The Prophet Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 (edited) Beat Spurs next week, Brighton don't play, so it'll be six points clear with a game in hand. Psychologically that'd feel pretty big. Edited April 16, 2023 by The Prophet Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
astraguy Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 If Spuds don't respond to the fa tomorrow,I believe stellini wont be on the touch line? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, andyc35i said: Those percentages will drastically change if Spurs come away from St James’ with 3 points Those percentages will also change if we lose all our games and they win all theirs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 Villa's percent is creeping up, worrying. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilikenewcastle Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 12 minutes ago, gbandit said: Those percentages make such little sense I don't trust these % chance things that Sky keep using. They seem to change dramatically even after a team wins a game you expect them to win. I'd say if Liverpool or Villa finish ahead of us, then we've probably fallen well short of 4th. If we just average a point a game for the rest of the season, Liverpool and Villa have to win all but 1/2 games to catch us. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, ilikenewcastle said: I don't trust these % chance things that Sky keep using. They seem to change dramatically even after a team wins a game you expect them to win. I'd say if Liverpool or Villa finish ahead of us, then we've probably fallen well short of 4th. If we just average a point a game for the rest of the season, Liverpool and Villa have to win all but 1/2 games to catch us. Even if you are a heavy favourite of say 67% or 1/2, you'll not win that game 33 times out of 100. When the points are in the bag you'll get pretty much an additional point compared to the projected. Also stay in good form which is a factor on future projections. Edited April 16, 2023 by Pata Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyc35i Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 Villa have got a great chance of getting right amongst the battle. I mean if they can beat Brentford before we play Spurs then they heap even more pressure on both of us Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, andyc35i said: Villa have got a great chance of getting right amongst the battle. I mean if they can beat Brentford before we play Spurs then they heap even more pressure on both of us Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 Villa need to hope we don't win our game in hand, then gain seven points on us from seven games with Brentford (a), Man United (a), Spurs (h), Liverpool (a), Brighton (h) still to come. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronaldo Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 Spurs at home is an easy fixture for them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
80 Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 8 hours ago, Displayname said: Spurs could play Southampton at home in all their remaining games and i still wouldnt be that scared of them. Yep. Revisiting Villa quickly, the way l see it, if we can discount them then we can pretty much discount everyone. Doing that table above, and giving Manchester United 100% for the sake of argument, I gave us 71%... The major difference from the table above being I gave Villa 7%. If this end of season was played out 15 times, do I think it would happen about once between now and 2038? Yes. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, Ronaldo said: Spurs at home is an easy fixture for them. I know they battered us yesterday, but Villa still aren't all that. Got momentum though, which is always handy. As I say they're 25/1 if anyone genuinely fancies them. They need to overhaul us, Spurs and Brighton. Not that it matters a huge deal, but the bookies think Brighton are our biggest threat. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
wormy Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 All these % chance predictors the media break out just seem like a desperate attempt at shoehorning even more stats in when they just feel utterly pointless. Just feels pointless when you're tracking a predictor that swings wildly on a weekly basis. Might as well just look at the table and make your own mind up at that point. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, The Prophet said: I know they battered us yesterday, but Villa still aren't all that. Got momentum though, which is always handy. As I say they're 25/1 if anyone genuinely fancies them. They need to overhaul us, Spurs and Brighton. Not that it matters a huge deal, but the bookies think Brighton are our biggest threat. I've said this before but bookies have a pretty good idea what's going to happen in a small market like top 4 which isn't pulling that much money in. If I need to get an idea how likely something is I always check the bookies as it's their job to get that right to not lose money. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, wormy said: All these % chance predictors the media break out just seem like a desperate attempt at shoehorning even more stats in when they just feel utterly pointless. Just feels pointless when you're tracking a predictor that swings wildly on a weekly basis. Might as well just look at the table and make your own mind up at that point. They give probabilities to every match and then simulate the data thousands of times. Outliers obviously can happen and some teams can go on massive really unlikely runs. IMO they are far from useless and much more likely to get things right than you or me just looking at the table. Edited April 16, 2023 by Pata Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geogaddi Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 I can see Villa winning at Brentford next week, they are pretty much on the beach now but it would take a dramatic downturn from us for them to catch us, they still have to play Man United and Liverpool away as well as playing Brighton and Spurs at home. They will be a big danger next season though. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilliamPS Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 If you’re worried about Villa I imagine you must be shitting it about Brighton! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUPERTOON Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 Be interesting to reset the poll to gauge the overall feeling now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 2 hours ago, andyc35i said: Villa have got a great chance of getting right amongst the battle. I mean if they can beat Brentford before we play Spurs then they heap even more pressure on both of us Only if Spurs beat us. If we beat spurs and get good results in the next 2 - there’s no battle. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PauloGeordio Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 20 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said: Be interesting to reset the poll to gauge the overall feeling now. Let’s not throw the proverbial “turd in the bath” Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkie Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 1 hour ago, SUPERTOON said: Be interesting to reset the poll to gauge the overall feeling now. Good idea! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaydnNUFC Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 Probably 8 atm. 9 if we beat Spurs, 10 if we get 9 points from the next 3. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 No change for me, still a 5 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilikenewcastle Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 6 (7 if we beat Spurs). I think only going on our worst run of the season will stop us getting top 4, but I'll feel a lot better if and when I see a good response to that Villa performance. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 Did another predictor. This time I included Brighton and Villa, as well as us, Spurs and Man U. I had us finishing 4th, 7 points ahead of Spurs in 5th, who were 3 ahead of Brighton in 6th, then Villa in 7th. Just as note, we drew against Spurs, Brighton and Arsenal at home, won the rest against Leicester, Southampton, Leeds and Everton. I thought that was fair since there's a good chance we convert those draws into wins and also a fair chance we don't win all those other games. What works so so well for us, is that all of our rivals play each other. Brighton against Villa for example. Spurs have Man United and Liverpool. The fixtures just fall for us. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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