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Other games (2024/25)


simonsays

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9 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:


this is an area where I know I’m an old cunt.

 

why would you want to understand a match by stats? Surely it’s entertainment that you live in the moment and the eye test is all you need for whether something is deserved or not?

 

as I say, I know I’m basically a dinosaur when it comes to appreciating the general use of stats at this level in football. Surely shots on or off target is enough?

Wait until we get to expected cards, expected corners, expected fouls.

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1 minute ago, toon25 said:

We're on a wing and a prayer to beat City in the cup, like. They look totally on it 

We haven't beaten them recently, to give them added motivation...

 

Oh goddammit!

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10 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

It usually is a negative trait though. If you keep winning games with wonder goals and by your opponent missing sitters, it usually means you are not going to win those games for long, like that Pardew season.

 

Like the first half in this match, someone says what is Pep doing, Man City are losing to Man United at home. Or praising Ten Hag for getting it right. I'm more than happy to say that xG was 2.70 vs 0.19 and Pep more than likely got it right but was on the wrong side of variance.

 

I'm not sure it is. If you've got Alan Shearer or Ronaldo up front you can probably win games consistently with less than 2xG. If your forwards are shit, you can probably fail to win games consistently with more than 2xG. 

 

I'm not sure if the model has changed in recent years, but it used to be the case that 1xG for Messi would be the same as 1xG for Almiron, this is obviously a big flaw. 

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3 minutes ago, toon25 said:

We're on a wing and a prayer to beat City in the cup, like. They look totally on it 

Not even gonna’ bother with it, we went out at Blackburn after that draw.

 

 

Edited by Joelinton7

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7 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

What if you didn't watch the match and want to have some context on the result? 

 


if you didn’t watch the match no amount of numbers will help you understand in any meaningful sense how it played out, imo

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1 minute ago, Nucasol said:

Tourist central in the City areas. Top brass rubbing their hands at getting rid of the pesky legacy fans.


Half and half scarves in a derby.

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3 minutes ago, Sima said:


Half and half scarves in a derby.

Nowt wrong with them, for example us and the mackems, the black from ours and the white from theirs.

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8 minutes ago, Andy said:

 

I'm not sure it is. If you've got Alan Shearer or Ronaldo up front you can probably win games consistently with less than 2xG. If your forwards are shit, you can probably fail to win games consistently with more than 2xG. 

 

I'm not sure if the model has changed in recent years, but it used to be the case that 1xG for Messi would be the same as 1xG for Almiron, this is obviously a big flaw. 

 

It certainly matters but I don't think it's that massive. I just randomly looked at Haaland (good finisher) and Sterling (poor finisher) from Understat. Sterling has scored 110 from 121.06 xG so underperforming by 11 since 2014 in the PL, roughly a goal per season. Haaland since 2019 has 115 goals from 103.45 xG in Bundesliga and PL, so overperforming by roughly two goals a season.

 

I know Understat uses very basic xG data but it's still a class site considering it's free.

 

 

Edited by Pata

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1 minute ago, Yorkie said:

W17 D2 L0 (in all competitions) since Villa beat them in early December. City being City. 

Well we all knew it was coming. Like every other year.

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16 minutes ago, OpenC said:

 

I think people hate it because it's contrary to what a lot of people love about football - like Andy says, the wonder strike, the Gerrard slip, the unbelievable save.  To try and reduce football to 'they should statistically have scored this many goals' is anathema to a lot of fans.  There aren't that many metrics presented to fans during a game which are actually of any real value imo - you can count corners all you like but if they're all being floated to Mike Williamson you'd be better not having them

Both things can be true: you can enjoy football for everything that cannot be quantified and also enjoy what can be in pursuit of some truth. People don't like xG because it is the most popular latent statistic, one which has to be approximated via methods that are not understood.   

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11 minutes ago, toon25 said:

We're on a wing and a prayer to beat City in the cup, like. They look totally on it 

 

Already assumed we are out of the cup so no real dread felt on that account tbh. At full strength I know we can compete with them, but even then they are leagues ahead man for man.

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