas,but not for contrary WUMs to vote 1?

 

You for real ?

 

Eh (again)? I've said why I think it's madness for someone to say 'we're definitely down', five months before the end of the season, when we weren't even in the relegation zone. It wouldn't have been so mad if we'd been in QPR's position, but even they had a chance of getting out of it.

 

What all the 'contrary WUM' shit is, other than childish, I don't know. Did I gain this title just by having a different opinion to the majority?

 

And yet isn't madness to say we definitely wouldn't ? Even in the current positivity, it would be so. Why can't you see that ?

 

Because it's not 'madness', man! I don't think anyone could be 'certain' that we'd have definitely stayed up or went down, there are just too many variables (and Joe Kinnear is still alive). It was a controversial opinion, grounded in experience of what's went before and a lack of melodrama. Things were always going to pick up, we had two of our best players to come back and we had new players to come in. We had far worse teams below us without these plus points to look forward to. It was a rough time, and a terrible run of form. At no point were we in the relegation zone, though.

 

So to vote 1 or 10 ,definitely up or down is a tad bonkers then......you are actually agreeing with me ffs.

 

Am I fuck.

 

Honestly, this is just pointless. You're just going to keep shifting it. I'm entitled to my opinion, which I'm not using to be a WUM. I don't claim that it's the definitive opinion on the subject.

 

TBF to Inochi he's been propagating this opinion for a while RE: relegation/Pards stuff to a response of a fair bit of flak. It's hardly reactionist drivel after the event has happened.

 

I know Inochi has been consistent with his opinion,and hasn't shied away ,unlike others who now share a similar opinion, during the lower times. The point really is about the scale of the poll.

 

It's not about the scale of the poll at all. I've never argued the scale. It's about negative, defeatist, melodramatic predictions.

 

Claptrap. It wasn't any of those things when Pardew somehow manufactured defeat from the jaws of victory against Reading. It was reality. And thankfully Ashley did something about it. That's all there is to it.

 

Ah, man. You can't tell me I'm wrong when things are working out nearly exactly as I thought they would. I've given my reasons why I think it is, so many times. Supporting my argument, you know? I'm also pretty confident that my words are expressing my opinion too as, well, they're my words from my head.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I can't follow this, give it to me as a percentage.

[Tiresias]

After the Reading game i looked at the table and genuinely struggled to think where we'd get points from. Of course we were in danger of going down, still are till we get another 6 points at least.

[mrmojorisin75]

Anyone that didn't think we were in trouble at the turn of the year were in cloud cuckoo land...we had a team nowhere near full strength due to injuries, a manager who alone was costing us points with cowardly tactics and moronic substitutions and what seemed to be a player, Ba, dictating how and where he should play, to the detriment of the team. I'm not wearing this bollocks that Stu is bumping his gums about that we were always certainties to avoid relegation.

 

Stu always takes a contrary view to sense, just to contrive conflict.

 

Anyhow, like all here, I'm delighted with the investments and the way they've started life at SJP, I voted 2 whereas at the start of the year I'd have voted a 7/8.

 

That's nonsense, like. I wasn't, at any point, seriously worried about relegation. As I maintained all along, things were always going to get easier/better when our better players returned. We were also always going to strengthen. Admittedly, I didn't think we'd strenghten quite as well as we have. The mood at matches and amongst my family and friends didn't come close to mirroring the mood on here, so perhaps that helped.

 

I genuinely think that, unless you're cut adrift at the bottom, noone can be certain (a 9 or a 10) that a team is going down at that stage. The season doesn't end in January, as we've seen so many times before.

 

I said 7 or 8 at the turn of the year, and stated why. Without the investment that we couldn't have been sure we were getting due to the owner's iffy record of spending, we would have been much worse off than we are now points wise. Stu, like yourself,a hindsight prophet, stated he was a 1 pre-investment. Absolute lunacy.

 

Eh? Are you being serious, or what? I said all of this at the time. Investment, players returning, the lot. There's no hindsight involved.

 

It's also not lunacy. The fact we're in the positon we are now is a pretty fucking good testament to that.

 

So it was madness for people rightly worried about relegation to vote 9 at Christmas,but not for contrary WUMs to vote 1?

 

You for real ?

 

Eh (again)? I've said why I think it's madness for someone to say 'we're definitely down', five months before the end of the season, when we weren't even in the relegation zone. It wouldn't have been so mad if we'd been in QPR's position, but even they had a chance of getting out of it.

 

What all the 'contrary WUM' shit is, other than childish, I don't know. Did I gain this title just by having a different opinion to the majority?

 

And yet isn't madness to say we definitely wouldn't ? Even in the current positivity, it would be so. Why can't you see that ?

 

Because it's not 'madness', man! I don't think anyone could be 'certain' that we'd have definitely stayed up or went down, there are just too many variables (and Joe Kinnear is still alive). It was a controversial opinion, grounded in experience of what's went before and a lack of melodrama. Things were always going to pick up, we had two of our best players to come back and we had new players to come in. We had far worse teams below us without these plus points to look forward to. It was a rough time, and a terrible run of form. At no point were we in the relegation zone, though.

