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FWIW id rather we made a phone call to try and get Ivan Toney back over here and bring in a younger potential filled striker so we improve the room in general. Its a world cup year so if he was returning this could be the time.

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1 minute ago, sushimonster85 said:

 

Let's not use moneyball talk, it really doesn't apply to football. 

 

No? it just applies to every other sport then

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It doesn't apply to anywhere close to every sport. It applies extremely well to more 'static' sports like baseball that can be broken down more easily into pure numbers. There's a pitcher, and the guy at bat. He has an on base percentage, he has a success rate against fast balls, curve balls etc.

 

It doesn't work in sports like football, rugby etc. Where a teams overall style of play vastly differ, and therefore a certain player who is successful in one team can be a total dud in another.

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4 minutes ago, sushimonster85 said:

It doesn't apply to anywhere close to every sport. It applies extremely well to more 'static' sports like baseball that can be broken down more easily into pure numbers. There's a pitcher, and the guy at bat. He has an on base percentage, he has a success rate against fast balls, curve balls etc.

 

It doesn't work in sports like football, rugby etc. Where a teams overall style of play vastly differ, and therefore a certain player who is successful in one team can be a total dud in another.

 

That's just not true. Analytics already dominate basketball (where there are less players, but they are all constantly making sudden complex movements) and American football. 

 

It takes more time and effort to develop analytic models for "non-static" sports, because you need expensive position tracking software to break down game states into data, and there are more variables overall. But once you've gotten a functioning model and useable data, the process of deriving information is not particularly more complex.

 

(Also, this debate is basically over anyway. Every club in Europe now uses analytics to some extent). 

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15 minutes ago, Tonalis Bookie said:

FWIW id rather we made a phone call to try and get Ivan Toney back over here and bring in a younger potential filled striker so we improve the room in general. Its a world cup year so if he was returning this could be the time.

 

He's not been linked with a move away at all (that I've seen), very strange imo.

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2 minutes ago, oldtype said:

 

That's just not true. Analytics already dominate basketball (where there are less players, but they are all constantly making sudden complex movements) and American football. 

 

It takes more time and effort to develop analytic models for "non-static" sports, because you need expensive position tracking software to break down game states into data, and there are more variables overall. But once you've gotten a functioning model and useable data, the process of deriving information is not particularly more complex.

 

(Also, this debate is basically over anyway. Every club in Europe now uses analytics to some extent). 

 

I'm not talking about analytics, I'm talking about the moneyball 'replacing players in the aggregate' talk that doesn't apply football. The nature of football you can't look at the method of bringing in 2 players to make up one you're losing 'in the aggregate'. 

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Just now, sushimonster85 said:

 

I'm not talking about analytics, I'm talking about the moneyball 'replacing players in the aggregate' talk that doesn't apply football. The nature of football you can't look at the method of bringing in 2 players to make up one you're losing 'in the aggregate'. 

You can most certainly make the team better overall by replacing one expensive player with two cheaper ones who are better in the aggregate :lol: what are you even talking about. That's not even analytics clubs have been doing that for ages.

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13 minutes ago, Turnbull2000 said:

Options off the bench by mid-February after injuries take it's toll on our puny squad 

 

Dubravka

Ruddy

Vlachodimos

Gillespie

Ramsale

Trippier

Willock

Krafth

Osula

 

Game changing :fwap: 

Maybe if we play all 6 keepers at once in goal we will clean sheet our way to lower midtable

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16 minutes ago, oldtype said:

You can most certainly make the team better overall by replacing one expensive player with two cheaper ones who are better in the aggregate :lol: what are you even talking about. That's not even analytics clubs have been doing that for ages.

 

You can't in sport like football. Like, great. You've signed two players to replace that one in the aggregate. But what about the other player you're going to have to drop to make space for that second player. And the knock on effect all this has in the rest of the team. 

 

You can talk about 'replacing players in the aggregate' in baseball as, aside from the pitcher, and first base, all you have to really think about in the Moneyball example is their on base percentage. 

 

I'm absolutely not saying data/analytics play a massive role in sport in general. But you can't talk about replacing one player with multiple in the aggregate in sports like football. 

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3 minutes ago, sushimonster85 said:

 

You can't in sport like football. Like, great. You've signed two players to replace that one in the aggregate. But what about the other player you're going to have to drop to make space for that second player. And the knock on effect all this has in the rest of the team. 

 

You can talk about 'replacing players in the aggregate' in baseball as, aside from the pitcher, and first base, all you have to really think about in the Moneyball example is their on base percentage. 

 

I'm absolutely not saying data/analytics play a massive role in sport in general. But you can't talk about replacing one player with multiple in the aggregate in sports like football. 

 

But.. why? PSG literally just sold Mbappe, replaced him with a bunch of cheaper players, and won the champions league.

 

I think the point you're actually trying to make is that there's not a catchall stat in Football like OBP where it literally does not matter if you get it in one player or spread over multiple players. (The breakthrough in that moneyball scene was actually the identification of OBP as a catchall metric, not the idea of "replacing players in the aggregate.") Which is fair enough, but that doesn't mean you can't get better after selling your best player, nor does it mean you can't develop more complex models to anticipate the impact of replacing your best players with two or more players. In fact, somebody at the club is probably doing exactly that with Isak right now.

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Hopefully we can still deliver upgrades across the squad, aside from Isak, which is impossible. Would love to get Wissa sorted and settle the nerves over that position just a little bit.

 

Almiron > Elanga             

Dúbravka > Ramsdale      

Wilson > Wissa               

Isak > Sesko                    🟥🟥

Longstaff > ?                   

Kelly > ?                           

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1. Sign Wissa to replace Wilson.

2. Either retain Isak or replace him.

3. Sign an additional CB to account for injuries and aging.

 

This is all we really need to do in order to avert complete disaster. There's a whole month left and it seems very doable. 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, oldtype said:

1. Sign Wissa to replace Wilson.

2. Either retain Isak or replace him.

3. Sign an additional CB to account for injuries and aging.

 

This is all we really need to do in order to avert complete disaster. There's a whole month left and it seems very doable. 

 

 

 

We wouldn't have a complete disaster if we didn't sign anyone else tbf. It'd just be another intensely frustrating season given the top quality manager we have and the handful of class players we've got (albeit we'd be keeping Ng fingers crossed they all stayed fit)

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