Relegationometer

[SEMTEX]

Basically, we could well get knocked for six against QPR only to put 25 past Arsenal.

 

Maybe.

[Guest TheGreatBeardo]

My worse case scenario (i.e we lose every game, which we won't) came out as:

 

 

Thank you.

[Guest Roy the Irish Magpie]

I agree they are massively inconsistent - my fear is they will cut us to ribbons if we play like we did on Sunday? They're a dangerous side with pace and the way we defend that has to be a worry. If Suarez is up for it it could be a long 90 minutes.

 

I don't think we'll play as bad as on Sunday against them. Our players will have more recovery time and that game will be our one and only focus for that week. Suarez is a threat, no doubts, but as long as he doesn't produce a moment of genius like in the 1-1 game, get a FK his ideal spot, and we handle him as well as we did for the majority of that Anfield match I think it'll be okay.

 

I mentioned Sunday and in my opinion the reason we lost as badly as we did to Sunderland is because Di Cannio planned all week for that match, all week their sole focus was on how to beat us and getting prepared etc and it was all they wanted. Us on the other hand we had a QF we really wanted to win too and put at least most our attention on our plan for that game after the Fulham match which left us with just 2 days to prepare solely for Sunderland. Pardew probably just told his players to rest for most those 2 days so we went into the derby a hell of a lot less prepared for it than Sunderland were and that showed on the pitch because Sunderland knew exactly what they were doing, they even had new set pieces set up to try against us, where's all we did was to cross it and hope for the best.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I didn't realise how hard Villa's run in is.

[brummie]

I didn't realise how hard Villa's run in is.

 

Nah.

 

Next home game is Sunderland, and there's no way we'd lose at home to a team that shit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*cheeky wink*

[South-Cheshire-Toon]

My worse case scenario (i.e we lose every game, which we won't) came out as:

 

 

As I said before - it's up to Wigan, (3rd bottom) to win, and with them now in the FA Cup final, I honestly can't see them winning that many games, with them to play :-

 

17-Apr Man City

20-Apr West Ham

27-Apr Spurs

04-May West Brom

07-May Swansea

12-May FA Cup

15/5 ? Arsenal

19-May Aston Villa

 

The last 5 games are in 15 days !!!

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Would 36 be the lowest ever survival total? Guess that's why nobody in our position has ever gone down... if we could lose every game and still survive.

 

Not that I'd like to test the theory.

[Guest Roger Kint]

Would 36 be the lowest ever survival total? Guess that's why nobody in our position has ever gone down... if we could lose every game and still survive.

 

Not that I'd like to test the theory.

 

Didnt someone stay up on 34 or something the year Boro went down with a points deduction?

[Ronaldo]

Hull stayed up with 35 in 09.

[Ronaldo]

Would 36 be the lowest ever survival total? Guess that's why nobody in our position has ever gone down... if we could lose every game and still survive.

 

Not that I'd like to test the theory.

 

Didnt someone stay up on 34 or something the year Boro went down with a points deduction?

 

Sunderland went down on 40 points or so that season I think.

[afar]

My worse case scenario (i.e we lose every game, which we won't) came out as:

 

 

Mine based on us picking up a point at home to Liverpool and a point away to QPR, we could pick up another point at WBA or West Ham but difficult to see where other points are coming from. Had us finishing 17th with Villa down on 35 points, I probably overestimated Wigan but the jammy bastards look like they are doing what they do had them finishing on 42 points.

 

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[oldtype]

Suddenly looking massively comfortable again if Wigan fuck up their other game in hand.

[Ronaldo]

The dog fight would be bloody good fun to watch this year if we weren't a part of it.

[pi_D]

I agree they are massively inconsistent - my fear is they will cut us to ribbons if we play like we did on Sunday? They're a dangerous side with pace and the way we defend that has to be a worry. If Suarez is up for it it could be a long 90 minutes.

 

I don't think we'll play as bad as on Sunday against them. Our players will have more recovery time and that game will be our one and only focus for that week. Suarez is a threat, no doubts, but as long as he doesn't produce a moment of genius like in the 1-1 game, get a FK his ideal spot, and we handle him as well as we did for the majority of that Anfield match I think it'll be okay.

