The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[The Prophet]

1 minute ago, The College Dropout said:

It does go to show that we've dropped 5 points late in games this season.

 

I don't remember that happening much last season (in either direction apart from Forest away).

 

Liverpool away and Leeds away spring to mind.

 

It's not really worth worrying about unless it becomes a trend though. Late goals are part and parcel of the drama we love, it just hurts to be on the receiving end.

[The College Dropout]

Aye as you say - too early to draw any conclusions.

[Kanj]

@Kid Icarus the stats, research, analysis you've provided on the last page was really good reading and very helpful context to this season's story after 8 matches. 

 

I of course want and believe us to be able to get 4th again but will always maintain as long as we are consistently improving on & off the pitch and at the very least in Europa league and making good efforts at the domestic cups, I am supremely satisfied. 

 

Based on the 8 matches I've seen of us this season in the league and 3 cup matches, I fully see us trending towards top 5-6. 

[Bellars]

For me, this is still a transition season. We massively overperformed expectations last year. We still have a relatively thin squad where a couple of injuries in the wrong places can de-rail things. 

 

I want two things: (A) a competitive showing in the Champions League, and (B) a finish in the top 6 of the PL.

 

I think that would reflect progress, even if we don't get back to the top 4. Adding European Competition is a ask of the players, especially given the intense style we play (which is hard on players). A lot of the players looked very fatigued at West Ham already (not surprising given the slate of fixtures we have had recently). 

[BullyDogs]

I said before season starts with the added run of games and if we go deep in these competitions that injuries and suspensions would stretch the squad depth. Top 6 and a good cup run in all of them would be great. If we can sneak 5th and get that new last CL spot would be even better

 

I think around xmas time we will be able to gauge it better

[Mazzy]

6 hours ago, jonny1403 said:

 

It's a bit of a stretch to assume all of those teams will continue to do that well - especially Villa and West Ham. Are Brighton even doing that much better than last year as well? It also ignores the fact that Man U are looking worse.

 

Pretty much everyone said the same about us last season, how we couldn't keep it up, but we did. West Ham might fall away but Villa and Brighton will be up there.

 

Man U are looking worse but Spurs are alot better and Liverpool also, so it balances out compared to last year and you could even argue there's now one extra team in with a shot at top 4/5.

[The College Dropout]

Europe after Christas + European football next season is good for me.

 

I think the current top 4 + Man U will take some beating. 65+ points can't be sniffed at.

 

Btw I think expecting to finish in the top 6 is crazy. 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by The College Dropout

[Mattoon]

We were good for it last season but we can't discount the underperformance of Spurs, Liverpool and for a while Man Utd, add to that Villa and Brighton both on the up and I think this season top 4 looks a lot tougher, even with personal progress.

 

Some kind of European competition is probably necessary at this point to attract the players we need to progress further, but it's important to remember we're only 2 years into a long game project and we don't have the quality in depth the usual suspect have. There will be disappointing periods of the season but instead of turning on Howe and the team I hope we look further ahead at the actual target and don't act spoiled because of what we've already tasted.

[wormy]

Are coefficient points weighted by the competition you're in? Or can we still reasonably build ours up if we make Europa or Conference?

[The Prophet]

10 minutes ago, Mattoon said:

We were good for it last season but we can't discount the underperformance of Spurs, Liverpool and for a while Man Utd, add to that Villa and Brighton both on the up and I think this season top 4 looks a lot tougher, even with personal progress.

 

Some kind of European competition is probably necessary at this point to attract the players we need to progress further, but it's important to remember we're only 2 years into a long game project and we don't have the quality in depth the usual suspect have. There will be disappointing periods of the season but instead of turning on Howe and the team I hope we look further ahead at the actual target and don't act spoiled because of what we've already tasted.

 

Every league season will have teams underperforming and overperforming by their unusual standards. If we hit 70+ points again we'll more likely than not be in the top 4-5 and the Champions League.

[Matt1892]

 

 

A few interesting bits from the BBC article.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/67144491

[AyeDubbleYoo]

So the best XG over one of the hardest sets of fixtures. Not bad at all. 

[Nine]

Keep in mind the xG will be heavily skewed by the 0-8. 

[healthyaddiction]

1 minute ago, Nine said:

Keep in mind the xG will be heavily skewed by the 0-8. 

We only had an xg of about 3.5 in that match I think.

[SteV]

On 09/10/2023 at 19:24, wormy said:

Are coefficient points weighted by the competition you're in? Or can we still reasonably build ours up if we make Europa or Conference?

 

https://kassiesa.net/uefa/calc.html

[Miggys First Goal]

Would take.

 

Opta-Simulated Premier League Table

 

After simulating the Premier League 2023-24 season 10,000 times following eight games played, we’re able to rank teams positionally. Here’s the Opta supercomputer results from those simulations:

 

1st: Manchester City
2nd: Arsenal
3rd: Liverpool
4th: Tottenham Hotspur
5th: Newcastle United
6th: Aston Villa
7th: Brighton & Hove Albion
8th: West Ham United
9th: Manchester United
10th: Chelsea
11th: Crystal Palace
12th: Fulham
13th: Brentford
14th: Wolverhampton Wanderers
15th: Nottingham Forest
16th: Everton
17th: Burnley
18th: Bournemouth
19th: Luton Town
20th: Sheffield United

 

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/10/premier-league-2023-24-relegation-predictions-october/

[wormy]

13 minutes ago, SteV said:

 

https://kassiesa.net/uefa/calc.html

 

Cheers. So if we end up in the Conference League a good run would still do our coefficient the world of good.

 

In that case I'd be more than content with any form of Europe to still keep us on the right track for future seasons as the squad continues to be improved.

[SteV]

10 minutes ago, wormy said:

 

Cheers. So if we end up in the Conference League a good run would still do our coefficient the world of good.

 

In that case I'd be more than content with any form of Europe to still keep us on the right track for future seasons as the squad continues to be improved.

Aye, it’s basically why Rangers would have been in Pot 3 had they got through the CL qualifiers this season. Off the back of reaching the Europa final a couple of years ago.

[SteV]

Robertson knackered for a while for Liverpool

[The Butcher]

Shame

[nufc123]

4 hours ago, SteV said:

Robertson knackered for a while for Liverpool

Bar City Liverpool will probably win all their games without Robertson.

[Decky]

4 hours ago, SteV said:

Robertson knackered for a while for Liverpool

Tsimikas will fill in just fine for them though, shouldn’t be much of an issue for them. 

[SteV]

56 minutes ago, Decky said:

Tsimikas will fill in just fine for them though, shouldn’t be much of an issue for them. 

Tsimikas is decent enough, but it’s a fair old drop off from Robertson.

[54]

Above the best team in the league in Brighton I see.

[wormy]

Best attack in the league, joint fifth defence. Multiple quality players to come back and support an already fantastically-performing squad. Eddie fucking Howe a God Amongst men.

 

4/10. I'll be grateful for top ten.