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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)


Rich

The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

610 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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Yup. Hammers have some big matches coming up. Our game in hand is huge. Goal difference also. 
 

I hope they advance in Europe and lose in the final. I want their schedule to be as ridiculous as possible and I can see them getting exhausted towards the end of the season or even resting 1-2 players for matches like Palace or Luton. They could potentially play 5 extra matches in Europe. Although obviously very unlikely for them to get past Leverkusen. 
 

3 matches in 7 days coming up for them from 11th to the 18th. Will be interesting to see how they look coming out of that. 


 

 

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3 minutes ago, TRC said:

Need 16 points from 8 games to get Europa. Should have been 14.


Five-ish wins out of eight doesn’t seem impossible, especially with how the end of the season throws up some wild results, but you’re right it should be four-ish wins and a couple of draws after today. 

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We need to essentially beat Palace, Burnley, Sheff United, Fulham, Brentford and not lose to Brighton and we get 7th and Europa.

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For context, we took 12 points from our last eight games (three wins, three draws) - and I'd say that the next eight are roughly equivalent.

 

It is probably the teams coming up behind us that we need to be more worried about than WHU, in all honesty, and we don't actually know how many points are needed for 7th yet.

 

I still think we might just do it - though not if the injuries continue ...

 

 

Edited by TheBrownBottle

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I'm usually really positive but if we're going to go into another one of these periods where we have 11 or 12 decent players to choose from each game then we'll struggle to pick up the points we'd expect. You need a squad to keep the starting lineup fresh, to switch things tactically in game, to see out games. 

 

Fed up with the season now tbh, can't seem to catch a break. Can't see us achieving much consistency til we have at least 14 or 15 proper players to share the workload, for a prolonged period. 

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30 minutes ago, Interpolic said:

I'm usually really positive but if we're going to go into another one of these periods where we have 11 or 12 decent players to choose from each game then we'll struggle to pick up the points we'd expect. You need a squad to keep the starting lineup fresh, to switch things tactically in game, to see out games. 

 

Fed up with the season now tbh, can't seem to catch a break. Can't see us achieving much consistency til we have at least 14 or 15 proper players to share the workload, for a prolonged period. 

 

Agreed. regardless of the result tonight, I would have been confident of finishing in the European slots if we had a semblance of a squad. And when you look at the injury list, outside of maybe trippier coming back at the end of the month, everyone else will miss most of the remainder of the games. I just dont think we have the depth to hold on. Thats all assuming we stay injury free the rest of the way as well. In reality, we are a hamstring pull away from having to play Dummett/Krafth/Ritchie major minutes the rest of the way.

 

The only silver lining is we have a very reasonable set of fixtures the rest of the way, and none of our competitors look to be picking up any form. 

 

West Ham have Europe and look to be losing steam the last few months.

Manu look awful and are only as high as they are due to some very lucky results.

Brighton have a very difficult run in and look like they lack the cutting edge from the teams of their last few years.

Wolves are dealing with major injuries to their most important attacking players.

Chelsea are Chelsea.... up and down as they've been all season.

 

We can do it, but its going to be a grind. Shame these injuries have ruined our season

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I don’t think we’ll make Europe now. You have to remember that some of our games will be rearranged midweek games. We are not in the position to play 3 times in a week with what we have left. If our injuries from the West Ham game hold up, that will also take its toll.

 

I guess the encouraging thing is that despite having these injuries, and being left with players who probably aren’t even Championship quality, we have went into the final run in of games fighting for a European place.

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On 01/04/2024 at 21:28, gbandit said:

No doubt. A handful of highs, some fairly big lows. A lot of things that are hard to fully understand and the worst injury crisis in the history of top level football 

A true black and white rollercoaster of a season! 

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I'm normally very optimistic about us under Howe and will always view this season overall as a form of triumph over extreme adversity, but my hopes of Europe took a massive blow after last night.

 

You can’t let a draw even be possible in matches like that and have serious ambitions for Europe imo. If we get there it'll need our old friend chaos to get involved.

