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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

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  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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Apologies in advance if that rule about not putting fixture lists on here still exists but to my knowledge that's no longer a thing...

 

So I've been discussing with some friends about how good our season has been, and to compare had a brief review of our 96/97 season.

 

That season this was what we finished on:

 

P38

W19

D11

L8

GF 73

GA 40

GD 33

 

By comparison, this season, to date we have the following record:

 

P24

W10

D11

L3

GF 35

GA 17

GD 18

 

Looking at our remaining fixtures from what is certainly an (overly) optimistic point of view, I think there are 9 games that should be earmarked as entirely winnable:

 

Wolves (h)              

Nottingham Forest (a)

West Ham (a)        

Brentford (a)         

Aston Villa (a)

Everton (a)

Southampton (h)             

Leeds United(a)        

Leicester City (h)

 

Doing so would see us emulate that season, if not exceed it. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think we will (for reference I see us potentially getting 24 points maximum) but even so, this has been a very admirable season thus far and can continue to be. It shows the gulf in class from the top sides compared to the rest of the division when comparing that season to this too. For example the 73 points that we obtained that season would probably see us finish 4th or 5th this season I suspect.

 

Anyways, just waffling, but think we should be incredibly pleased thus far and hopeful that we can see out a really progressive season.

 

Folk on social media seem fairly downbeat from what I've seen but based on the above there is no reason to be.

 

 

Edited by Heron

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1 hour ago, Decky said:

I'd take Conference League over nothing. We don't know what way the season is gonna go next year. We could be a bit off and sitting around 8th or 9th, or maybe the European spots stick to the top 5. CL could be our path to qualifying for the EL the season after next which could be important for our progression. 

 

 

 

Next season top 5 should be all CL spots

 

So 7th is guaranteed to be some form of Europe, with 8th highly likely 

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7 minutes ago, Heron said:

Apologies in advance if that rule about not putting fixture lists on here still exists but to my knowledge that's no longer a thing...

 

So I've been discussing with some friends about how good our season has been, and to compare had a brief review of our 96/97 season.

 

That season this was what we finished on:

 

P38

W19

D11

L8

GF 73

GA 40

GD 33

 

By comparison, this season, to date we have the following record:

 

P24

W10

D11

L3

GF 35

GA 17

GD 18

 

Looking at our remaining fixtures from what is certainly an (overly) optimistic point of view, I think there are 9 games that should be earmarked as entirely winnable:

 

Wolves (h)              

Nottingham Forest (a)

West Ham (a)        

Brentford (a)         

Aston Villa (a)

Everton (a)

Southampton (h)             

Leeds United(a)        

Leicester City (h)

 

Doing so would see us emulate that season, if not exceed it. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think we will (for reference I see us potentially getting 24 points maximum) but even so, this has been a very admirable season thus far and can continue to be. It shows the gulf in class from the top sides compared to the rest of the division when comparing that season to this too. For example the 73 points that we obtained that season would probably see us finish 4th or 5th this season I suspect.

 

Anyways, just waffling, but think we should be incredibly pleased thus far and hopeful that we can see our a really progressive season.

 

1996-97 also saw us have a dip mid season and saw us often lose Shearer and at times Ferdinand to injury. Think for one of the European games, Monaco I think, we had to start Rob Lee up front on his own. We went on a run of 1 win in 9 after beating Man Utd 5-0 (we're currently on 1 win in 8?) which saw us drop from top to 6th. Some poor results in there too, drawing at home to West Ham, drawing away at Forest who finished bottom, losing at Coventry who stayed up on the last day and losing to Arsenal at home who had 10 men for most of the game.

 

We then beat Spurs 7-1 and went on a run after Dalglish came in that took us to the new CL spot of 2nd.

 

 

Edited by HaydnNUFC

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I don't think we are as good (defence apart obviously) as the King's mob who got 5th place back in 2011/2012 with 65 points. How we could do with Cabaye/HBA/Ba and an in form Cisse. Think we might get 5th or 6th now which is still a commendable achievement. 

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The goal should be top 6. Chelsea are dung this season so with that we should take their spot in the top 6. For as good as Brighton and Fulham have been this season I wouldn't be happy to see one of them finish above us. Either 4th, 5th or best of the rest for me. 

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10 hours ago, sempuki said:

I don't think we are as good (defence apart obviously) as the King's mob who got 5th place back in 2011/2012 with 65 points. How we could do with Cabaye/HBA/Ba and an in form Cisse. Think we might get 5th or 6th now which is still a commendable achievement. 

I genuinely believe we’ll finish 8th but that’s still a big leap forward and a success. Think we’ve run out of steam and I read somewhere about how many of our players have played over 2000 minutes of football this season and it’s showing. 

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Liverpool have Chelsea and Man City both away shortly. Would be nice if they and Chelsea take points off each other and City smash them.

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6 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

Liverpool have Chelsea and Man City both away shortly. Would be nice if they and Chelsea take points off each other and City smash them.

 

And Arsenal right after that too. 

