The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Ketsbaia]

16 hours ago, nufcjb said:

Is anyone on here good with finding stats? I'm not, but I really want to know whether there has been a drop in the number of attempts at goal from outside the penalty box by us post-world cup.

 

At the top of my head, the last time we scored from range was Bruno at Southampton and Willock against Chelsea at home.

 

We are trying to play the ball around the box without any shots ending the move. Its utterly frustrating and I'm sure this was not the case before the World Cup. What has changed in our policy for shooting from range? 

 

 

 

 

Pre-World Cup, we had 62 shots from outside the box during 15 matches (4.133 per match)

Post-World Cup, it's 27 during 8 outings (3.375 per match)

 

And, personally, I think we're now battling with Brighton for 6th place. Bit gutting, really. I don't have faith in our attack, although no side has underachieved more than us since the World Cup..... 6 goals but an xG of 13.11.

[nufcjb]

4 hours ago, Ketsbaia said:

 

Pre-World Cup, we had 62 shots from outside the box during 15 matches (4.133 per match)

Post-World Cup, it's 27 during 8 outings (3.375 per match)

 

And, personally, I think we're now battling with Brighton for 6th place. Bit gutting, really. I don't have faith in our attack, although no side has underachieved more than us since the World Cup..... 6 goals but an xG of 13.11.

Thanks for that mate. 

 

Looks like there may only be slight drop in the numbers, but that may also explain or be a factor in our number of goals also declining. We've had players in decent and reasonable areas outside the box to have a shot at goal but they instead pass it around and sideways trying to force themselves in to the box but eventually lose possession.

 

With the form of Wilson right now, it maybe wotrth having a crack at goal from distance when in good sight rather trying to force ourselves to find the right ball for Wilson. 

 

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by nufcjb

[Stottie]

More than anything, I think we need the ball to hit someone's arse and go in. A match like that Southampton league one where we got four (five?) off the same number of chances.

 

Sunday was disappointing, but Man U are good. For context, in both legs, Barcelona had 1.2 xG vs. Man U, the same as us on Sunday. No-one is calling for Barcelona to reinvent their attacking play.

 

In Isak and Gordon, we (finally) have quality attacking players who can come in. The most concerning of our recent games was Bournemouth, but it's been like that every time we play them under Howe. Maybe its a voodoo/them finding an extra 10% for Eddie thing.

 

Time to refocus, stick Isak in for Wilson, and go again. Our first team is great but the squad is threadbare, so shocks like the Bruno red card end up having much bigger repercussions.

[The Prophet]

We're 4 points off 4th with 2 games in hand. At this moment in time we still have an opportunity to finish there, but we need to start scoring goals and winning matches.

 

The underlying data still has us third in the league, but until we can convert that into results it's rather irrelevant.

 

I haven't a clue where we're going to finish, but I do think we'll hit form again at some point. Even if that's enough to secure a top 6 finish, it's still a brilliant effort. But to say that the top 4 is gone in the position that we're in is nonsense, granted we need to start scoring goals sooner rather than later to maintain our position.

[STM]

It's not about dropping Longstaff, Wilson and Miggy per se. It's about putting fresh ideas into the starting 11. It's stale and predictable.

 

In a few weeks, you could easily see a rejuvenated Wilson or Miggy back in the side. It's just what we need to do now.

 

Attacking is about being unpredictable and dynamic. Defending about being solid and consistent. We've taken the latter traits and applied them to the former. They are almost over coached in that sense. Sometimes you have to rely on the individual to do his own thing.

 

A small reboot and results will will flow.

[Lush Vlad]

15 minutes ago, STM said:

It's not about dropping Longstaff, Wilson and Miggy per se. It's about putting fresh ideas into the starting 11. It's stale and predictable.

 

In a few weeks, you could easily see a rejuvenated Wilson or Miggy back in the side. It's just what we need to do now.

 

Attacking is about being unpredictable and dynamic. Defending about being solid and consistent. We've taken the latter traits and applied them to the former. They are almost over coached in that sense. Sometimes you have to rely on the individual to do his own thing.

 

A small reboot and results will will flow.

 

Agree with this.  Stale and predictable is certainly how I have viewed our attack for a while now.  

 

It does also seem like the high press has started to drop off a lot.  I think some teams were playing round it quite effectively (West Ham?) and perhaps it has also been due to fatigue or certain players playing through injuries and not being able to work to that level.  

 

Either way, it feels a bit like we are caught between sticking or twisting.  It's like the identity has gone a little bit.  

 

It sounds ridiculously harsh typing this out and reading it back!  It could just be that basically all of our players have been over-achieving or consistently playing right up to their highest possible level.  So it may just be that some have dropped slightly, or are not on such a mad run of form.  So the team has taken a hit as a collective. 

 

 But I do feel like we have a few genuine options for positions now and I feel like some rotation or fresh ideas are needed.  

 

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by Lush Vlad

[The Prophet]

19 minutes ago, STM said:

It's not about dropping Longstaff, Wilson and Miggy per se. It's about putting fresh ideas into the starting 11. It's stale and predictable.

