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The TopFourometer™ (2022/23)


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The TopFourometer™ & TopFourometer™ For Dummies (2022/23)  

356 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish in the top four this season? (0 = nee chance // 5 = can’t call it // 10 = nailed on lerk)

  2. 2. Will we finish in the top four this season?



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8 minutes ago, gbandit said:

Spurs are an injury away from their season falling apart. They lose Son or Kane and they can put the party bags in the bin 

 

As long as they have one of them plus Kulusevski and Richarlison they're fine. Lose two of those four and they'll struggle though.

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11 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

As long as they have one of them plus Kulusevski and Richarlison they're fine. Lose two of those four and they'll struggle though.

I massively rate Kulusevski and Richarlison but I’d say for the most part they’re final third players whereas Son and Kane cause huge damage from midfield, Son with his runs and passing, Kane with his unbelievable passing. Think an injury to Kane or Son would really disrupt their build up play 

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9 hours ago, buzz said:

 

Also Anderson (?) missing a point blank header in the last minute at Wolves 

 

Bit harsh on Anderson, I think. He did well to win get his header in under a strong challenge from Neves (I think it was) and he hit the post. 

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Just now, Froggy said:

 

What was the bet? It's been an amazing first half of the season for you, but it still feels like we're in second gear at the minute. I'd be shocked and annoyed if you finished above us. :lol: I can't see it at all. Spurs though?

 

 

 

I have these conversations quite a bit—I live in Manchester—and Man Utd banter has replaced the kind of Sunderland ‘ribbing’ that used to occur when I was in the North East and they were in the same league (literally and figuratively).

Most ‘dans la Manc’ seem to feel slightly more optimistic now. Some are still seething/can’t adjust to the change that has occurred, have a “We are Manchester Utd” impenetrable (by the facts) ego. Inflated by phenomenal, but past, successes.
 

MUFC had their worst points return (in the Premiership/League era) last season. 1.53 points per game; not normally enough to finish 6th (1.61 ppg is average) but they did. Prior to that they’ve only been out of the top six once (2013-14 but with a better points return).

I think Man U realistic goals, especially given the shit-show soap-opera that has been stinking-up the place, are making sure they don’t fall to a new (modern) low. Man City and Arsenal are much better/out of reach, Liverpool will overtake you. So you are competing with Brighton and Spurs, maybe even with Chelsea and Newcastle. Though mainly competing with your expectations and the weight of the past, through trying to maintain a better performance this season that’ll put you in and around the top six mix. Unsurprisingly, I still fancy us to finish above you though. Not bothered if it is 6th over 7th, or 4th over 5th (or 3rd over 8th, who knows 🤷‍♂️) and I’d gladly trade it in for beating you in the League Cup (final preferably) 

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Man City and Liverpool are the obvious ones that will likely overtake us, after that though I see nothing to fear from Spurs and Chelsea. Not worked Man United out yet but they don’t have a decent centre forward and don’t look like buying one now either which is mental when you consider the amount of money they have spent. They also have a very similar points tally to what they did at this stage last season so haven’t exactly improved. I am starting to think 5th is the absolute lowest we will finish.

 

 

Edited by Geogaddi

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It’s touch and go. Season isn’t even at halfway mark.

 

To get top 4 the form from the last 16 games has to last for another 22, that’s a big ask from the players and from a relatively shallow squad. It also means winning the home 6 pointers against Tottenham and Man Utd at least.
 

But it’s not impossible and winning the first two games since the World Cup has restored the momentum 

 

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Whilst I'm loving where we are at at present, and don't get me wrong - may it last forever, I've a small seed of doubt about our overall performances, so the away game at Arsenal will be a good pointer as to where we 'actually' are with regard to team playing and strengths.

 

If you were to ask me how the season, as a general whole, for all teams is going, then I'd say that the 'usual suspects' aren't playing at their best (Liverpool earlier in the season - good example) - which is making us look good - hence the comment above about the Arsenal game.

 

Personally - I think we'll end up some where in the top 7, and I'd really like us to get to a cup final - that then would be a catalyst for the future as then being able to attract a better calibre of player.

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I keep worrying about squad depth, but then I'm constantly surprised at how unsung players seem to just be able to step in and keep things rolling.

 

And we don't have any European games that most of the other contenders have.

 

That said, I'd be stunned and delighted at a top 4 finish in Howe's first full season. It would be well beyond what I thought was possible at the start of the season, and I still don't expect it now.

 

Still - it really would be a Keegan-like turnaround for a club in the doldrums and heading for relegation a little over 12 months ago.

