The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[Superior Acuña]

10 hours ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Christ. 

 

There's always people who mistake over-the-top pessimism for realism, obviously it's not. The fact is there are 26 games worth 1-3 points left in which to close a 5 point/3 team gap, while we've a new manager that hasn't had time to implement change yet, and a transfer window coming up. It's obviously possible we stay up. I've shifted to a 6, slightly more likely to down - that's more a result of Watford and Villa winning, plus Brentford getting their point v us. I had more hope a week or so ago that those three teams were one on their way down for us to catch.

[Guest HTT II]

7 hours ago, Lazarus said:

Theres no way were going down.

 

The current squad with zero additions in January should be enough to climb to safety.

 

Its November, Howe has another 7 months to work with the players, to grow their confidence, to improve their passing, to improve their fitness, to work on tactics, the owners have 7 months to start improving stuff behind the scenes which will give everyone a boost, us as fans have 7 months to cheer and encourage the team etc etc....

 

And all that is with the existing players.

 

We also have the January transfer window where anyone deemed deadwood can be shipped out and new talent can be brought in.

 

Defensive talent.

 

Attacking talent.

 

Expensive talent.

 

Maybe even world class talent.

 

Howe then has upto 5 months to work with these players.

 

Theres no way we are going down.

 

 

Wow, I wish I had your confidence, we look doomed in every game we play. Sure Howe will have a positive impact, but we sit bottom, 12 games gone, with just 6 points, the odds are massively against us. 

[bowlingcrofty]

Our next three games

 

Arsenal

Norwich

Burnley

 

Watfords next three

 

Leicester

Man City

Chelsea

 

Burnley’s next three

 

Spurs

Wolves

Newcastle

Leeds next three 

 

Brighton

Palace

Brentford

(followed by a horror Christmas run similar to ours)

 

Brentford next three

 

Everton

Spurs

Leeds

 

The importance of the next few fixtures is massive. Two wins and we could be in and around the pack.

 

 

[Cronky]

I'd give it 7. We're not going to pick up many points before January, other teams above the relegation zone are doing okay, and we're going to have some difficulty recruiting good players in our position. I don't think we'll get any players from the Premiership, because all the other clubs want us to go down.

 

It's a weird situation without any parallel that I can think of - a newly rich club in desperate trouble with only one window to make things happen.

[Dr.Spaceman]

As long as we're 17th or at least within striking distance of 17th leading into Jan I think we'll be comfortable.

[The Prophet]

11 hours ago, Yorkie said:

When looking at fixture lists there's always a temptation to assume that games against the top 4 or 5 sides are insta-defeats, but I feel like it never works out that way unless you're truly irreparably shite. Just last season West Brom won 5-2 at Chelsea; Sheffield United won at ManU; Fulham won at both Liverpool and Leicester. Season before that, Norwich beat Man City; Watford beat ManU and Liverpool; and Bournemouth beat ManU and Chelsea. Even we took 13 points off the 'big six' last time we went down. 

 

We'll pick up our results against that lot this time too, I'm sure of it. The ones against Burnley, Norwich etc are still the biggest opportunities obviously. But the point I'm making is that the pool of points available definitely is 78 points, rather than less than that, purely on account of us being 15+ positions in the table behind some opponents. 

 

Good post. Fans talk as if we can't take points off sides higher than 10th, when even last season under Bruce, we did the double over West Ham and Everton, won at Leicester, and drew at home to Liverpool. Especially given we'll continue to improve in the coming weeks. If we attack games, they're all winnable, maybe other than against the top three, but even they drop points.

 

I also think the 'no other side has escaped from this position' is a bit irrelevant, when we've got a completely unique set of circumstances, including a vast improvement in the dugout and a huge budget in January.

 

We're massively in the shit, but there's still plenty of reason to think we can escape.

[HaydnNUFC]

Did a results predictor up to matchweek 19 (Man Utd home), using 1-0 for wins and 1-1 for draws. Out of hope, I have us beating Norwich, Burnley and Leicester then drawing with Man Utd. Have us on 16 points, 17th, 1 clear of 18th.

 

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

[PlymouthGeordie]

Stating the obvious but 6 points is a must vs Norwich and Burnley.

 

If Howe had another week on the training ground with the players I could see us getting something at Arsenal. Him not being there this week can't be underestimated.

 

Our biggest problem is, if come January 1st we're 10-12 points from safety the transfer window becomes a write off. No chance a 28 year Tarkowski and Lingard sign knowing they'll be 30 by the time they next play in the prem.

