The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Champions League

[ramirez]

Football rankings has us lowest ranked side on projections, ironically highlights that going deep in Europa wouldn’t be bad for coefficient.  It feels a very distant second nowadays though. 

[AngelofTheFourth]

3 minutes ago, ramirez said:

Football rankings has us lowest ranked side on projections, ironically highlights that going deep in Europa wouldn’t be bad for coefficient.  It feels a very distant second nowadays though. 

A problem is that 4 English teams are in pot 1 who we cant play against and we are left with 5 really strong teams. 

[ramirez]

Just now, AngelofTheFourth said:

A problem is that 4 English teams are in pot 1 who we cant play against and we are left with 5 really strong teams. 

Yeah I’ve no real problems with that as should be more balanced on the whole next season. We would be the team from pot four who teams would want to avoid. 

[SteV]

3 minutes ago, ramirez said:

Football rankings has us lowest ranked side on projections, ironically highlights that going deep in Europa wouldn’t be bad for coefficient.  It feels a very distant second nowadays though. 

Tbh, I think coefficients are less important in the new version. 
 

Having a low coefficient previously would seemingly inevitably lead to getting a group that was very difficult to qualify out of. 
 

Now, whilst you still likely get two (maybe three) very difficult games, you also likely get 2-4 (at least) that are eminently winnable, so you probably have a better chance of qualifying regardless of how low your coefficient is.

[Ginola14]

it's sad the way things are going but an English side winning a European trophy nowadays is not the special achievement it used to be 

 

all the money is now in the PL, the likes of West Ham and Bournemouth spend way more on transfers/wages than 95% of clubs in the Spanish, Italian, German, French and Portuguese leagues

 

and obviously dwarf the smaller leagues in spending 

 

the gap between the PL and Europe will only continue to grow and grow until English clubs are completely dominant 

 

sure we'd expect to win the Conference and be amongst the favourites for the EL

 

if Spurs win the EL the best team they'll have faced will be MU, and we all know how shite they are relative to almost every other PL side 

 

all English finals are also shite 

 

that said I'd still happily celebrate us winning any European trophy

 

 

 

 

Edited May 8 by Ginola14

[PRL]

Let’s make sure we take a moment and watch those replays again. We won a fucking trophy. Fuck the UCL, fuck PSR, fuck what percentage of revenue we spend on wages. 
 

this year will never be repeated and all of us that were here to see it; we are the luckiest and righteous of all of them. 

[Yorkie]

The Premier League is 17 teams with three EFL guests so, when you put it like that, more than a third of the division qualifies for the Champions League now. 

[nufcjb]

Absolutely gutting for the team that finishes 6th to have to play the Europa League anthem at their ground next season while the Champions League anthem will be played at Old Trafford or the London Yankees Stadium.

 

 

Edited May 9 by nufcjb

[et tu brute]

4 hours ago, Erikse said:

Would be nice if Bournemouth did something against Villa. They have Man Utd and Spurs after that. Both games close to the final, one right before and the other right after. I expect no help from those 2 teams. Good thing our GD is superior. 69p will do.

Luckily they are still playing for 8th place and conference league qualification (be first time for European football so a big achievement). Their form has also picked up a little, so I can see Villa dropping points. Villa's game against Man U is also after the final, so with it being their last game and at Old Trafford, I wouldn't expect many changes, especially if they are in danger of finishing 17th still. If Villa win all three, then we need to win two games.

 

 

Edited May 9 by et tu brute

[Sibierski]

7 hours ago, AngelofTheFourth said:

A problem is that 4 English teams are in pot 1 who we cant play against and we are left with 5 really strong teams. 

We can play against one, rules change when there’s 6. So unless Forest don’t qualify, it’s highly likely we would get an English side in one of the group games.