 

So to vote 1 or 10 ,definitely up or down is a tad bonkers then......you are actually agreeing with me ffs.

 

Am I fuck.

 

Honestly, this is just pointless. You're just going to keep shifting it. I'm entitled to my opinion, which I'm not using to be a WUM. I don't claim that it's the definitive opinion on the subject.

 

TBF to Inochi he's been propagating this opinion for a while RE: relegation/Pards stuff to a response of a fair bit of flak. It's hardly reactionist drivel after the event has happened.

 

I know Inochi has been consistent with his opinion,and hasn't shied away ,unlike others who now share a similar opinion, during the lower times. The point really is about the scale of the poll.

 

It's not about the scale of the poll at all. I've never argued the scale. It's about negative, defeatist, melodramatic predictions.

 

Claptrap. It wasn't any of those things when Pardew somehow manufactured defeat from the jaws of victory against Reading. It was reality. And thankfully Ashley did something about it. That's all there is to it.

 

Ah, man. You can't tell me I'm wrong when things are working out nearly exactly as I thought they would. I've given my reasons why I think it is, so many times. Supporting my argument, you know? I'm also pretty confident that my words are expressing my opinion too as, well, they're my words from my head.

 

Because it's not 'madness', man! I don't think anyone could be 'certain' that we'd have definitely stayed up or went down, there are just too many variables (and Joe Kinnear is still alive). It was a controversial opinion, grounded in experience of what's went before and a lack of melodrama. Things were always going to pick up, we had two of our best players to come back and we had new players to come in. We had far worse teams below us without these plus points to look forward to. It was a rough time, and a terrible run of form. At no point were we in the relegation zone, though.

 

bold seems to be the crux of the issue, especially the new players coming in...what the likes of myself and incognito are saying is that on form, without the new players (which were far from a guarantee) we were in danger of going down

 

stu was arguing the returning players may have saved us anyway and pushing cisse into the middle, i'd argue back to that and say HBA still hasn't played and cisse hasn't been prolific despite having better players around him

 

all points to us struggling rather than the opposite i'm afraid, IF the new players hadn't come in

 

oh and that doesn't take into account how fragile pardew was looking in every respect

 

EDIT: also the other teams down there have more or less been picking up points slowly with the exception of QPR, evidence of that is that we've won 3 games recently and still aren't that far away

[Guest icemanblue]

Your whole argument is 'what if', though, isn't it? Because what I predicted, and believed would happen, did actually happen. You can't tell me that you seriously didn't believe we'd at least go out and buy a centre half and a striker?

[Jack Flash]

If we had far worse teams below us it didn't show as we've consistently given them points all season.

[mrmojorisin75]

Your whole argument is 'what if', though, isn't it? Because what I predicted, and believed would happen, did actually happen. You can't tell me that you seriously didn't believe we'd at least go out and buy a centre half and a striker?

 

i thought we'd try, but i also thought ashley might continue his policy from the summer of being immovable on fees and that could hurt us

 

as i said, i'd argue it was far from a guarantee we'd get good reinforcements...i didn't and never said it wouldn't happen 100%

 

all of these arguments are what if man, you didn't know we'd sign who we did in january you just chose to be positive...people have done the same on this board and looked foolish in the past, ozziemandias iirc for one

[Guest icemanblue]

Sigh.

 

Anyway, it was fucking daft to say we were definitely down, for the reasons I've stated, in fucking January. The end.

[mrmojorisin75]

sigh indeed

[aussiemag]

Wrong thread maybe. But I really hope Ashley is getting a real buzz from the success of all the new signings. Hopefully he recognises we are still a forward short of a top squad. Plus a few backups. Hope this encourages him to spend again.

[Incognito]

Sigh.

 

Anyway, it was fucking daft to say we were definitely down, for the reasons I've stated, in fucking January. The end.

 

 

Likewise it is daft especially then, but also now to a much lesser extent that we are definitely not going down either.

[Guest icemanblue]

Sigh.

 

Anyway, it was fucking daft to say we were definitely down, for the reasons I've stated, in fucking January. The end.

 

 

Likewise it is daft especially then, but also now to a much lesser extent that we are definitely not going down either.

 

Nah.

[Stu]

bold seems to be the crux of the issue, especially the new players coming in...what the likes of myself and incognito are saying is that on form, without the new players (which were far from a guarantee) we were in danger of going down

 

stu was arguing the returning players may have saved us anyway and pushing cisse into the middle, i'd argue back to that and say HBA still hasn't played and cisse hasn't been prolific despite having better players around him

 

all points to us struggling rather than the opposite i'm afraid, IF the new players hadn't come in

 

oh and that doesn't take into account how fragile pardew was looking in every respect

 

EDIT: also the other teams down there have more or less been picking up points slowly with the exception of QPR, evidence of that is that we've won 3 games recently and still aren't that far away

 

I think any manager going on that run of 11 defeats in 13 (IAC) is going to be looking fragile from a confidence perspective. Whatever he was trying to achieve with the available group of players just wasn't happening - in November, it was a series of woeful performances. In December, the performances picked up but the results weren't falling our way (contrast to the previous season).