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There's slim chance of us finishing 6th tbh. You'd need a fairly big turnaround in form and we have even less players than before. We've got players starting for us that wouldnt get into most PL first XI's. 

 

7th is on the cards but I dont have much confidence in us beating anyone at the minute. We simply aren't the same team in personnel or style. Cant defend and we dont press like we used to, probably because of the injuries. Hope we make a go of it and finish 7th but I still think its a tough ask. 

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3 minutes ago, Doctor Zaius said:

There's slim chance of us finishing 6th tbh. You'd need a fairly big turnaround in form and we have even less players than before. We've got players starting for us that wouldnt get into most PL first XI's. 

 

7th is on the cards but I dont have much confidence in us beating anyone at the minute. We simply aren't the same team in personnel or style. Cant defend and we dont press like we used to, probably because of the injuries. Hope we make a go of it and finish 7th but I still think its a tough ask. 

I retain a bit of optimism with the thought of a fully match fit trio of Isak, Gordon and Barnes. They can individually and collectively create and finish to win us games. We’ll need Anderson and Hall to stay fit and step-up, plus Tino and Miggy back and we just might nick enough points.  

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32 minutes ago, Doctor Zaius said:

There's slim chance of us finishing 6th tbh. You'd need a fairly big turnaround in form and we have even less players than before. We've got players starting for us that wouldnt get into most PL first XI's. 

 

7th is on the cards but I dont have much confidence in us beating anyone at the minute. We simply aren't the same team in personnel or style. Cant defend and we dont press like we used to, probably because of the injuries. Hope we make a go of it and finish 7th but I still think its a tough ask. 

 

Even 7th seems like it'll be difficult now.  Not purely based on last night, although that hardly helped.  But the latest round of injuries has just robbed us of decent starters and also any meaningful bench options.  

 

With Lascelles, Tino, Almiron out and Trippier seeming like he's had a setback.  It's looking like a first team squad of what?  14, including Karius, for the next month or so?  The Man U game being postponed might help us.  Just hope we can get at least Trippier back for Palace or Sheff Utd.  

 

So tight from 7th down to Fulham in 13th.  Only 6 points in it and the game against Fulham now looks massive after those 2 points dropped.

 

 

Edited by Lush Vlad

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Just had a close look at our results this season and where the hotspots were in terms of lost points. December was the critical month.We played 8 games. Two important cup defeats (AC Milan at home and Chelsea LCQF), and losses to Forest and Luton (remaining results decent/or as expected). An extra four points in that month and we’d still be confident of a European place next season. 
We lost Pope in the first game of that month and we only used 17 players. Details/minutiae hidden.

Spoiler

The 17 include:

four appearances from Ritchie three from Hall
Isak appeared in four games (only two full games).

Wilson in seven (5 full games) 

Lascelles appeared in 7 (6 full games).

Miley appeared in seven games.

Joelinton in five (4 full games). 
Bruno, Gordon, Miggy, Schar pretty much ran themselves into the ground/had the most minutes. 

 

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31 minutes ago, Paully said:

6 points from 24 from Luton, Forest, Everton and Bournemouth - mental that

Stands out how poorly we’ve done against teams we’d be expected to beat when compare to how other’s have done. Tier is based on where the opponents finished last year (so Tier 4 is three promoted sides plus NF and Eve).

 

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We’ve only taken 11 points from 8 games against supposedly worst sides in the league. Man Utd have 24 from 9, Villa 23 from 10, and Spurs 16 from 6 games. 

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Four wins and a couple of draws needed from the last eight games to get 7th.

 

Beat Brighton and Sheff Utd at home, draw with Spurs.

 

Beat Burnley away, and a win and a draw from the Fulham/Palace/Brentford trio. Man U is a write off imo.

 

Hard but not impossible.

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1 hour ago, Paully said:

6 points from 24 from Luton, Forest, Everton and Bournemouth - mental that

Appalling in truth, even accounting for some of the horrific injuries and fatigue 

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11 minutes ago, Beth said:

Man U is a write off imo.

 

Martinez and Lindelof just ruled out for a month. It wouldn't be a write off for Gateshead.

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