[JigsawGoesToPieces]

If English teams win the CL & EL and Palace win thr FA Cup there could be 11 teams in Europe

 

Champions League: 1-5, UCL winners, UEL winners
Europa League: 6, FA Cup winners, UCoL winners
Conference League: Carabao Cup winners

[JigsawGoesToPieces]

From Dale Johnson ESPN

This is like the earlier scenario relating to eighth and the Europa League, the difference being the European titleholder finishes in the first place outside the European positions.

For this to happen a European title winner would need to finish eighth. This cannot happen this season.

So, the Conference League winners finish in eighth place -- one below the Conference League spot. Chelsea play in the Europa League as Conference League winners, and the Premier League has eight teams in Europe.

Champions League: 1-4
Europa League: 5, 6, UCoL winners (8)
Conference League: 7

Now the EPS is applied with fifth in the UCL, and as this creates the plus-1 in all scenarios there are now nine teams in Europe. The European places drop down one, but as Chelsea already have a place in the Europa League, the Conference League spot "jumps" over them and goes to ninth.

Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, 7, UCoL winners (8)
Conference League: 9

The same EPS logic can be applied to push the allocation down two or three places in the league.

It requires multiple European titleholders to be in consecutive places outside the domestic spots, to create two or three "jumps."

This is the effect of two teams winning European titles and finishing eighth and ninth -- 10th gets the Conference League spot after the EPS is applied.

Champions League: 1-5, UEL winners (9)
Europa League: 6, 7, UCoL winners (8)
Conference League: 10

Add in the UCL winners finishing in a consecutive place, and 11th gets the Conference League.

Champions League: 1-5, UCL winners (8), UEL winners (10)
Europa League: 6, 7, UCoL winners (9)
Conference League: 11

 

 

 

Edited May 9 by JigsawGoesToPieces

[Mazzy]

1 hour ago, Sibierski said:

We can play against one, rules change when there’s 6. So unless Forest don’t qualify, it’s highly likely we would get an English side in one of the group games.

 

Let's fucking hope it's Man Utd or Spurs. 

[The College Dropout]

9 hours ago, Erikse said:

Would be nice if Bournemouth did something against Villa. They have Man Utd and Spurs after that. Both games close to the final, one right before and the other right after. I expect no help from those 2 teams. Good thing our GD is superior. 69p will do.

Bournemouth has been the game they will most likely drop points in for some time anyway.  
 

The draw at the Amex was a good one imo.  We always needed to beat Evertonand Chelsea but that draw is a safeguard against Villa. 

[SteV]

2 hours ago, Sibierski said:

We can play against one, rules change when there’s 6. So unless Forest don’t qualify, it’s highly likely we would get an English side in one of the group games.

Have you got a link to this specific rule? Assume the same would apply to Arsenal if they’re in Pot 2?

 

edit - found it, although I’m not sure how clear this actually makes things?

 

 

 

Edited May 9 by SteV

[Erikse]

2 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

Bournemouth has been the game they will most likely drop points in for some time anyway.  
 

The draw at the Amex was a good one imo.  We always needed to beat Evertonand Chelsea but that draw is a safeguard against Villa. 

 

I agree, but Man Utd has proven to be a difficult team to beat for the top teams (except from us). I had some hopes if they didn't get to the final. It's wild to think about how many points 6th and especially 7th will get this season compared to other seasons.

 

 

Edited May 9 by Erikse

[Benwell Lad]

Don't know if it's a rational concern, or just paranoia as a consequence of reading this thread too much, but I think, as organisations, Man Utd and Spurs would do anything they can to stall the progress of Newcastle's rise to the top. We will be seen as much more of a threat to their place at the top table than Villa and Forest would.

[Vaj]

Bournemouth vs Villa game is huge for us. If Bournemouth can beat them then we should really finish above Villa regardless of the Chelsea game outcome. 

[The College Dropout]

59 minutes ago, Erikse said:

 

I agree, but Man Utd has proven to be a difficult team to beat for the top teams (except from us). I had some hopes if they didn't get to the final. It's wild to think about how many points 6th and especially 7th will get this season compared to other seasons.