 

In a few weeks, you could easily see a rejuvenated Wilson or Miggy back in the side. It's just what we need to do now.

 

Attacking is about being unpredictable and dynamic. Defending about being solid and consistent. We've taken the latter traits and applied them to the former. They are almost over coached in that sense. Sometimes you have to rely on the individual to do his own thing.

 

A small reboot and results will will flow.

 

I do agree and while I don't think fatigue is a huge factor yet, I still don't think it would hurt to give the likes of Burn, Wilson and Miggy a rest. They have all shown signs of tiredness or not quite being as sharp of late.

[Kid Icarus]

As predictable as it might be for us watching it, our xG hasn't changed, we're now just hugely underperforming it.

 

I honestly don't think it goes too much further than that. I don't think you can discount the huge drop off that Wilson has had, Almiron's purple patch being over, and the long list of sitters missed by Wilson, Longstaff, Joelinton, Burn, Schär etc.

[South-Cheshire-Toon]

I've been waiting to post this - but have waited until the cup game was over - so here goes.

 

After last years shite start to the season, then with Howe coming in, doing wonders and getting us to a finishing position of 11th this years 'initial' thread was the "relegation-o-meter" and we all put in our 'predictions'.

Not for one minute would I except from anyone that they would predict us to be top 4 by Christmas.

 

Now there were a series of factors that have helped our position - Liverpool and Chelsea not performing, so Manure can be said to have done that for the first half of the season, and then put together with other teams all being of the same calibre - Brighton, Fulham, Spurs etc - all these teams were drawing against each other, whilst we happen to be winning more, which has lead us to the position over Christmas of being in the top 4.

 

Wow - top 4 - then the thread 'changed' to 'Top-4-ometer', and the predictions have come in for that, and people are now thinking of what could be - but this position needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

It's not that I'm not liking, or not wanting to finish in the top 4, but personally, I think we'll finish in the top 10, at best a Europa league place - reasoning, as other have mentioned, lack of squad depth, players tired, other teams performing better.

 

Now to some this might be a 'waste' and 'failure' but as other have said, it gives us something to build on, as getting into the champions league would, in my opinion, be a disaster, as with all the extra games, we'd finish 3rd or 4th.

I see it, as an ongoing, evolving situation, play well, finish good league position, attract better players, repeat - and one day, hopefully some time soon - we will be a top 4 finisher - and deserve our place in whatever competition - and may those times last.

 

[Alberto2005]

2 minutes ago, South-Cheshire-Toon said:

I've been waiting to post this - but have waited until the cup game was over - so here goes.

 

After last years shite start to the season, then with Howe coming in, doing wonders and getting us to a finishing position of 11th this years 'initial' thread was the "relegation-o-meter" and we all put in our 'predictions'.

Not for one minute would I except from anyone that they would predict us to be top 4 by Christmas.

 

Now there were a series of factors that have helped our position - Liverpool and Chelsea not performing, so Manure can be said to have done that for the first half of the season, and then put together with other teams all being of the same calibre - Brighton, Fulham, Spurs etc - all these teams were drawing against each other, whilst we happen to be winning more, which has lead us to the position over Christmas of being in the top 4.

 

Wow - top 4 - then the thread 'changed' to 'Top-4-ometer', and the predictions have come in for that, and people are now thinking of what could be - but this position needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

It's not that I'm not liking, or not wanting to finish in the top 4, but personally, I think we'll finish in the top 10, at best a Europa league place - reasoning, as other have mentioned, lack of squad depth, players tired, other teams performing better.

 

Now to some this might be a 'waste' and 'failure' but as other have said, it gives us something to build on, as getting into the champions league would, in my opinion, be a disaster, as with all the extra games, we'd finish 3rd or 4th.

I see it, as an ongoing, evolving situation, play well, finish good league position, attract better players, repeat - and one day, hopefully some time soon - we will be a top 4 finisher - and deserve our place in whatever competition - and may those times last.

 

We're going to have extra games if we qualify for the Europa League anyway, and that's probably even worse because it's Thursday to Sunday in comparison to Champions League you might get the odd Tuesday to Saturday with an extra days rest.

[The Prophet]

Looking at that little purple patch we had, where we won 8 in 9, our goal scorers were:

 

Miggy x 7, Wilson x 4, Bruno x 3, Willock x 2, Wood x 1, Joelinton x 1, Longstaff x 1, Murphy x 1, OG x 1.

 

Our top scorer hasn't been able to maintain what was a ridiculous run of form, while the focal point of our attack has fallen to bits. They accounted for 11 of the 21 goals we scored in that period. I know there are other factors that have contributed to the reduction in goals scored, but this is a big one. 

 

 

[BoSelecta]

Another thing to note is our xG numbers are inflated by ‘chances’ from crossed free kicks and corners (which we never score). Even in our purple patch we weren’t scoring a lot from these situations and were infact vastly outscoring our xG from the other chances (namely miggy’s weekly worldies).