 

Didn't he admit in January that he was glad/relieved to have the injured players back and the new arrivals to boost the squad?

 

The point ref: form sending us down - I've maintained that the 11 in 13 (IAC) was due to the circumstances and misfortune that had occurred in Nov/Dec. I just couldn't imagine, nor foresee that continuing for the next couple of months. Not even a 10% chance (1).

[mrmojorisin75]

bold seems to be the crux of the issue, especially the new players coming in...what the likes of myself and incognito are saying is that on form, without the new players (which were far from a guarantee) we were in danger of going down

 

stu was arguing the returning players may have saved us anyway and pushing cisse into the middle, i'd argue back to that and say HBA still hasn't played and cisse hasn't been prolific despite having better players around him

 

all points to us struggling rather than the opposite i'm afraid, IF the new players hadn't come in

 

oh and that doesn't take into account how fragile pardew was looking in every respect

 

EDIT: also the other teams down there have more or less been picking up points slowly with the exception of QPR, evidence of that is that we've won 3 games recently and still aren't that far away

 

I think any manager going on that run of 11 defeats in 13 (IAC) is going to be looking fragile from a confidence perspective. Whatever he was trying to achieve with the available group of players just wasn't happening - in November, it was a series of woeful performances. In December, the performances picked up but the results weren't falling our way (contrast to the previous season).

 

Didn't he admit in January that he was glad/relieved to have the injured players back and the new arrivals to boost the squad?

 

The point ref: form sending us down - I've maintained that the 11 in 13 (IAC) was due to the circumstances and misfortune that had occurred in Nov/Dec. I just couldn't imagine, nor foresee that continuing for the next couple of months. Not even a 10% chance (1).

 

pardew talks a lot Stu, probably a quote out there saying how desperate he was for new players to add to the squad as well, maybe when he was blaming everything on the youngsters perhaps?

 

as for the bit in italic i've never argued with you, you're right, where we differ is i didn't see anything in the managers performance during those games to suggest he could break us out of it and i made the reasonable leap that a bad run of 11 in 13 can quite easily become a horrendous run

 

think back to the villa game Stu, we all went into that more or less expecting to lose, had we lost then lost to chelsea and spurs we might well be having a different conversation right now as i personally don't think taylor and cabaye returning would have turned it around alone...it needed something new from the manager imo, or an influx of players....the new players changed everything, without them we could easily and most likely would have been 6-9 points worse off now

[Incognito]

It is fair to say that had we not have brought the new lads in, that the results at Villa and at home to Chelsea probably would have been different, such was the impact they, especially Moussa had in those games. Think of the position we would have been in without those 6 points.

[mrmojorisin75]

we'd be on 24 points, assuming we beat southhampton which would not have been a given, worst case 21 points and villa/saints might have had the boost and points associated with beating us behind them as well

 

so potentially 21 points at the end of february, nothing to worry about

 

before anyone starts of course it's speculation but we're talking about why we felt like relegation was a real possibility back then and here's the answer

[cp40]

TEN

[Disco]

[NG32]

Staying on a firm 6.

[bowlingcrofty]

Staying on a firm 6.

 

You think we're more likely to go down than stay up?

[NG32]

Staying on a firm 6.

 

You think we're more likely to go down than stay up?

 

Not this again.  :lol:

[Guest ItalianMagpie]

I don't think we're going down, but it's not gonna be a bunch of new players that guarantee us to stay up if we keep losing.

I think our away form is disgraceful even for a club that is rock bottom, and that's never gonna change as long as Pardew is our manager: it's safe to say we could actually lose away to any single team from League Two to EPL, and that's mainly due to the ridiculous approach we have the minute we put our feet on the pitch. You just can't give away 45 minutes every time and play the other 45 mostly trying not to concede and hoping to nick a wondergoal from somewhere.

 

We got a better squad now, no doubt about that, but we struggled as hell at Villa, we struggled to beat Southampton (somehow good performance, but apart from the 4 goals, of which one was a comical own goal and one was a penalty, the keeper didn't even touch the ball the whole game), we struggled to beat Metalist (and we have to thank their defender for the gift).

The only really good game was with Chelsea, the rest is just not good enough.

Now, we certainly improved since the disaster of November/December, but we're far from being safe imho.

And if we can't even think about a win away till the end of the season it's gonna be a hell.

[ExiledGeordie]

 

Agree and disagree with what you say. We've been utterly shite this season but I thought both the performances against Metalist away and Southampton at home were good performances. If we piss about against Stoke at home a week today though and fail to put them away then things will start getting nervy again.

[Teasy]

I don't think we're going down, but it's not gonna be a bunch of new players that guarantee us to stay up if we keep losing.

 

[Tiresias]

Fear of the drop...receeding...

 

Nearly to safety now!