The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[The College Dropout]

30 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

If we put up 70-75 points we'll there and there abouts most seasons, regardless of how other teams are doing.

Arsenal haven’t managed that for a decade. It’s extremely difficult. 
 

Btw Arsenal gambled with FFP in the summer after spending for a good few years now.  

[The College Dropout]

4 minutes ago, Geordie Ahmed said:

Why on earth would we be much further away?

Liverpool and Chelsea likely to be better.  

All of the top 6 can spend more than we can within FFP.  We have to be spend better than them, better coached than them etc. all while starting from a lower base.  Nearly all the top 6 have generational talents in their youth strip too. 

Weve had a lot of fun players playing to the limit of their abilities. A more talented squad playing par could easily get less points than we had after 19 games (38 points)

 

 

[TRon]

1 hour ago, Vinny Green Balls said:

You seriously think that any sane club would want that headache and uncertainty? If the hammer doesn't come down on Man City, I guarantee that they would find a reason to bring it down on Newcastle if they breached the rules.

 

I really don't know how some have failed to grasp this point even after the fight we went through to get here. If I'm not wrong, pretty sure Man City were one of the clubs who abstained from voting for the closed shop ESL. Clubs like Man U, Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool don't want competition, they feel entitled to rule forever on the back of a couple of recent decades of success. These fuckers didn't even want relegation or promotion involved, that's how pernicious their intent was.

[Geordie Ahmed]

15 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Liverpool and Chelsea likely to be better.  

All of the top 6 can spend more than we can within FFP.  We have to be spend better than them, better coached than them etc. all while starting from a lower base.  Nearly all the top 6 have generational talents in their youth strip too. 

Weve had a lot of fun players playing to the limit of their abilities. A more talented squad playing par could easily get less points than we had after 19 games (38 points)

 

 

Don't forget 2 of the top 6 will be missing out on CL so they will also have the restrictions that we will have 

 

I just think people are being doom and gloom merchants 

 

Yes, top 4 this season would be immense but it isn't a must 

[The College Dropout]

32 minutes ago, Geordie Ahmed said:

Don't forget 2 of the top 6 will be missing out on CL so they will also have the restrictions that we will have 

 

I just think people are being doom and gloom merchants 

 

Yes, top 4 this season would be immense but it isn't a must 

No they won’t. 
 

They still have the increased sponsorships, higher gate receipts, increased hospitality, more valuable players to sell, higher reputation and bigger budgets.  
 

It’s not a must. But breaking into the top 4 is extremely difficult.  
 

The difference between us and say Leicester when they were challenging - is that we should be able to keep our best players and still strengthen.  But that would mean going up tight against FFP at some point. I get the logic of gambling from a stronger position of squad. As in the first time Leicester finished 5th or like when Arsenal finished 5th last season, going again to get 4th. This squad is genuinely not top 6 quality. 

[Kid Icarus]

I can't wrap my head around how anyone watching us create chance after chance, hit the bar twice, miss 2 one-on-ones, all with 10 men, and where finishing is the obvious issue say to themselves "I just don't see where the goals are coming from"

 

Of course you can see where they're coming from, you just aren't seeing the goals where they should be. Don't get me wrong, our finishing is a problem that needs fixing, but I'd be far more worried if we weren't even creating chances.

 

For me it bodes well for the future, imagine those chances falling to better players. Imagine the chances that fell to Almiron, Burn, ASM, and Wilson falling to the next Mahrez, Terry, Neymar, and Aguero. 

 

Probably an exaggeration but you get the point - that the outcome of matches like that change.

[The College Dropout]

We’ve scored, what? 2 goals in the last 5?

Not a single good defence between them. 

[Kid Icarus]

We also beat Brentford 5-1 and Villa 4-0 in matches that didn't at all feel like that. Football's weird like that, but we obviously need to work on our finishing. Wilson especially is letting the side down and I say that as someone who loves him. If he was doing as expected there'd be less worry and Gordon would already have 2 assists to his name at Newcastle. Dan Burn should also be put into a summer camp where every single activity is centred around attacking headers.

