The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Well that’s the thing isn’t it… our draws have been missed wins rather than salvaged losses. Which would suggest it’s more likely to go positive than not. 

[Lush Vlad]

3 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Well that’s the thing isn’t it… our draws have been missed wins rather than salvaged losses. Which would suggest it’s more likely to go positive than not. 

I agree. I suppose my point I badly worded was that drawing too many can really hinder you. As it did for Mark Hughes at City. 

 

I know it’s a good base to build from being unbeaten. But if my quick maths are correct. 2 wins and 2 losses gets you more points than 4 draws. 
 

I wonder if we might go a bit more expansive in some games to try and force the issue a bit more or look at a slight tweak in formation. As it does feel like goals and creativity are starting to stutter a bit. 
 

I dunno. Just thinking out loud, really. Hard to criticise or say we should be changing too much when you look at where we are and how we are overachieving. 

[HaydnNUFC]

12 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:

I agree. I suppose my point I badly worded was that drawing too many can really hinder you. As it did for Mark Hughes at City. 

 

I know it’s a good base to build from being unbeaten. But if my quick maths are correct. 2 wins and 2 losses gets you more points than 4 draws. 
 

I wonder if we might go a bit more expansive in some games to try and force the issue a bit more or look at a slight tweak in formation. As it does feel like goals and creativity are starting to stutter a bit. 
 

I dunno. Just thinking out loud, really. Hard to criticise or say we should be changing too much when you look at where we are and how we are overachieving. 

 

We're still creating chances, like. Think we've only managed something like 4 or 5 open play goals from ~10xG since we battered Leicester on Boxing Day. They're just being spurned; Joelinton, Wilson and Longstaff being the main culprits for that. Wood v Leeds too. It's why I want to see Isak in the starting XI despite that Wilson got back amongst the goals on Saturday. Think Isak and ASM will link up really well together as was seen against Southampton at St. Mary's.

 

It's why I think, similar to back in September, we're building up to just totally battering someone soon. 

[Lush Vlad]

32 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

 

We're still creating chances, like. Think we've only managed something like 4 or 5 open play goals from ~10xG since we battered Leicester on Boxing Day. They're just being spurned; Joelinton, Wilson and Longstaff being the main culprits for that. Wood v Leeds too. It's why I want to see Isak in the starting XI despite that Wilson got back amongst the goals on Saturday. Think Isak and ASM will link up really well together as was seen against Southampton at St. Mary's.

 

It's why I think, similar to back in September, we're building up to just totally battering someone soon. 

 

 

Chimes with this. That has just popped up on my Twitter. 
 

Probably selective memory from me. But it’s only the Leeds game and Southampton away in the cup. Where it has felt like we have missed loads of decent chances and should have scored a good 2-3. 
 

Although I was aware our xG had still been great and we’d been getting plenty of shots off. Until West Ham at the weekend. 

[HaydnNUFC]

2 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:

 

 

Chimes with this. That has just popped up on my Twitter. 
 

Probably selective memory from me. But it’s only the Leeds game and Southampton away in the cup. Where it has felt like we have missed loads of decent chances and should have scored a good 2-3. 
 

Although I was aware our xG had still been great and we’d been getting plenty of shots off. Until West Ham at the weekend. 

 

Leicester in the cup as well, should've been ahead well before Burn's goal. Fulham at home, we should've been ahead in the first half. Even against West Ham, Wilson should've gotten at least a brace whether that's the 1v1 he got tackled for or the free header after that. West Ham looked only interested in a point during the 2nd half and their goal was shit, the ball bouncing in the 6 yard box from a corner is really poor. 

 

I get that at times we've looked a bit labourious in possession, the first half against West Ham and at times away at Palace but we're still creating opportunities which we have to use better. Isak I hope will sort that out, but he needs to get into a starting lineup first.

[Holloway]

the fact there's no clear favourite for 3rd place fills me with optimism, combined with our leap in exciting options upfront. And all bar man city and chelsea to come to our place. It's beautifully poised

[Optimistic Nut]

1 minute ago, Holloway said:

the fact there's no clear favourite for 3rd place fills me with optimism, combined with our leap in exciting options upfront. And all bar man city and chelsea to come to our place. It's beautifully poised

 

Every time it looks like they're about to pull away, something like last night happens. Just need to keep two places up for grabs for as long as possible.

[Lush Vlad]

21 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

 

Leicester in the cup as well, should've been ahead well before Burn's goal. Fulham at home, we should've been ahead in the first half. Even against West Ham, Wilson should've gotten at least a brace whether that's the 1v1 he got tackled for or the free header after that. West Ham looked only interested in a point during the 2nd half and their goal was shit, the ball bouncing in the 6 yard box from a corner is really poor. 

 

I get that at times we've looked a bit labourious in possession, the first half against West Ham and at times away at Palace but we're still creating opportunities which we have to use better. Isak I hope will sort that out, but he needs to get into a starting lineup first.

Leicester, yeah. That was daft how many we wasted early on. 
 

I’ve not gone back through and checked on the individual xG for each chance or anything like that. But I do feel like whenever we have a half decent opening or chance. We look back at it like it was an absolute sitter and it gets worse and worse as a miss. The longer time goes on. 
 

Like the Fulham game. The second Wilson chance he should probably score. But he creates it out of nothing. Some of the headers that WE HAVE TO BE DOING BETTER WITH (Hinchcliffe™️) are not necessarily easy chances. 
 

Not so much this season against us. Because we don’t let teams create much. But I’m sure other club’s forums are full of fans talking about missed chances and how they should have scored more. Seems a general football fan thing, to me. 