 

I mentioned Sunday and in my opinion the reason we lost as badly as we did to Sunderland is because Di Cannio planned all week for that match, all week their sole focus was on how to beat us and getting prepared etc and it was all they wanted. Us on the other hand we had a QF we really wanted to win too and put at least most our attention on our plan for that game after the Fulham match which left us with just 2 days to prepare solely for Sunderland. Pardew probably just told his players to rest for most those 2 days so we went into the derby a hell of a lot less prepared for it than Sunderland were and that showed on the pitch because Sunderland knew exactly what they were doing, they even had new set pieces set up to try against us, where's all we did was to cross it and hope for the best.

 

Good post

[Optimistic Nut]

That may be true to an extent but the last sentence is what we've done for 18 months.

[Guest ItalianMagpie]

From the highlights it looks like Wigan dominated yesterday

A lot of well built chances and pretty unlucky to come out with nothing. Big difference with our performance over there.

I reckon they are gonna easily beat Swansea, who are already on holiday.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

In a way that's an example of why we probably won't go down. Teams like Wigan play nice football but when it counts they still usually get beat.

[Mick]

In a way that's an example of why we probably won't go down. Teams like Wigan play nice football but when it counts they still usually get beat.

 

Good point, that never happens to us.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

In a way that's an example of why we probably won't go down. Teams like Wigan play nice football but when it counts they still usually get beat.

 

Good point, that never happens to us.

 

Course it does, but luckily we're a few points ahead.

[alpal78]

In a way that's an example of why we probably won't go down. Teams like Wigan play nice football but when it counts they still usually get beat.

 

Good point, that never happens to us.

 

Course it does, but luckily we're a few points ahead.

 

So then the only difference is the fact that we're a couple of points ahead which can easily vanish with teams below chalking up a few points. Whilst I'm silently optimistic, unless we get one more win, we are far from being safe and if ever will escape by the skin of our teeth.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I didn't say we were safe, I said that was a reason why we probably won't go down. Obviously our lead can vanish, but my whole point was that they are just as unlikely to pick up points as we are (if not more).

[Mick]

I didn't say we were safe, I said that was a reason why we probably won't go down. Obviously our lead can vanish, but my whole point was that they are just as unlikely to pick up points as we are (if not more).

 

Wigan might go down, they may also stay up like they've repeatedly done in the recent past while the only time we've been in this position we've folded.  We don't win away from home and we have 2 remaining home games against teams who could expect to beat us. 

 

What we have going for us is that Wigan have a distraction and might suffer for that.

 

Anybody who thinks we are currently safe needs medical help.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

As I said, I don't think we're safe. But we don't just need Wigan to outscore us, we need every team below us to do the same.

 

Apparently nobody has ever gone down from where we are now, so obviously when we folded it wasn't from this position.

 

I'm obviously worried though.

[Mick]

As I said, I don't think we're safe. But we don't just need Wigan to outscore us, we need every team below us to do the same.

 

Apparently nobody has ever gone down from where we are now, so obviously when we folded it wasn't from this position.

 

I'm obviously worried though.

 

Norwich, Stoke and the mackems are 1 win from going above us, Villa are one big win and one heavy defeat for us from going above us so any of those teams could easily go above.  Wigan are two wins away from us but they still have a game in hand and they should still win games if they play like they did last night.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

As I said, I don't think we're safe. But we don't just need Wigan to outscore us, we need every team below us to do the same.

 

Apparently nobody has ever gone down from where we are now, so obviously when we folded it wasn't from this position.

 

I'm obviously worried though.

 

Norwich, Stoke and the mackems are 1 win from going above us, Villa are one big win and one heavy defeat for us from going above us so any of those teams could easily go above.  Wigan are two wins away from us but they still have a game in hand and they should still win games if they play like they did last night.

 

I know all that, it doesn't change my argument. The whole point is that all of those things you mention would have to happen simultaneously.