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Relegationometer

Yorkie

by Yorkie
in Football

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Relegationometer  

332 members have voted

  1. 1. We going down then or what? 10 - aye, doomed, no hope of salvation / 5 - can't call it / 0 - nah we're sound, can't wait for next season

    • 0
      20
    • 1
      19
    • 2
      16
    • 3
      18
    • 4
      20
    • 5
      27
    • 6
      22
    • 7
      17
    • 8
      37
    • 9
      25
    • 10
      35

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Guest neesy111

Guest neesy111

Posted
Posted

If it comes down to the final game at Fulham, I genuinely won't sleep that week. Too much stress :lol:

Wow. To care that much any more.

Fair play if you do, but not me.

 

I'd just laugh if we went down again.

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Yorkie

Yorkie

Posted
Posted

It would be a strange feeling. I'd be feeling nervous and stressed but only for a NUFC that doesn't actually exist yet. The failure of this entity, conversely, would be something to almost celebrate; it getting relegated would be the greatest vindication to anyone who turned their back on the club after Rafa.

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Ketsbaia

Ketsbaia

Posted
Posted

If it comes down to the final game at Fulham, I genuinely won't sleep that week. Too much stress :lol:

Wow. To care that much any more.

Fair play if you do, but not me.

Only because I'm sure we won't bounce straight back up this time :lol: We'll drift like Leeds

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Robster

Robster

Posted
Posted

If it comes down to the final game at Fulham, I genuinely won't sleep that week. Too much stress :lol:

Wow. To care that much any more.

Fair play if you do, but not me.

Only because I'm sure we won't bounce straight back up this time :lol: We'll drift like Leeds

Again.... I don't care if that's what happens :lol:

I'm not pinning my hopes on the takeover happening any more. As it stands, Mike Ashley owns the club and therefore I want it to fail badly. I only hope that he's footing the bill for Nick de Marco because if he is, and it all fails anyway, i'll take a tiny bit of pleasure in that.

 

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PlymouthGeordie

PlymouthGeordie

Posted
Posted

So I've done a bit of research of the last 10 years (I didn't go back further) and no team that has been 7 points adrift after 23 games has EVER stayed up.

 

Wigan closed a 5 point gap in 2011/12. After 23 games they had 16 points, in their final 15 games they amassed a huge 27 points (1.8 PPG) to finish on 43 points and survive comfortably.

 

No team with less than 19 points (Fulham currently have 18) after 23 games has survived in the last 10 years.

 

Also in that time, the team in 17th after 23 games has never had as many points as we do (25). Only once in the last 10 years has the team in 16th had 25 points after 23 games.

 

Last season, Villa had 22 points (4 more than Fulham) at this stage and survived with 35 points. The team with 19 points after 23 games in the 18/19 season went down with 34 points. In the 17/18 season 3rd bottom after 23 games had 20 points and were relegated with 33 points.

 

Palace were the last team to survive with 19 points after 23 games in the 16/17 season and in that season 35 points kept you up.

 

In the last 10 seasons, 3rd bottom has gone down with an average of 35.1 points. In the last 5 seasons that has reduced to 34.4 points but bear in mind each of those teams had more than the 18 points Fulham currently have after 23 games.

 

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but history tells us 35 points guarantees safety based on the last 5 years and 3 wins and and a draw gets us to 35 and it's not unrealistic to expect that kind of return from 15 games. If we get that, Fulham need 6 wins from 15 games to finish on more points than us.

 

We may well go down, but based on history it would take a minor miracle.

 

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PlymouthGeordie

PlymouthGeordie

Posted
Posted

So I've done a bit of research of the last 10 years (I didn't go back further) and no team that has been 7 points adrift after 23 games has EVER stayed up.

 

What about 4 points adrift after 24 games?

 

If that's how the league table was then it wouldn't take much to run the data but I'm not going to run scenarios that don't (currently) exist.

 

The data as of today is pretty conclusive though (I'm a spreadsheet geek because of my job).

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Holmesy

Holmesy

Posted
Posted

Sick to f***ing death having to worry about this s**** every year.

 

:sadnod:

 

Especially when we know how easily avoidable it is. One or two sensible decisions and we're comfortably mid table every year, without increasing our meagre budgets

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Conjo

Conjo

Posted
Posted

So I've done a bit of research of the last 10 years (I didn't go back further) and no team that has been 7 points adrift after 23 games has EVER stayed up.

 

What about 4 points adrift after 24 games?

 

If that's how the league table was then it wouldn't take much to run the data but I'm not going to run scenarios that don't (currently) exist.

 

The data as of today is pretty conclusive though (I'm a spreadsheet geek because of my job).

 

No worries, wasn't meant as a serious request :) I do think there's a good chance we're only 4 points ahead come wednesday though, and if it's one team that strives to break every negative record in book then it's us.

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PlymouthGeordie

PlymouthGeordie

Posted
Posted

So I've done a bit of research of the last 10 years (I didn't go back further) and no team that has been 7 points adrift after 23 games has EVER stayed up.

 

What about 4 points adrift after 24 games?

 

If that's how the league table was then it wouldn't take much to run the data but I'm not going to run scenarios that don't (currently) exist.

 

The data as of today is pretty conclusive though (I'm a spreadsheet geek because of my job).

 

No worries, wasn't meant as a serious request :) I do think there's a good chance we're only 4 points ahead come wednesday though, and if it's one team that strives to break every negative record in book then it's us.

 

Absolutely. If it is going to happen to anyone it'll happen to us.

 

Regarding the game on Wednesday, it needs to be remembered Burnley are only a point above us so won't be taking Fulham lightly. I can see Burnley winning it and that would then really ramp the pressure up on Fulham ahead  of their game with Sheff Utd.

 

Alternatively, a shock win for us tonight will deflate Fulham massively.

 

Ultimately, as someone else has said, we just need to see where we are after the Wolves game and assess from there but as things stand today the chances of us going down (based on previous seasons) is slim to none.

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