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The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.


Rich

The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

615 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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Honestly, if Luke Shaw isn't back all you have to do is overload the right side of the pitch. Rashford won't track back, so it leaves the left back isolated. Shaw can handle it, but Lindelof and AWB cannot. It's where all of the attacks come from when teams play us. 

 

At the same time, nobody but Shaw is any use at attacking, so full backs aren't tracking runs and can sit in against Rashford, who is totally useless when he doesn't have space.

 

Top 5 is gone now, and top 6 will be a battle.

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1 hour ago, Froggy said:

 

:lol: Fair enough, but I really don't think so. 

 

I view you lot away as being comparable to any other mid table away match. 

 

It's only when you get to Spurs and above that I'd be thinking happy with a point here. We should be going for all 3 against you. 

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3 minutes ago, Cf said:

 

I view you lot away as being comparable to any other mid table away match. 

 

It's only when you get to Spurs and above that I'd be thinking happy with a point here. We should be going for all 3 against you. 

 

Should be going for all 3 against everybody to be fair. Should be a good game either way though. We would have much more success if Rashford was dropped.

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1 hour ago, STM said:

We will get battered off Man United away like. That's 6th gone. 

 

Right now I wouldn't fancy us to go to the likes of Brentford and get a result.

 

If we finish 7th we are for the most entertaining run in ever. The main reason we should be hopeful is because West Ham are well capable of losing games.

If we’re clinging on to aspirations (and sod it why not, we can get 19-20 points from the 27 available) we’d need to beat Man Utd. I reckon 14 points gives us a reasonable chance of 7th, which wouldn’t necessarily be such an entertaining run in. 

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18 hours ago, Sufi said:


 

Had no clue we have such a weak schedule to end the season. Should be winning all of those and can also get a result against spurs and Utd 
 

palace Brentford Brighton burnley Sheffield Everton should all be 3 points. 
 

fulham I can see being a draw maybe. 
 

wouldn’t be surprised if we got something from spurs
 

Am I crazy for thinking 5th isn’t impossible if spurs and united choke a bit and we pick up 18 points off the easy matches above and maybe 1-3 off the others. 
 

 

spurs play arsenal, liverpool, west ham and us. Of those only arsenal is a home match for them. 
 

Divided play liverpool arsenal Chelsea and us. 
 

we would have to be near perfect but stranger things have happened. 

 

 

 

5th? More chance of me getting a threesome with the Minogue sisters ffs.

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4 hours ago, Beth said:

5th? More chance of me getting a threesome with the Minogue sisters ffs.


no clue who those people are but you are really doubting yourself if you think it’s less likely than spurs and man Utd dropping off at the end of the season. We also play both of them so there are some potential 6 point matches there. 
 

it’s unlikely but it isn’t impossible. We have an incredibly easy list of fixtures 

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10 hours ago, Groundhog63 said:

 

This kind of whacky, er is it optimism or hubris, is what gets people shouting for Eddie's head when at least one of those fixtures defaults to reasonable expectations. A draw, for instance 😂😂😂😏


Honestly never understood the people shouting for Eddie’s head. Makes zero sense to me. Fine to criticize some of his decision but sacking a a manger of his quality after a season like this would be so dumb. 

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1 hour ago, Sufi said:


no clue who those people are but you are really doubting yourself if you think it’s less likely than spurs and man Utd dropping off at the end of the season. We also play both of them so there are some potential 6 point matches there. 
 

it’s unlikely but it isn’t impossible. We have an incredibly easy list of fixtures 

Even if we beat Spurs we're still 10 points behind them & they have West Ham, Forest, Burnley and Sheff Utd in their remaining fixtures. 

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We're between 4/1 and 9/2 to finish top 6, where we are currently 5 points behind. I don't see any 'top 5' odds (which I'm quite surprised about with that likely being CL football), but given we're a further 8 points adrift, and extremely inconsistent, I'd imagine it would be nearer 40/1. 

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1 hour ago, Keegans Export said:

Even if we beat Spurs we're still 10 points behind them & they have West Ham, Forest, Burnley and Sheff Utd in their remaining fixtures. 

That’s true. West ham can be good. Forest can but they are inconsistent. I agree that it’s extremely unlikely but there are like 27 points to play for. They also have 3-4 tricky fixtures in the mix. 
 

I will revisit this thread if we go on a run of wins and spurs drop some points. Maybe then it will be something to consider as a possibility but yeah it’s looking like a prayer right now 

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1 hour ago, Paullow said:

We're between 4/1 and 9/2 to finish top 6, where we are currently 5 points behind. I don't see any 'top 5' odds (which I'm quite surprised about with that likely being CL football), but given we're a further 8 points adrift, and extremely inconsistent, I'd imagine it would be nearer 40/1. 

I manage odds for a living. Some books will offer you odds on any outcome. We typically use decimal format here in North America but I’d guess something like 81.00. There is a hashtag for betway where they will create odds for you if you tag them on Twitter. Just don’t tell Tonali or Toney about this 

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Finishing 7th, with all of the shit that's been going on for the last 6 months, would be pretty incredible tbh. At the start of the season it would have been about par but considering all of the injuries, insane cup draws and other random shit it's about a good as we could possibly have hoped for. It's been fucking relentless from September onwards

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Even just contemplating 5th is setting yourself up for disappointment. Even if you gave us 70 points right now we'd probably fall short and, as fun as it is, there's no chance we're winning every game 3-2 or 4-3.

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In the last 9 seasons, 63 points would be enough for 6th place in all of those seasons (the highest point total of a 7th place team is 62 points). We have the best goal difference of those around us, so 62 would likely do it. To get there, we would need 19 points from 9 matches. Not impossible, but not much margin for error (especially with 5 of the 9 games being away, and our injury situation).

 

 

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No doubt. A handful of highs, some fairly big lows. A lot of things that are hard to fully understand and the worst injury crisis in the history of top level football 

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3 hours ago, gbandit said:

No doubt. A handful of highs, some fairly big lows. A lot of things that are hard to fully understand and the worst injury crisis in the history of top level football 

Yup. AND our big money signing suspended for a year for gambling. Unbelievably bad luck. That insane VAR decision against psg sums up our entire season. “What the fuck?!” 

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Win this today and sixth feels like a real possibility. Fifth feels a bit out of reach unless Villa takes a massive nose dive. Spurs seem like they're only going to go one way.

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Still 7th if Spurs win tonight, but still, our injuries are gonna cost us points in these remaining games. What do we need for 8th to be a European spot? We need two of these don't we? One to knock it to 7th then another for 8th?

 

- Top 6/7 team wins FA Cup

- Top 6/7 team wins EL

- Top 6/7  team wins ECL

- 5th becomes a CL spot

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