[The Prophet]

Wilson's drop off is bizarre. Not seen him had a run like this in his time here, he just doesn't look confident in front of goal.

[Ronaldo]

17 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

We’ve scored, what? 2 goals in the last 5?

Not a single good defence between them. 

3 goals in our last 7. Since dicking Southampton 3 1/2 months ago we’ve only scored more than one on one occasion. I’d love to think Howe will work on it and find the answer - if anyone can it’s possibly him - but realistically he has to rely on Wilson who is basically a 1 in 3 striker and seldom fully fit for long. 

[r0cafella]

KI, I think a lot of people’s concerns are how blunt we look against defensive teams. 

[Kid Icarus]

16 minutes ago, Ronaldo said:

3 goals in our last 7. Since dicking Southampton 3 1/2 months ago we’ve only scored more than one on one occasion. I’d love to think Howe will work on it and find the answer - if anyone can it’s possibly him - but realistically he has to rely on Wilson who is basically a 1 in 3 striker and seldom fully fit for long. 

Trying to be optimistic, Wilson can be quite streaky, as can Isak looking at his record. Hopefully one of them comes out of it soon because it seems that they (including  Almiron coming out of his form) have all hit a barren spell at the same time. I'm sure you'd be much more worried if we weren't even creating the chances to miss in the first place though, I know I would. If our shit form this season ends up being a handful of draws and a loss, I'd have taken that at the start of the season.

 

It's often hard to apply context in the moment though, in a weird way I think we'd be in a better position in Fulham or Brentford's position. Howe set a rod for his own back with the first half of the season 

 

 

Edited February 19, 2023 by Kid Icarus

[Kid Icarus]

1 minute ago, r0cafella said:

KI, I think a lot of people’s concerns are how blunt we look against defensive teams. 

Both Bournemouth games and maybe Brighton away aside, I don't see it. We create so many chances.

[r0cafella]

1 minute ago, Kid Icarus said:

Trying to be optimistic, Wilson can be quite streaky, as can Isak looking at his record. Hopefully one of them comes out of it soon because it seems that they (including  Almiron coming out of his form) have all hit a barren spell at the same time. I'm sure you'd be much more worried if they weren't even creating the chances to miss in the first place though, I know I would. If our shit form this season ends up being a handful of draws and a loss, I'd have taken that at the start of the season.

 

It's often hard to apply context in the moment though, in a weird way I think we'd be in a better position in Fulham or Brentford's position. Howe set a rod for his own back with the first half of the season 

Absolutely, I’m sure things will pick up with Bruno’s return as well. He’s obviously indispensable to us.  

[toon25]

Nowhere near enough depth in the squad to finish 4th.

 

Just got to hope we stay in the hunt for 5th or 6th.

 

January was a missed opportunity.

[The Butcher]

That piss poor Jan window will probably haunt us for a couple of years. Such a shame. 

[GWN]

6 hours ago, Heron said:

We don't demand a team that wins we demand a club that tries...

 

 

Some forget seemingly 

[Coffee_Johnny]

Lots of posts about the club not investing, really being interested in too 4 this season, looking to develop and sell on players, as part of the strategy. Other implied hidden motives. They have repeatedly said, one way and another, that they are building a squad and the club in the right way. They’ll buy what we need, if that person will come, but run it like a well functioning business. They won’t just splurge or chase an arbitrary objectives/a number. We’ll try and win every game, build an ethos and sense of collective endeavour, we’ll finish where we finish. 

If we finish in Champions League spot, then expenditure in the summer will be increased as will our ‘attractiveness’ as an option. 
I still think we’ll finish top 4, by the way. But let’s just enjoy the ride. If you having seen the Man City documentary ‘Drink it in’ it is worth a watch as a reminder of their transformation. 

[Hhtoon]

I do think PIF are happy to play the long game - we would likely have overpaid in January for available players that weren't part of our future plans. It's a long term project and whilst top 4 next year would have been great, I don't think we'll be properly equipped for sustained European and domestic campaigns for another couple of seasons.

 

Bringing forward additional spend to be spread over a c.5 year period on the basis of increased revenue from one season has it's own risk. If we miss out the season after, then revenue drops back down and we'd risk falling foul of FFP.