 

Given the cold, hard facts of the league table and December fixtures I'd struggle to understand anyone saying they're less than a 7. That said, under Howe I no longer write off games against the "big 6" like I did under Bruce so could definitely see the odd win or point in those games.

 

It's far from over, but the table does look grim. A win on Saturday would work wonders. We just need that first win to kick start our season.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I think players might still come if they have a relegation release clause or loan to buy. It's still better than sitting on the bench at Man Utd.

[Dr.Spaceman]

22 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

Did a results predictor up to matchweek 19 (Man Utd home), using 1-0 for wins and 1-1 for draws. Out of hope, I have us beating Norwich, Burnley and Leicester then drawing with Man Utd. Have us on 16 points, 17th, 1 clear of 18th.

 

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

 

This would be absolutely ideal. Get to this stage and we'll stay up.

[Raconteur]

4 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

I think players might still come if they have a relegation release clause or loan to buy. It's still better than sitting on the bench at Man Utd.

Exactly - as we did with Townsend. 

[HaydnNUFC]

19 minutes ago, Dr.Spaceman said:

 

This would be absolutely ideal. Get to this stage and we'll stay up.

 

Aye. Massive games in January for us after too.

 

2 Jan - Southampton (a)

15 Jan - Watford (h)

22 Jan - Leeds (a)

[Raconteur]

2 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

 

Aye. Massive games in January for us after too.

 

2 Jan - Southampton (a)

15 Jan - Watford (h)

22 Jan - Leeds (a)

Didn’t realise the first match after the window opened was Southampton. JWP to debut against his old club, please…

[Dr.Spaceman]

33 minutes ago, Raconteur said:

Didn’t realise the first match after the window opened was Southampton. JWP to debut against his old club, please…

 

I can see Raphina leaving Leeds before the 22nd too

 

 

Edited November 22, 2021 by Dr.Spaceman

[madras]

1 hour ago, Raconteur said:

Didn’t realise the first match after the window opened was Southampton. JWP to debut against his old club, please…

Wouldn't think players could be registered on New year's day, office shut, faxes off and all that.

[Superior Acuña]

Last season we went on a run of 7 points from 12 games (8 from 14, 12 from 19). Between wins on the 12th Dec and 11th April, we won just two (drawing 6 and losing 11). We won 5 from 8 at the end.

 

If we could turn things around like that with Bruce and no transfer window, bewilders me how people think we can't with Howe and a transfer window. People must rate Bruce more than I thought.

[rgk_lfc]

As an outsider, I think you will be safe this season. You had one of the worst coaches managing the first one-third of the season. Eddie How is quality.

Here is what I wrote about him in another post in May.

 

"Regarding Howe, I think he is a quality coach with a style of play which fits very well the ethos of a progressive club. I like his Bournemouth style more than early Rodgers (and I really rate Rodgers). I felt that Rodgers Swansea and early LFC teams, sometimes passed for the sake of passing, so that he can gloat about passing statistics in the press conference. I feel Howe's team pass with more purpose. And maybe his transfers were not good. But it is not like players were queuing up to play for Bournemouth.  Even if he has not got an eye for a player, I don't think it will be a problem. Lot of clubs - LFC, Brentford, Leicester, Wolves- have moved onto a DOF model where the manager focuses on coaching and tactics only. I am confident more will adopt that model. He will excel in that model where he can just focus on coaching and player improvement.  "

 

I feel that in a couple of more games, you will start to see the effect of his coaching. Couple that with a four or five decent signings in January, you will have enough firepower to be safe. You have 26 more games to make up 8 points (to be safe 9 points due to your goal difference), over clubs which are currently 13-17. It is going to be tough but it is doable.  Personally rate Howe's reign at Bournemouth to be one of English football's greatest achievements. He is more than capable of against the odds achievements as he has that on his CV. Once you get a couple of wins, the mood lift due to the takeover, the energy from the fans, couple of signings, the momentum will be on your side. You will ride that wave to safety.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 22, 2021 by rgk_lfc

[Beth]

2nd fav to go down. All depends on the transfer window imo. Anyone remember the QPR under 'Arry? Brought in a load of over 30 mercenary journeymen and dropped like a stone, they're still paying for it today.

[rgk_lfc]

7 hours ago, The Prophet said:

I also think the 'no other side has escaped from this position' is a bit irrelevant, when we've got a completely unique set of circumstances, including a vast improvement in the dugout and a huge budget in January.

 

 

I don't think any of the clubs which were used to calculate that relegation statistic has had such a massive injection of goodwill, energy, enthusiasm at all levels of the club and the fanbase. 