 

 

 

I didn't. Was always going to be a bonus.

 

Liverpool winning the league and a good win at Fulham tilted my perspective on Chelsea. They've got a good chance of making it, I expected them to finish 6th/7th.

 

We should beat them. But i expect they will still be in the race come GW38 with a win probably enough to secure it.

20 minutes ago, Vaj said:

Bournemouth vs Villa game is huge for us. If Bournemouth can beat them then we should really finish above Villa regardless of the Chelsea game outcome. 

We need to beat Chelsea man.

 

Not beating Chelsea opens the gates for a GW38 draw that would see both Forest & Chelsea qualify, which we need to avoid. 

[Paully]

I can smell it lads 

 

Bournemouth 2-1 Villa 

NUFC 2-0 Chelsea 

Forest 1-1 Leicester 

 

 

[Vaj]

9 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

I didn't. Was always going to be a bonus.

 

Liverpool winning the league and a good win at Fulham tilted my perspective on Chelsea. They've got a good chance of making it, I expected them to finish 6th/7th.

 

We should beat them. But i expect they will still be in the race come GW38 with a win probably enough to secure it.

We need to beat Chelsea man.

 

Not beating Chelsea opens the gates for a GW38 draw that would see both Forest & Chelsea qualify, which we need to avoid. 

I agree that beating Chelsea is huge in terms of keeping it in our hands. However, if we do fail to win, we can still make it to where we need to be so can still hope that other teams slip up. Doesn't matter how we get there, as long as we do. 

[The College Dropout]

2 minutes ago, Vaj said:

I agree that beating Chelsea is huge in terms of keeping it in our hands. However, if we do fail to win, we can still make it to where we need to be so can still hope that other teams slip up. Doesn't matter how we get there, as long as we do. 

The biggest threat would be a Forest-Chelsea draw that see's them both qualify with 68-69 points on the last day.

[Vaj]

54 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

The biggest threat would be a Forest-Chelsea draw that see's them both qualify with 68-69 points on the last day.

Again I do agree but there is then also the possibility of Forest drawing at West Ham and then needing to win the final game to finish above us if we went on to beat Everton. Lots of different scenarios can play out. Hopefully we do our job anyway but it is far from over if we only draw on Sunday.

[The College Dropout]

13 minutes ago, Vaj said:

Again I do agree but there is then also the possibility of Forest drawing at West Ham and then needing to win the final game to finish above us if we went on to beat Everton. Lots of different scenarios can play out. Hopefully we do our job anyway but it is far from over if we only draw on Sunday.

We'll have to see how the other results go. But we have the hardest GW37 fixture by a distance and we play last from the bunch. I expect 7th place will have 64 points minimum by 4pm of GW37 Saturday. That's massive pressure on us, if we are also on 64 points.

 

For me it's been clear what we need to do to secure the CL from since the League Cup final. We've dropped points when I expected we might and we've won every game we needed to win. Chelsea & Villa have picked up the points they should've got in that time too so there's no massive margin for error. I thought we needed to beat Chelsea then and I've never changed my mind. I thought it might be the death knell for Chelsea, while it won't be that - it will be a hammer blow.

 

You're right it's not over if we don't beat them. But I can't stand that mentality.

 

It's a must-win. Always has been for me. I want the players thinking the same thing and I'm sure they will. I think we are readying Big Joe for precisely that reason. 

[The College Dropout]

https://theanalyst.com/2025/05/champions-league-qualification-race-man-city-newcastle-chelsea-nottingham-forest-aston-villa

"To add a further worry, one of their most important players could be missing for these two games, as Joelinton is still struggling with a knee injury.

When he missed a three-game sequence against Man City, Forest and Liverpool back in February, Newcastle conceded nine goals – 20% of their total for the whole season."