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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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Bit of pressure taken off tomorrow, not sure if that's a good thing or not. 

 

I think we'll be okay now, like, injuries permitting. Over the last 10 games our form is 12th best in the league, and the level of improvement under Howe is only increasing by the match. Just can't see the three teams beneath us keeping pace. 

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3 minutes ago, Andy said:

Bit of pressure taken off tomorrow, not sure if that's a good thing or not. 

 

I think we'll be okay now, like, injuries permitting. Over the last 10 games our form is 12th best in the league, and the level of improvement under Howe is only increasing by the match. Just can't see the three teams beneath us keeping pace. 


*could* mean he thinks it’s ok to start Bruno and rest Trippier. 

 

 

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Down to a 3 after another day that was almost perfect for us results-wise. No bounce for Hodgson, Norwich being found out again, other teams getting dragged in and Brentford/Palace both in free fall.

 

Win tomorrow and it’s a 2, lose and it’s back up to a 4.

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I think it's crazy how anyone can be anything below a 5. We are improving but tomorrow is a seriously tough game. Then come West Ham.

 

We need to be on 30 points by the time we have played Palace at the end of March, because the majority of the remaining games after that are brutal.

 

Still a 7 for me, despite how results have gone this week.

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I think it’s crazier that someone could think we’ve got a 70% chance of going down, to be honest. The bookies have us at 29% implied probability of relegation tonight (5/2), so much, much nearer a 3 than a 7.

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9 minutes ago, Wandy said:

I think it's crazy how anyone can be anything below a 5. We are improving but tomorrow is a seriously tough game. Then come West Ham.

 

We need to be on 30 points by the time we have played Palace at the end of March, because the majority of the remaining games after that are brutal.

 

Still a 7 for me, despite how results have gone this week.

 

I think we're more likely to stay up than go down. So that means its under 5.

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16 minutes ago, Wandy said:

I think it's crazy how anyone can be anything below a 5. We are improving but tomorrow is a seriously tough game. Then come West Ham.

 

We need to be on 30 points by the time we have played Palace at the end of March, because the majority of the remaining games after that are brutal.

 

Still a 7 for me, despite how results have gone this week.


What would you rate out of 10 for the current bottom 3 clubs? I doubt you’d have any of them 5 or under, so can’t be surprised at Newcastle being 5 maximum?

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Just now, Optimistic Nut said:


What would you rate out of 10 for the current bottom 3 clubs? I doubt you’d have any of them 5 or under, so can’t be surprised at Newcastle being 5 maximum?

 

Currently I'd say Burnley are an 8, Watford a 6, Norwich a 5 and us below 5, below 3 or 4 if we win tomorrow.

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3 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

 

You think there's a 60% chance we'll go down?

I’m a pessimist right now, I’ve been here twice before… our latter fixtures are horrendous!

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Just now, HTT II said:

I’m a pessimist right now, I’ve been here twice before… our latter fixtures are horrendous!

 

Last two times the club was largely fractured. Fractured for more or less the whole of 08-09, all of 15-16 bar the final 10 games. Our current fixtures up to the next international break are decent, plus we still have to play Everton, Norwich and Burnley to play again. Also, if we continue on Howe's current PPG rate, we'll finish on 36 points which may be enough.

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I don't think Burnley will catch us, the gap is 4 points and they've only won 1 all season. They've got 2 games in hand but I'm not sure who they're going to beat in order to catch us. 

 

Watford look awful, have played a game more and are already 3 points behind. They'll not pass us. 

 

Norwich are the only one in slightly worried about. They're a point behind, 2 if you factor in their awful gd, have played 2 games more than us and only scored 14 goals in 24 but they look like they're making a bit of a fist of it. I just don't think they'll get 2 more points than us in 2 games fewer. 

 

A win tomorrow almost certainly sorts us out and puts clear space between the bottom 3. We're not there yet but I reckon I'm about a 2.5 right now

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58 minutes ago, Wandy said:

I think it's crazy how anyone can be anything below a 5. We are improving but tomorrow is a seriously tough game. Then come West Ham.

 

We need to be on 30 points by the time we have played Palace at the end of March, because the majority of the remaining games after that are brutal.

 

Still a 7 for me, despite how results have gone this week.

 

Crazy to think there's less than a 50% chance :lol: Yes, there's a fair chance we go down, but 70%...That's just totally irrational, look at the table. There's a right load of masturbational pessimism in here sometimes. 

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44 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:


What would you rate out of 10 for the current bottom 3 clubs? I doubt you’d have any of them 5 or under, so can’t be surprised at Newcastle being 5 maximum?

 

Think they are all on a 7, like us, to be honest. I just think its impossible to say who will drop at the moment. One other team will definitely get dragged into it though over the next few weeks. At the moment that looks to be Brentford.

 

People seem to be basing their confidence on us keeping all of our key players fit but that is impossible to predict too. 

 

If we win tomorrow though I will definitely come down to a 6, maybe even a 5.

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2 minutes ago, Wandy said:

 

Think they are all on a 7, like us, to be honest. I just think its impossible to say who will drop at the moment. One other team will definitely get dragged into it though over the next few weeks. At the moment that looks to be Brentford.

 

People seem to be basing their confidence on us keeping all of our key players fit but that is impossible to predict too. 

 

If we win tomorrow though I will definitely come down to a 6, maybe even a 5.

 

You know only three teams go down right? Confidence is based on the fact we're not in the relegation zone, we've played fewer games than two of them (and the one that has games on us has won once all season), our actual form under Howe has not been relegation form, and our form under Howe is also significantly better than teams above us in terrible form (Brentford, Palace.)  We might go down, but the idea that it's more likely than not that we finish in the bottom three is not based on anything in the table or on the pitch.

 

Soz like but I get too wound up by this active wallowing. :lol:

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The last time I posted in here, I said I wasn't too confident but if we pulled it off it would be one hell of a ride. I'm sticking with that and strapping myself in. [emoji38]

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1 minute ago, Inferior Acuña said:

 

You know only three teams go down right? Confidence is based on the fact we're not in the relegation zone, we've played fewer games than two of them (and the one that has games on us has won once all season), our actual form under Howe has not been relegation form, and our form under Howe is also significantly better than teams above us in terrible form (Brentford, Palace.)  We might go down, but the idea that it's more likely than not that we finish in the bottom three is not based on anything in the table or on the pitch.

 

Soz like but I get too wound up by this active wallowing. :lol:

 

I just think that you cant pick a survivor from the four teams yet. I'm not getting carried away by the last two games. Yes, we now have a bit of momentum but I guarantee that a defeat tomorrow will result in a lot of posters giving a score over 5. As it happens though, I will stay on a 7 if we do lose.

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