 

This gives a false impression that we were close to ‘par’ on goals scored and are now simply in a dry patch of poor finishing which won’t continue. I’m not sure it’s that simple unfortunately - we are likely to continue missing a high volume of 0.2-0.5xG chances from crosses; the question is can we find the goals elsewhere?
 

I’d be interested to see our xG from open play statistics from both periods, not sure if they are collated anywhere.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, The Prophet said:

We're 4 points off 4th with 2 games in hand. At this moment in time we still have an opportunity to finish there, but we need to start scoring goals and winning matches.

 

The underlying data still has us third in the league, but until we can convert that into results it's rather irrelevant.

 

I haven't a clue where we're going to finish, but I do think we'll hit form again at some point. Even if that's enough to secure a top 6 finish, it's still a brilliant effort. But to say that the top 4 is gone in the position that we're in is nonsense, granted we need to start scoring goals sooner rather than later to maintain our position.

 

We're definitely in it, but I think Spurs will edge it. They're been building for 10 years or so though what we're aiming for in 18 months. 

 

I think 6th is the lowest we'll finish but 4th is still there for us.

[The Butcher]

Anything lower than 6th would be really disappointing imo. 

[Abacus]

Whilst a drop down the league would obviously be disappointing, I'd have been very happy with a top 7 finish and a decent cup run before the start of the season.

 

I know the Europa League is a bit of a distraction, but I don't think a lot of players in other leagues see it that way.

 

In other words, while it doesn't have the money or the draw of the Champions League, it should still help us attract a better calibre of players. Plus, it's fun to be in.

 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

1 hour ago, BoSelecta said:

Another thing to note is our xG numbers are inflated by ‘chances’ from crossed free kicks and corners (which we never score). Even in our purple patch we weren’t scoring a lot from these situations and were infact vastly outscoring our xG from the other chances (namely miggy’s weekly worldies).

 

This gives a false impression that we were close to ‘par’ on goals scored and are now simply in a dry patch of poor finishing which won’t continue. I’m not sure it’s that simple unfortunately - we are likely to continue missing a high volume of 0.2-0.5xG chances from crosses; the question is can we find the goals elsewhere?
 

I’d be interested to see our xG from open play statistics from both periods, not sure if they are collated anywhere.

 

Does that make sense? Isn't xG based on how good the chance is? 

 

How likely we are to score an individual chance is one thing, but in the abstract they will still count for a number of xG like they do for every team. 

[The College Dropout]

Aye. We need to evolve. Tweak our approach.

 

I think 4-2-3-1 is a route for that. More attacking LB. Varying our wing play. Varying set pieces. Need different attacking combinations. Targett, ASM, Gordon, Isak will be huge for that hopefully.

[Kid Icarus]

xG from open play makes no sense to me. Aside from pens, I don't understand why chances from set pieces should be discounted, surely they're just as relevant.

[The Prophet]

xG is quite limited in the way it determines a "chance" or a "big chance" as their are a lot of immeasurable variables, but it's a useful tool and tends to match the eye test on the whole. It's interesting, but it should be used in alongside other factors.

[TRon]

2 hours ago, The Butcher said:

Anything lower than 6th would be really disappointing imo. 

 

Before the season I would have been really happy with 7th, but having spent the majority of the season in a CL place, I agree, less than 6th would feel slightly disappointing. Although in reality we should have no business being that high considering our squad value.

[The College Dropout]

15 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

xG from open play makes no sense to me. Aside from pens, I don't understand why chances from set pieces should be discounted, surely they're just as relevant.

They are just as relevant. But also separate things with different factors.

 

Our Xg from set pieces is partly so high because we have a high volume of them. Every freekick we launch it in, so there's a bit of a cumulation of small Xg chances. So a disproportionate amount of our XG is from relatively low Xg set pieces from below average finishers. And there's a massive difference to a genuinely creative side, to a side who are reliant on set pieces for shot creation (and Xg).

 

Just checked the stats for attempted shots from set pieces. We are 1st with 130. Then City 109 (played 2 more games than us), Liverpool  103,  Leeds 99, Soton 77.

 

It's definitely skewing the numbers a bit. We get in crosses from set pieces (quality from Tripps) a lot and get our heads on it but ultimately miss. With better players in the air we could have 2-3 more and be square. But we're still some way off Spurs in first. Who don't have a tremendous amount of shots from set pieces but must have good routine or excellent players to attack them. They did us that way too.

 

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by The College Dropout

[AyeDubbleYoo]

But each one is still an expected goal, so why does it matter that it's from a corner?

[The College Dropout]

2 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

But each one is still an expected goal, so why does it matter that it's from a corner?

Yes fundamentally you are right. But there is definitely some cumulative low Xg happening which does matter. And it speaks to our style of play and general creativity that a lot of our shot creation is from set pieces. You would expect that from Big Sam.... 

[Kid Icarus]

 

https://understat.com/team/Newcastle_United/2022

[STM]

I'd be shocked if we didn't go on a strong run of form before the end of the season. Whether it's good enough for top 4 is another question.

 

We are at the stage where 1 win changes everything.