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59 minutes ago, Gawalls said:

I genuinely believe we’ll finish 8th but that’s still a big leap forward and a success. Think we’ve run out of steam and I read somewhere about how many of our players have played over 2000 minutes of football this season and it’s showing. 


We were 3 points off 8th last season. Given the signings of Pope, Botman, Isak etc and having Bruno all season I don’t know how you can argue that’s a ‘success’.

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1 hour ago, Gawalls said:

Think we’ve run out of steam and I read somewhere about how many of our players have played over 2000 minutes of football this season and it’s showing. 

 

200.gif

 

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13 minutes ago, Ronaldo said:


We were 3 points off 8th last season. Given the signings of Pope, Botman, Isak etc and having Bruno all season I don’t know how you can argue that’s a ‘success’.

Ron, out of interest what would you suggest if we did finish 8th?

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40 minutes ago, Ronaldo said:


We were 3 points off 8th last season. Given the signings of Pope, Botman, Isak etc and having Bruno all season I don’t know how you can argue that’s a ‘success’.

it's still Howe's first full season in charge - just because he gave himself such a high target last season doesn't mean any drop off from now will deem it as unsuccessful.  If we break top ten and improve on last season then i'll applaud him and all involved at the end, saying that i'll totally understand people who don't and won't be jumping on here causing arguments either.

 

 

Edited by Gawalls

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1 hour ago, Gawalls said:

I genuinely believe we’ll finish 8th but that’s still a big leap forward and a success. Think we’ve run out of steam and I read somewhere about how many of our players have played over 2000 minutes of football this season and it’s showing. 

 

Who do you have as the two clubs finishing above us? If Chelsea click, they could be dangerous, but Brighton, Fulham, Brentford, etc have as many flaws as we do and are equally susceptible to swings in form. 

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27 minutes ago, jackyboy said:

Liverpool were a long way from fourth place a month ago and have shot up the table. We can do the same

 

It is strange that we're concerned that everyone around us will have or maintain upticks I'm form, whilst we simultaneously continue to perform poorly. Very Relegationmeter 21/22.

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36 minutes ago, jackyboy said:

Liverpool were a long way from fourth place a month ago and have shot up the table. We can do the same

It’s a fair point, but they have Salah, Gakpo, Jota, Nunez, Diaz and Firmino to call upon. We don’t have that luxury.

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To be fair to Ronaldo. If we finished on 52 points (last seasons total for 8th), that means we'd have picked up 11 points from our last 14 games, which would be concerning form. Even at our current rate, we've picked up 8 from 8, so the wheels would have to completely come off.

 

 

Edited by The Prophet

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On 18/08/2022 at 15:05, HaydnNUFC said:

This is why we simply have to progress this season, probably into some form of European football whether that's Europa League or Conference League in order to indicate to our top players of how much we want to grow. Being happy with 11th-8th will get you nowhere in terms of holding onto your best players and attracting new ones. Look at Leicester now after missing out.

 

We only finished 7 points off Europe last season and we didn't win in the first 14 games and had 1 win after 21 games. Progress is required.

 

Had a look back to the start of the season, posted that back in August and I stand by that tbh. 8th now, whilst a far cry from Ashley, Charnaz and Stephen Roger would be quite the collapse. We were briefly 2nd after Boxing Day and have been 3rd for a good chunk of the season. To miss out and allow Fulham, Brentford, Chelsea or others to also finish above us would be quite disappointing.

 

End of the day we can still win our games in hand and be back in the top 4. Man Utd and Spurs still have to come to SJP. We just have to start putting the ball in the back of the fucking net.

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1 hour ago, Ronaldo said:


We were 3 points off 8th last season. Given the signings of Pope, Botman, Isak etc and having Bruno all season I don’t know how you can argue that’s a ‘success’.

A lot of last season's sucess was down to that feel good factor and momentum imo.

 

That's gone now.

 

And we have about the 8-9 best squad in the league in terms of talent. 2 of the squads better than ours are out of it in West Ham & Chelsea so 7th / 8th is about par.

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A key difference between last season and this season (or, more to the point, the second half of this season) is that teams are setting themselves up specifically against us. We turn up as a big threat, and their gameplan is based on countering us.

 

Last season, and to my surprise, also the first half of this season, teams didn't see us that way and it gave us the element of surprise and a clean run at them. That's why we're in a quandary now. Everything is literally harder now, which is a big compliment to our achievements so far, and it's why before this season began I was bracing for a slog akin to what we now have, even though I knew something much grander was possible.

 

Basically, we need our Bellamy and Robert moment to break this cycle, in my view. Then you'll see another explosion in our results.

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Just win Sunday and our season can easily turn around quicker than we realize. 


We literally just cocked up 6 points (3 wins versus 3 draws) v Leeds, West Ham and one of Palace (this is the more likely one given a few chances) or Bournemouth (we were ass here) which in reality we had more than enough chances to get that. 


A clean sheet Sunday and a proper 2 to 3 goal win with the Stadium bouncing and we’re going to be looking up and back on track. 
 

Win at all costs Sunday. It’ll happen. 

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