[HaydnNUFC]

2 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:

Leicester, yeah. That was daft how many we wasted early on. 
 

I’ve not gone back through and checked on the individual xG for each chance or anything like that. But I do feel like whenever we have a half decent opening or chance. We look back at it like it was an absolute sitter and it gets worse and worse as a miss. The longer time goes on. 
 

Like the Fulham game. The second Wilson chance he should probably score. But he creates it out of nothing. Some of the headers that WE HAVE TO BE DOING BETTER WITH (Hinchcliffe™️) are not necessarily easy chances. 
 

Not so much this season against us. Because we don’t let teams create much. But I’m sure other club’s forums are full of fans talking about missed chances and how they should have scored more. Seems a general football fan thing, to me. 

 

Only Leicester have created multiple chances against us in a game from memory, the Daka and 2 Vardy missed chances in the cup game even though we should've been winning by more than we were when those Vardy chances happened. But West Ham's only clear cut opportunity was their goal, Palace's the Pope save, Southampton the Che Adams miss in the first leg. Their goal up here was some strike tbf but that come from nowt, no one was expecting him to hit that from there. Fulham had a pen but even if Mitrovic didn't double kick it I reckon Pope saves it, given where Mitrovic was trying to place the pen and where Pope was diving.

 

Even if they aren't easy chances, which they may well not be, we're still creating stuff. We've just hit a dry spot in front of goal recently, which is why I reckon we should freshen it up a bit and put the guy who we spent £60m on to score goals on the pitch from the start in games more often. Him and ASM changed that first leg at Southampton when it was starting to look a bit leggy and grim. 

[Lush Vlad]

I’m not on about against us. I even mention how we don’t concede many chances.
 

I am meaning fans in general. It seems like they go back over their games, look at 3 chances and think they should have scored 2 and won the game. 
 

Certainly like that on here at times. I’m guilty of it. It’s the same down the pub and all. 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Lush Vlad

[Colos Short and Curlies]

I have a feeling a team will win 15 of the remaining 17/18 games.

 

whether it’s one of the current top 4, spurs Liverpool or Chelsea I don’t know but one will

[Likelylad]

Just watching the overlap and judging  how off the ball Neville’s predictions have been this season. I think him saying we’ll drop off this season is nothing but a good omen. 

[HaydnNUFC]

2 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:

I’m not on about against us. I even mention how we don’t concede many chances.
 

I am meaning fans in general. It seems like they go back over their games, look at 3 chances and think they should have scored 2 and won the game. 
 

Certainly like that on here at times. I’m guilty of it. It’s the same down the pub and all. 

 

 

 

 

Maybe I am too but we're underperforming our xG and that checks out with the eye test imo.

[Lush Vlad]

Just out of interest. Were we over-performing it earlier in the season? I know Miggy was, massively. Seemed like we scored a fair few worldies and all. So imagine it has flip flopped a bit now. 
 

Although I did read we are massively under when it comes to set piece xG. So hopefully we can get a few of them in the net soon. 

[Hanshithispantz]

3 points from Man City, Wolves, Liverpool & Palace was ridiculously harsh before Miggy started banging in worldies.

 

As fortunate as we are for that run it did feel like those kinds of results were on the cards. I get the same feeling now, West Ham aside we’ve been playing well, it’s only a matter of time before it clicks again up top.

[The Fountain]

Top 4 is a realistic possibility.If anybody said that this time last year they'd be taken away. It's been a fantastic season so far hopefully it'll continue to be. Alternatively it might go tits up.

[Optimistic Nut]

Over halfway and 3rd place is in our hands.

[GWN]

Get our shit together and we can win this league. I shit you not 

[BonesJones]

Pisses me off more than I'd like to admit that a team with only 2 more wins than us and 7 more losses is below us in 5th.

 

 

[gbandit]

Struggling to see how we keep our position with our style of high press play given the limitations of our squad. I think we’ll remain tough to beat but we’re not going to win loads on the bounce from here on out I don’t imagine 

[ilikenewcastle]

The amount of times we have a disappointing result but strengthen our position in the Top 4 is crazy. I still think Spurs will edge it but I definitely back us to stay in the fight and I feel quietly confident of at least Top 6 and Europa.

 

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by ilikenewcastle

[Shak]

Think we'll be right in this until the last few games.

 

We're definitely having a wobble, setup needs a bit of a tweak.

 

However, all the other teams in the race for 4th (assuming Man U keep it together and stay top four, which isn't a sure thing but seems likely ATM) are pretty badly flawed and I'd be very surprised to see any of them go on a tear.

[Kid Icarus]

The frustration for me is that Spurs have been absolutely shocking all season and should be where Chelsea and Liverpool are based on their performances. Them having Kane has kept them in touching distance of 4th and if we continue to look knackered, they (and Brighton) will be right there.

 

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Kid Icarus

[SUPERTOON]

I’d have Spurs and Brighton to finish above us, not a slight on us either. I just think spurs attacking players will see them above us, and I think Brighton are a better side than us currently.

[Anderson]

Probably back to thinking we'll more likely than not miss out on this for the first time in a while. We were flying up until Boxing Day, but since we've only won 1 in 6, scoring just 3 in the league. Despite being unbeaten, that's clearly not going to be enough if we don't turn a corner. That said, still a phenomenal effort from the lads to even still be in contention, it's just clearly the lack of squad depth coming to hinder us which was always likely. The only saving graces will be lack of fixture congestion once the LC is done, Bruno coming back refreshed, and the fact nobody as of yet has managed to capitalise on us dropping points.