The Fountain Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 10 hours ago, mosstef said: I think we will get at least 7 points from our away games against Leicester, Villa, Brighton and Arsenal. It's our home form I'm worried about. If we get 7 away pints then 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat at home will be enough. As long as the defeat isn't Chelsea Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skeletor Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 38 minutes ago, MagPar said: I keep thinking that Forest will drop out of the race but they just keep on going so it's probably going to go down to the wire. Yeah I'd say its too late for them to drop out now. But I keep looking at their team on paper and I can't see them sustaining this next season without them somehow circumventing PSR and going on a mad spending spree. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyCisse Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Looking at the fixtures I expect 15 as a minimum for points. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elma Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 This weekend is huge for us. Brighton, Man City and Chelsea are all away in derby games. Villa and Forest playing each other and Fulham have Liverpool. The following weekend they are all at home to teams 12th or lower (Villa are away but it's Southampton) while we're at home to Man U, so we need to make hay while the sun shines. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 3 minutes ago, Elma said: This weekend is huge for us. Brighton, Man City and Chelsea are all away in derby games. Villa and Forest playing each other and Fulham have Liverpool. The following weekend they are all at home to teams 12th or lower (Villa are away but it's Southampton) while we're at home to Man U, so we need to make hay while the sun shines. So we're all at home to teams 12th or lower. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elma Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Just now, Kid Icarus said: So we're all at home to teams 12th or lower. Very true. 😂 For what it's worth I wasn't suggesting we have it tough next week either. Just that this is a weekend we could steal a march. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatwax Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 I think that we arguably have the tougher fixtures remaining out of us, Chelsea, Forest and City. It’s all opinion, but it’ll certainly be close. 3rd-5th is between us 4 teams currently and 3rd already has a pretty good buffer. Chelsea would be the most likely to slip away out of those 3. Could have done with them losing yesterday to be honest. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elma Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 minute ago, Fatwax said: I think that we arguably have the tougher fixtures remaining out of us, Chelsea, Forest and City. It’s all opinion, but it’ll certainly be close. 3rd-5th is between us 4 teams currently and 3rd already has a pretty good buffer. Chelsea would be the most likely to slip away out of those 3. Could have done with them losing yesterday to be honest. Agree that we could have done with them dropping points yesterday, but they still aren't in great form from what I've seen and they technically do have the most difficult run-in of the teams mentioned when you compare the league position and PPG that their remaining opponents have. Plus, they've still to come to St James'. Different techniques used by these two, but similar outcomes - I suspect that unless we have a phenomenally good run-in then Forest and Man City will be difficult to overhaul. https://theanalyst.com/2025/03/premier-league-fixture-difficulty-last-nine-games https://www.premierleague.com/news/4272511 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSG Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Sky are absolutely gagging for a final day CL shootout since everything else is done and dusted. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingArthur Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 18 minutes ago, Fatwax said: I think that we arguably have the tougher fixtures remaining out of us, Chelsea, Forest and City. It’s all opinion, but it’ll certainly be close. 3rd-5th is between us 4 teams currently and 3rd already has a pretty good buffer. Chelsea would be the most likely to slip away out of those 3. Could have done with them losing yesterday to be honest. I think Forest's style suits them playing on the counter against bigger teams. Can see them dropping points against mid table and lower teams. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatwax Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 9 minutes ago, KingArthur said: I think Forest's style suits them playing on the counter against bigger teams. Can see them dropping points against mid table and lower teams. I'd have to have a look - have they dropped many points against these kind of teams so far? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatwax Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 20 minutes ago, Elma said: Agree that we could have done with them dropping points yesterday, but they still aren't in great form from what I've seen and they technically do have the most difficult run-in of the teams mentioned when you compare the league position and PPG that their remaining opponents have. Plus, they've still to come to St James'. Different techniques used by these two, but similar outcomes - I suspect that unless we have a phenomenally good run-in then Forest and Man City will be difficult to overhaul. https://theanalyst.com/2025/03/premier-league-fixture-difficulty-last-nine-games https://www.premierleague.com/news/4272511 Aye, I'm definitely going more on opinion and a quick scroll of the fixture list than anything else. I do have their great run at the end of last year's league that got them out of the mire in my mind. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Its quarter of the season to go, you don't need the analysis to know that there really isn't anything in the fixture difficulty overall (not withstanding the complete brain fart results that happen towards the end of each season). In our favour is that we are front loading a nice run of winnable games that 'should' put us in the top 4 at the end of them and a maximum of 1 point behind Forest, but if we do our job more likely we'll be in third after the Ipswich game. Our last 4 are trickier and you wouldn't want to be in 6th going into them, but if we are defending a position then you'd take them. The last barrier facing Forest is what happens if they do get pulled back over the next couple of games, does mental fatigue kick in or do they go again? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 13 hours ago, Kid Icarus said: So we're all at home to teams 12th or lower. They are playing a bit better now tbh. Still look a bit powder puff, but they have good footballers and they can string some nice stuff together. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkie Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 I'm confident we can get 5th because just recently we're either playing well and winning (Liverpool) or playing average and finding a way (Brighton, West Ham, Brentford - yeah fuck off I'm counting Brighton). That's a good place to be in. However, I'm also certain that the random vibes of the whole season will continue to the very end. E.g. Brighton being on an exceptional run and then getting twatted 3-0 at home (just one example of many cases of teams suddenly hitting the off-button). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingArthur Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 hour ago, Fatwax said: I'd have to have a look - have they dropped many points against these kind of teams so far? Well, they are 3rd so not much But I would say we need to win Chelsea and ManU at home, and not lose against Villa. Other games should be fine. Draw against Arsenal and even that one defeat is not a catastrophe. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramirez Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 2 hours ago, NSG said: Sky are absolutely gagging for a final day CL shootout since everything else is done and dusted. Forest play Chelsea on the last day as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyCisse Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 9 minutes ago, ramirez said: Forest play Chelsea on the last day as well. Imagine Forest claiming that last spot over Chelsea or helping us out by beating them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken Dancer Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 I actually don't think we will get 7 away from home, but I think we should be getting 15 at home. Realistically we won't win all 5 at home and will probably win more than 1 away, but we do have tough games for sure. If Villa get it then I'd have to concede fair play, being deep in Europe and an FA Cup semi is some distraction. Not worried about Brighton either, though saying that I can't remember us ever playing well at the Amex. I'm assuming Forest are done, so then that leaves us, City, Chelsea & Villa for the final 2 spots. I'm glad we've won the cup as I'm completely relaxed (as opposed to 22/23) about it all. We've guaranteed Europe and we've won a cup. We'd have all shook on that back in August. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 (edited) Beat Leicester, Man Utd & Palace and it buys us a defeat at Villa I reckon. Think if we win 6 we've done it. If we win 6 out of 9, Villa would need to win 7 out of 8 and Chelsea 6/7 out of 8 to beat us. If they did that, hats off to them. Edited April 4 by Optimistic Nut Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUPERTOON Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Desperately want us to get champions league, but I’d equally love a crack at the Europa. Big chance to win that, especially with no champions leagues sides dropping into it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 We don't have particularly tough games. Brighton, Arsenal, Villa all away are hard. The other 6 we should win all of them. Any less than 15 from those and we don't deserve CL. We'll need 2-3 points from those 3 tough away games and an easier home game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 38 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said: Beat Leicester, Man Utd & Palace and it buys us a defeat at Villa I reckon. Think if we win 6 we've done it. If we win 6 out of 9, Villa would need to win 7 out of 8 and Chelsea 6/7 out of 8 to beat us. If they did that, hats off to them. Unless we get a couple of huge wins (or do Chelsea by 3) then Chelsea would be 5 and a draw if we win 6 with GD but you also to factor that City would also need to win 6/8 (or 5 wins, 2 draws) if we win 6. I just don't see all of us, City and Chelsea winning 6 so its who slips up Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 We can win 6 out of 9. If one of those 6 is against Chelsea, Chelsea will need to win 5 and draw another out of 7. They won’t do that. I think we’ll do it. We have some margin for error. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketsbaia Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Need around 16 points from 9 matches... very doable. We've not drawn in 22 matches either (depending on how you view the Brighton cup game!) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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