 

Not that I care about any of that mind you, I want champs league next year 

Would still be happy with 6th though and this season has been fucking awesome so far

[Lush Vlad]

The teams are kind of stacking up behind us now. Yet despite us being on a bad run, compared to the high standards we have set. We still haven’t been overhauled. Of course Spurs can go above us later. But we’d still have a game in hand. 
 

I do see it as more of a top 6 race for the teams from 4th-10th now. But we’re not the only ones that have questions to answer. 
 

Spurs - they’ve not been particularly good and I think Bentancur is a huge loss for them. 
Fulham - over-achieving massively. Not sure they will keep it up. But they have been hanging round the top 7-8 all season, TBF to them. 
Brighton - I keep thinking they look outstanding and our biggest threat for top 4. But their form says otherwise and still seem to lack a consistent goal threat up top. 
Liverpool - players coming back from injury. But they still look horrendous at the back, awful away from

home and totally wide open. A more ruthless team kills them off last night. Somehow more encouraged about finishing above them after seeing us play them. 
Brentford - I just don’t think they are good enough to get into Europe. 
Chelsea - keep expecting them to turn it around. Yet they seem to be getting worse. Long may it continue! 
 

I think City is a write off. But after that, we have a mixture of easier fixtures and some massive home games that could define our season in regards to a European place. 

[SUPERTOON]

17 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:

The teams are kind of stacking up behind us now. Yet despite us being on a bad run, compared to the high standards we have set. We still haven’t been overhauled. Of course Spurs can go above us later. But we’d still have a game in hand. 
 

I do see it as more of a top 6 race for the teams from 4th-10th now. But we’re not the only ones that have questions to answer. 
 

Spurs - they’ve not been particularly good and I think Bentancur is a huge loss for them. 
Fulham - over-achieving massively. Not sure they will keep it up. But they have been hanging round the top 7-8 all season, TBF to them. 
Brighton - I keep thinking they look outstanding and our biggest threat for top 4. But their form says otherwise and still seem to lack a consistent goal threat up top. 
Liverpool - players coming back from injury. But they still look horrendous at the back, awful away from

home and totally wide open. A more ruthless team kills them off last night. Somehow more encouraged about finishing above them after seeing us play them. 
Brentford - I just don’t think they are good enough to get into Europe. 
Chelsea - keep expecting them to turn it around. Yet they seem to be getting worse. Long may it continue! 
 

I think City is a write off. But after that, we have a mixture of easier fixtures and some massive home games that could define our season in regards to a European place. 

Easier fixtures than Leeds, Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham ? 

[Lush Vlad]

Just now, SUPERTOON said:

Easier fixtures than Leeds, Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham ? 

No. 

[Lush Vlad]

I know we’ll lose Big Joe for a couple of games soon. But I feel like some of the options and competition for places will help us turn our form around.
 

Targett, Willock and Bruno hopefully all coming back in the next game or two. With ASM now finding a bit of form and fitness and also Gordon pushing for a start. With hopefully Wilson staying fit and his minutes being managed so he can contribute. Suddenly the squad looks a bit better. 
 

It might be the spark that we need and also help us stop becoming too predictable. 

[ExiledGeordie]

I think Liverpool might nip in a take 4th but that’s not at all me throwing the towel in. They just have a better squads and we’re relying on everyone staying fit. I do think win or lose we’ll re focus on the league. I think there’s an argument Targett coming back in to freshen our play up and an extended run in the team together for Bruno, Gordon, Isak could see us pick up again.

 

Either way it’s still been a great season and I wouldn’t be crying if we finish 5th or 6th. Be disappointing to miss 4th but the league is 38 games not 19 and you have to maintain form right the way through. I think too many were possibly assuming we’d get 4th.

[CM1961]

This season has far exceeded my expectation.  Just brillant.

But I like to monitor our top 4 opposition in like-for-like fixtures to see where we are.  If we only look at the points from those games we get :

Man U +12 points on us
Liverpool +3
Spurs -1
Chelsea -4