The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[54]

According to FiveThirtyEight, and whatever metrics they use, we have a 66% chance of finishing in the top for, and a less then 2% chance of finishing 8th or lower.

[Rod]

6 minutes ago, Froggy said:

I did one of the prediction thingies and it had you getting top four over Liverpool. Spurs 6th.

 

Where did your team finish?

[gazza ladra]

This site is also optimistic about our chances.

 

http://www.playoffstatus.com/english-premier-league/epl-standings.html
 

[Froggy]

5 minutes ago, Rod said:

Where did your team finish?

 

3rd Rod. I had us dropping points to Spurs, Villa, Brighton, West Ham and Chelsea while beating Brentford, Everton, Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth and Fulham.

[SUPERTOON]

24 minutes ago, GWN said:

Simply don’t have anyone on my mind other than 

 

Man U 

Spurs 

Liverpool

Chelsea 

 

Man U and Spurs are the only ones who can chin us from 4th IMO 

I’d give Brighton a better chance than spurs tbh 

[Rod]

1 minute ago, Froggy said:

 

3rd Rod. I had us dropping points to Spurs, Villa, Brighton, West Ham and Chelsea while beating Brentford, Everton, Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth and Fulham.

Fair enough.

[Froggy]

1 minute ago, Rod said:

Fair enough.

 

It won't play out that way mind.  Stomach is already doing cartwheels about the game tonight. It's a must win.

[Rod]

2 minutes ago, Froggy said:

 

3rd Rod. I had us dropping points to Spurs, Villa, Brighton, West Ham and Chelsea while beating Brentford, Everton, Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth and Fulham.

Villa are getting away with murder at the moment (look at the stats) and they scraped past 10 man Leicester.  You will beat them easily.

[SUPERTOON]

4 minutes ago, Rod said:

Villa are getting away with murder at the moment (look at the stats) and they scraped past 10 man Leicester.  You will beat them easily.

Your hatred of Villa/Emery is one of my favourite things on here ?

[Rod]

44 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Your hatred of Villa/Emery is one of my favourite things on here ?

Too right.

[Rod]

45 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Your hatred of Villa/Emery is one of my favourite things on here ?

In all seriousness, the football Villa play is awful on the eye.  They beat Chelsea on Saturday and it's a complete mystery as to how.  Chelsea had 27 (that's TWENTY SEVEN) shots, 13 corners and 69% possesion.  Emery gets away with feckin murder I tell ya!

[The College Dropout]

Liverpool have lost 9 times in 28 games.

 

They'll not be near top 4 unless something magically changes.

[Chicken Dancer]

The fact Liverpool looked pretty shit in 20/21 then scraped in the Top 4 with their keeper scoring a 95th minute winner along the way still gives me the creeps.

 

Going 10pts clear of them with a win tonight should keep them at arms length for the remaining games. 

[The Prophet]

Liverpool looked a threat after they beat us, I believe that was their third win a row. Since then they've lost to Bournemouth and taken a hiding at City, at this point Brighton have a far better chance of top four than they do.

[ponsaelius]

FiveThirtyEight have Brighton ahead of both Spurs and Liverpool at the moment for the top four.

[wormy]

6 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

Liverpool looked a threat after they beat us, I believe that was their third win a row. Since then they've lost to Bournemouth and taken a hiding at City, at this point Brighton have a far better chance of top four than they do.

 

It's really annoying that of all teams, they're the only ones that will have done the double over us come the end of the season. Especially as they were there for the taking on both occasions.

[Kid Icarus]

I'd take more notice of my nana's tea leaves than FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver like. In the space of 3 game rounds we've gone from a a 29% chance to a 66% chance of CL qualification. Any model that moves that wildly over so little isn't worth much imo.

[Kanj]

Doubt Nate is spending time on the PL algo but I totally get what you’re saying. 

[Shays Given Tim Flowers]

Our goal difference is a good indication of our consistency. Win tonight and it's four on the spin which would be a great run to have put together. 

[Kid Icarus]

I just saw the opportunity to have a dig at him and took it

[Kanj]

I love that Wilson said “Draws won’t get you champions league football” or something after the match Sunday on Sky. I really do think we will get 3 points tonight. A win tonight is fucking massive and could see us going on a similar pre WC run if that’s the case. 

[The College Dropout]

Liverpool need to win 9 out of their 10 remaining fixtures to get into the CL. 

[Chicken Dancer]

It's also quite telling that despite Howe remaining grounded and never mention it, both Botman and Wilson have openly came out and mentioned the Champions League recently.

 

Belief is the main drive here. We seen in the second half of the second leg of the semi against Southampton that the pressured (seemed to) got to us a tad, but that was in the middle of our 'poor' run.

 

I said it at the time but I think the Forest win before the international break was our biggest win of the season. Late winner going into a 2 week break is huge. 

 

Hopefully we can come out of this tough mini-run with 5pts + then sets us up nicely for what I believe will be the biggest game at St James' for many a year against Spurs.

 

Everyone looks fresh and rejuvenated again, and we now have a decent bench to call upon. Keep everyone fit and we can do this. I've never really believed all season - mainly due to my Ashley hangover seeming everlasting - that we can do it, but Sunday done a lot to convince me that we can. 

[TRon]

1 hour ago, Chicken Dancer said:

It's also quite telling that despite Howe remaining grounded and never mention it, both Botman and Wilson have openly came out and mentioned the Champions League recently.

 

Belief is the main drive here. We seen in the second half of the second leg of the semi against Southampton that the pressured (seemed to) got to us a tad, but that was in the middle of our 'poor' run.

 

I said it at the time but I think the Forest win before the international break was our biggest win of the season. Late winner going into a 2 week break is huge. 

 

Hopefully we can come out of this tough mini-run with 5pts + then sets us up nicely for what I believe will be the biggest game at St James' for many a year against Spurs.

 

Everyone looks fresh and rejuvenated again, and we now have a decent bench to call upon. Keep everyone fit and we can do this. I've never really believed all season - mainly due to my Ashley hangover seeming everlasting - that we can do it, but Sunday done a lot to convince me that we can. 

 

Howe's never played down the chances of CL football either. He won't talk it up, but he's never come out and said we aren't going for it. He's careful what he says, but you can read between the lines he's got CL qualification in his sights.

[HaydnNUFC]

4 hours ago, Chicken Dancer said:

The fact Liverpool looked pretty shit in 20/21 then scraped in the Top 4 with their keeper scoring a 95th minute winner along the way still gives me the creeps.

 

Going 10pts clear of them with a win tonight should keep them at arms length for the remaining games. 

 

One way of looking at it is, if we win tonight, between now and the end of the season are Liverpool going to get 11 more points than us? Not a chance imo.