 

 

Edited by Abacus

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5 hours ago, nufcjb said:

Liverpool home needs an Arsenal home last season atmosphere. Get the fans going. Saturday evening. If the players are readg and up for it, Klopp and his bunch won't know what'll hit them.

 

I think this transfer window maybe more important that some might think. If we have ambitions of staying in the top half,let alone top 4-6, we need extra quality players in to help sustain our push. A striker, a creative midfielder n possibly a top quality center back can help backup the squad should we sustain injuries to our key players. Some shrewd and clever signings and top 6 would be a good shout.

 

 

 


I agree we need 1-2 quality additions in Jan to sustain what we are doing and push for CL or Europa. 
 

But you think we might drop below 10th if we don’t buy anyone? Can’t see that, to be honest. 
 

I’d also still rather we focused on quality and a real game changer that would come in and start in midfield and/or a wide forward type, as well. The squad depth will naturally come if we can hit on players like that most windows. 

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27 minutes ago, WilliamPS said:

It’s touch and go. Season isn’t even at halfway mark.

 

To get top 4 the form from the last 16 games has to last for another 22, that’s a big ask from the players and from a relatively shallow squad. It also means winning the home 6 pointers against Tottenham and Man Utd at least.
 

But it’s not impossible and winning the first two games since the World Cup has restored the momentum 

 

 

I think the bolded is worth remembering. I was thinking the same thing when the usual 'top at Christmas' stats were being churned out. I know it's only a handful of games difference to usual at this time of the year but it can make a big difference.

 

I'll be disappointed if we miss out on Europe but that's more just because I've gotten my hopes up. Looking forward to seeing how they approach the January window.

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From time to time, we’ll all feel understandably anxious about form falling off, still be slightly disbelieving about the results we are achieving. However, last half season (from 15 January to end of season) Howe’s NUFC had this record:

p19 w12, d2, l5. 38 points; 2.0 points per game. 
This season: p16 w9 d6 l1 33pts, 2.1ppg. 
 

I don’t see any reason for/signs of a significant downturn looming. We are currently looking at a mid 70-something points return. We’d need a ten percent+ improvement to seriously challenge for the title (January shopping??) and a 20 percent+ deterioration to finish outside the top six.

 

It’ll eventually sink in, it seems we are, in fact, class. No malo. 

 

 

Edited by Coffee_Johnny

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I know it won’t define our season. But if we can win against Leeds and then either beat or get a well fought draw at Arsenal. Then why wouldn’t we be in the conversation for top 4 and possibly even a title push? 
 

I’m not really thinking like that yet. But I think it will take a long while to shake off my pessimistic views when it comes to this club. Too much pain and too many false dawns over the years. 

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24 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:

I know it won’t define our season. But if we can win against Leeds and then either beat or get a well fought draw at Arsenal. Then why wouldn’t we be in the conversation for top 4 and possibly even a title push? 
 

I’m not really thinking like that yet. But I think it will take a long while to shake off my pessimistic views when it comes to this club. Too much pain and too many false dawns over the years. 

 

Title push I think is out of the picture. We're already behind and there's very few points you can drop. But top 4 I think is doable and is surely the target. But a bonus target in the sense that we have clearly smashed our initial one.

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20 minutes ago, Cf said:

 

Title push I think is out of the picture. We're already behind and there's very few points you can drop. But top 4 I think is doable and is surely the target. But a bonus target in the sense that we have clearly smashed our initial one.


Think we would need to win pretty much every game to win the league, ain’t going to happen unless City and Arsenal implode

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41 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:


Think we would need to win pretty much every game to win the league, ain’t going to happen unless City and Arsenal implode

We wouldn’t need to win every game, but in all likelihood we’d need to accumulate another 58 points from 24 games (2.43 points per game) to put us on 91 points and around the 2.4ppg mark overall—the average winning total for last 10 years. So:

1) lose three, draw three, win 18 (90 points in total);

2) lose four, draw one, win 19 (91 points in total); 
3) lose three, draw two, win 19 (92 points in total).

 

I agree, can’t see it happening. But, as Eddie says, it’s great for us to dream! 

 

 

Edited by Coffee_Johnny
Overwhelmed by the possibility…

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14 minutes ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

We wouldn’t need to win every game, but in all likelihood we’d need to accumulate another 58 points from 24 games (2.43 points per game) to put us on 91 points and around the 2.4ppg mark overall—the average winning total for last 10 years. So lose three, draw three, win 18 (90 points in total). Or even more chance if we lose four, draw two, win 19 (91 points in total). 

 

I agree, can’t see it happening. But, as Eddie says, it’s great for us to dream! 


you’ve added an extra game in the second scenario 😊

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