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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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This is looking very rough. The owners have to get used to the pace. Took far too long in sacking Bruce, far too long in hiring a replacement and should have had more lined up before the transfer window opened. I'm fairly sure this means we're down. Spurs hired Conte literally the day after sacking Nuno and we don't seem to be able to compete with Villa for players. It's massively frustrating. 

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2 hours ago, Fantail Breeze said:

A draw would be ideal. Beyond that either result would be a bit crap. 

 

Burnley winning slightly less crap than Watford but mindful of the fact Burnley would have 2 more games in hand.

 

Against Spurs and Leicester mind.

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Just thinkig about how shit Watford were on Saturday. I cannot see them winning any/many more games this season.. Norwich here were also dire as were Burnley who will strugle to pick up 

 

If (and its a big if) we can manage to get a few surprise results I think we can still get out of it.

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15 minutes ago, mofo said:

Just thinkig about how shit Watford were on Saturday. I cannot see them winning any/many more games this season.. Norwich here were also dire as were Burnley who will strugle to pick up 

 

If (and its a big if) we can manage to get a few surprise results I think we can still get out of it.

 

They will need to be surprise results, we aren't winning against the teams around us, means we will have to start getting wins against the better teams soon. I don't see any way back unless we get another 2-4 players in tbh, it's this window or bust. 

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The way I’m seeing it is, if we make it to 36 points we’ll be safe. 8 wins, 7 wins and a few draws.


On paper I reckon there’s 11 games we need to look at winning in theory, giving 3 games leeway. The rest are write-offs.

 

We need to win 8 of:

 

Leeds (a)

Everton (h)

Villa (h)

Brentford (a)

Brighton (h)

Palace (h)

Wolves (h)

Leicester (h)

Burnley (a)

Southampton (a)

Everton (a)


 

 

 

 

 

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I don't think we can do enough in January to turn this team from 1 win in 20 to 8 in 18. The team is so monumentally poor all over the pitch, we'd need a CB and two CMs to have half a chance imo. Our midfield and defence is absolutely woeful beyond belief, its nowhere near PL standard and what we're seeing now was coming for years with this squad. Can a few signings turn things around? I hope so but we'll still be going into some of those fixtures with the likes of Shelvey, Ritchie, Lascelles etc from our Championship team playing.  We really need a draw tonight. 

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33 minutes ago, Decky said:

I don't think we can do enough in January to turn this team from 1 win in 20 to 8 in 18. The team is so monumentally poor all over the pitch, we'd need a CB and two CMs to have half a chance imo. Our midfield and defence is absolutely woeful beyond belief, its nowhere near PL standard and what we're seeing now was coming for years with this squad. Can a few signings turn things around? I hope so but we'll still be going into some of those fixtures with the likes of Shelvey, Ritchie, Lascelles etc from our Championship team playing.  We really need a draw tonight. 

Eddie doesn't need to do that at all (text in bold).  All he has to do is get more points than Watford, Burnley and Norwich.   If they only win 3 more games each then Eddie has to win 4, its that simple.   This 40 point safety target is not relevant this season due to the poor form of the bottom 4.

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All the people saying we 'only' need 6 wins, or we need 8 wins, how likely is it given that we've won 1 from 20 (or 22 inc cups)?

 

Norwich have put themselves in pole position now, 4 wins from 22, and i'd say its just as likely, or more likely they'll win 4 from their last 16, than us winning 6 from 18.

 

Norwich have home games against Palace, Brentford, Burnley, Newcastle, and away matches at Southampton, Wolves, Villa, Brighton and Leeds -  and one things for sure , they haven't given up.

 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Karjala said:

All the people saying we 'only' need 6 wins, or we need 8 wins, how likely is it given that we've won 1 from 20 (or 22 inc cups)?

 

Norwich have put themselves in pole position now, 4 wins from 22, and i'd say its just as likely, or more likely they'll win 4 from their last 16, than us winning 6 from 18.

 

Norwich have home games against Palace, Brentford, Burnley, Newcastle, and away matches at Southampton, Wolves, Villa, Brighton and Leeds -  and one things for sure , they haven't given up.

 

 

 

 


If we can’t finish above Norwich then you don’t deserve to stay up. There are no excuses or reasons now. There would have been more than enough games and a transfer window to ensure we finish above three teams. 

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47 minutes ago, Karjala said:

All the people saying we 'only' need 6 wins, or we need 8 wins, how likely is it given that we've won 1 from 20 (or 22 inc cups)?

 

Norwich have put themselves in pole position now, 4 wins from 22, and i'd say its just as likely, or more likely they'll win 4 from their last 16, than us winning 6 from 18.

 

Norwich have home games against Palace, Brentford, Burnley, Newcastle, and away matches at Southampton, Wolves, Villa, Brighton and Leeds -  and one things for sure , they haven't given up.

 

 

 

 

We need to finish above the 3rd bottom team. No more no less. Don't even need more points then them, don't need a certain number of wins, goals, clean sheets or even points.

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It's amazing we're even still in with a chance tbh.  If we assume Burnley win all their games in hand then we're 5 points behind them.  If we can't make up 5 points on Burnley in 18 games then we deserve to go down.

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44 minutes ago, nufcjb said:

Truly feel we are the worst team in the league. Absolutely hopeless.


I watched Watford last night and Norwich to a degree and both looked shite , yet we are worse , why? It’s criminal, all the hallmarks of the Shearer lead side that went down 

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That side would never have went down under normal circumstances. We'd Joe Kinnear for most of the season then Shearer with absolutely no experience. Howe would have easily kept that squad up. This team is a whole new level, its probably our worst ever top flight squad. 

 

 

Edited by Decky

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The numbers don't lie, this is our worst squad we've ever had, still using players we signed to get us out of the Championship.

 

1 win in 20

Worst defence in a PL calendar year in history

3pts away from home in 9 games

home loss to Cambridge

 

The 2 seasons Rafa was here we stayed up basically on our defensive record (conceding 47 and 48) - this season we've already shipped 43 in 20.

Bruce's first season was pretty much saved by defenders scoring

Bruce's second season was saved by Willock signing and going on a record scoring run (we were 17th 3pts above the drop before he started)

 

We somehow need another Willock to get us 8 goals between now and the end of the season. Wood? Lingard?

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20 minutes ago, Karjala said:

We somehow need another Willock to get us 8 goals between now and the end of the season. Wood? Lingard?

 

Understat says we have zero goals from 5 xG when leading by a single goal. 50 odd shots. The failure to convert them is why we've lost so many points.

 

 

 

 

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