[Superior Acuña]

8 hours ago, The Prophet said:

 

 

 

I also think the 'no other side has escaped from this position' is a bit irrelevant, when we've got a completely unique set of circumstances, including a vast improvement in the dugout and a huge budget in January.

 

We're massively in the shit, but there's still plenty of reason to think we can escape.

Yes - also this 'no other side apart from Derby has escaped from this position' is about our form under Bruce, Jones and 1 game under Howe. In terms of actual points from safety, loads of teams have survived after being 5 points from safety, often with much fewer games left.

[cubaricho]

1 hour ago, Inferior Acuña said:

Last season we went on a run of 7 points from 12 games (8 from 14, 12 from 19). Between wins on the 12th Dec and 11th April, we won just two (drawing 6 and losing 11). We won 5 from 8 at the end.

 

If we could turn things around like that with Bruce and no transfer window, bewilders me how people think we can't with Howe and a transfer window. People must rate Bruce more than I thought.

 

15 minutes ago, Inferior Acuña said:

In terms of actual points from safety, loads of teams have survived after being 5 points from safety, often with much fewer games left.

 

 

Hell yeah.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

There’s no such thing as ‘safety’ in November anyway, it’s a weird way to talk about it. 

[MrRaspberryJam]

We've only lost one more game than Wolves, Spurs, Man Utd, Leicester and Brentford. We've lost fewer games than Villa, Watford and Norwich too. 

 

It's the draws that have killed us so far. We're really paying the price for Darlow's clanger on Saturday, the last 15 seconds at home to Southampton and Murphy's moronic effort in the last second against Watford. 

 

I'm a million miles away from panic stations right now, and I think once we get our first win it'll be a monkey off the players' back. 

 

It'd be typical Newcastle to turn over Arsenal on Saturday and then lose to Norwich.

[TRon]

16 hours ago, rgk_lfc said:

As an outsider, I think you will be safe this season. You had one of the worst coaches managing the first one-third of the season. Eddie How is quality.

Here is what I wrote about him in another post in May.

 

"Regarding Howe, I think he is a quality coach with a style of play which fits very well the ethos of a progressive club. I like his Bournemouth style more than early Rodgers (and I really rate Rodgers). I felt that Rodgers Swansea and early LFC teams, sometimes passed for the sake of passing, so that he can gloat about passing statistics in the press conference. I feel Howe's team pass with more purpose. And maybe his transfers were not good. But it is not like players were queuing up to play for Bournemouth.  Even if he has not got an eye for a player, I don't think it will be a problem. Lot of clubs - LFC, Brentford, Leicester, Wolves- have moved onto a DOF model where the manager focuses on coaching and tactics only. I am confident more will adopt that model. He will excel in that model where he can just focus on coaching and player improvement.  "

 

I feel that in a couple of more games, you will start to see the effect of his coaching. Couple that with a four or five decent signings in January, you will have enough firepower to be safe. You have 26 more games to make up 8 points (to be safe 9 points due to your goal difference), over clubs which are currently 13-17. It is going to be tough but it is doable.  Personally rate Howe's reign at Bournemouth to be one of English football's greatest achievements. He is more than capable of against the odds achievements as he has that on his CV. Once you get a couple of wins, the mood lift due to the takeover, the energy from the fans, couple of signings, the momentum will be on your side. You will ride that wave to safety.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regardless of what happens this season, I think Howe might go on to be one of England's most celebrated managers, so I agree with your thoughts. Because of his relegation with Bournemouth the really big teams were not really looking at him, they are always going to go for the Contes and the Pochettinos. But from what I've read since he became our manager, I am convinced by the end of his time here he will be a hot property. Personally I think we hit lucky that Unai Wummery turned us down. He's a top coach, but not really sure he has the same identity that Howe brings, and Howe also has big enough shoulders to take the pressure. Not sure that's so true of Unai. 

[HawK]

I'm ambivalent, providing the owners keep Howe if we do go down. He's the man that needs backing. When players realize they have no power because the manager has the club and the fan's full support, suddenly they either put up or shut up. 

 

With respect to Rafa, as a man and a manager I admire deeply, we've now been playing very negative counter-attacking football for over 5 years. Most of these players have been here that long and really don't know another way to play. Some may never be able to play front-foot football with confidence. We're going to probably need a sea-change in personnel in the squad or we risk the 'rot' spreading to our new players. It reminds me of the England situation with Southgate. I recall that he really didn't like having much of the old guard in the squad from the underachieving years.

 

Rambling now, ;tldr, I hope the board sticks with Howe even if we do go down. He gets it.