stozo

I’m going to sleep and dreaming of Europe (and in my dreams Bruno lifts the Champions League). Goodnight my friend.

I didn’t even watch the match tonight but having spent a very many hours watching messrs Xisco, Rivière, de Jong et al. play for Newcastle over very many years I am willing to bet that Bruno in a 2-1 home win against a mid-table side was not ‘crap’.

After careful reflection I’ll give Bruno a pass on tonight after scoring the winner in our last PL game and then becoming the first Captain to lift a domestic trophy on 70 years.

Absolutely chuffed for the bloke.

Apologies, I meant domestic trophy!

I'm happy to take that risk. I've seen us win 432 Premier League games so far - but not seen us win a trophy yet. I can wait an extra week or two for win number 433 in the Premier League, if it gets us our first trophy in 70 years.

Ideal XI: Pope, Trippier, Krafth, Burn, Targett, Miley, Longstaff, Willock, Osula, Barnes and Wilson. It won't happen but personally I'd gamble on giving Schar, Botman, Tino, Bruno, Tonali, Joelinton, Murphy and Isak the week off in the hope they'll be really fresh for the cup final.

You've got to presume we won't go up from here but lots to play for from a broader table perspective. And we're already at the stage where you assume we are going to very likely finish above three sides (Sheff U, Blackburn and Southampton) who were already well established in this division. Loads still to work on in terms of the progression of the team but I think we can pleased we've done a decent job this year - and a bright future ahead.

The problem is though that with PSR the ramifications of getting into Europe are not huge. Conference League generates only low millions, Europe League a bit better but really to feel a positive financial impact you need Champions League. So the question becomes do you gamble for the Champions League and accept you're in a mess if you miss, or be more conservative and see how the season plays out. It seems we've decided the latter, and after the mess we got ourselves in last Summer, I am OK with that.

I mean the logical move (impact on this season aside) is both. The money for Duran is flat out insane and this is the last chance they’ll get to get £50m+ for Watkins. The money that would release for Villa to spend in the Summer would be pretty exciting for them.

Have said it before in this thread but the pool of clubs who are professional & have a good standard of coaching in countries where he’d qualify for a work permit is very small.

Who knows what the case is but I actually suspect he'll happily move for the right deal. Sadly for us, to avoid booking a PSR loss that means finding someone to pay circa. £16m (assuming he's amortised some of his fee over the half season) to buy him. And if he doesn't fancy Saudi (which it sounds like he doesn't) then we are not getting that from anyone else. Which means he'll holdout for the next 6 months and then we'll likely have to loan him somewhere (probably covering a % of his wages) to cut our losses in a way that doesn't harm out PSR position too much. He'll be at Panathinaikos or back in Portugal in the Summer, it's just we'll have a problem on our hands for the next 2/3 years. But we made our PSR bed, and now we are lying in it.

The problem is when you get under 24 hours from breaching FFP and getting a points deduction, you have no negotiating power. Forest obviously knew he was a dud and saw us as their ticket to get rid of him.

I’ll take the other side and say we should win easily today. Bournemouth are not far off a Spurs level injury crisis, to the point where Jebbison (who has been recalled from his Sheffield United loan) will probably be the only outfield player on the bench who you can call senior (unless there is a surprise return). They only made two subs in the week (one of which was forced) and I imagine they’ll fade in the second half (as they did against Chelsea).

9 points off top if we win tomorrow, followed by a home game and playing the bottom side. Are we...in the title race?...

I could be putting two and two together and getting five - but it wouldn't stun me if there was a £500k-£1m sort of number needed to be raised to facilitate a bit of PSR headroom which Dubravka's sale was needed to fill and now that looks unlikely we are looking at other options. Presumably a Kelly loan would raise around that figure.

The Times say nobody has been charged.

Not how amortisation works in this case sadly. If we sell at a loss, the full loss has to be booked this year rather than being spread over future years.

I'd be very surprised if any of them make the squad. I think the best we can hope for in terms of 'young talent' is Osula and Miley starting. Howe will rotate but will still really want to win, so I think the bench will be packed with the cavalry of the 'first XI' who will be brought on circa. 60-70 minutes in if we are in the shit. FWIW I think the XI will be: Odysseas, Trippier, Schar, Kelly, Targett, Longstaff, Miley, Willock, Almiron, Barnes and Osula. Subs: Dubravka, Krafth, Burn, Hall/Livramento, Tonali, Bruno, Joelinton, Murphy, Gordon. The only differences to that I could foresee is Howe going stronger at LB and in midfield - by possibly starting Hall or doing Trippier on left and Krafth on the right, and then for the midfield playing either Bruno or Joelinton instead of Miley.

Last January it was 'If we sell Trippier we'll have nobody to play RB', so we kept him. And look where that led us in the Summer. Kieran Trippier is now an aging, backup right back and Yankuba Minteh is at Brighton with a good decade ahead of him. Dubravka has been a great servant but in a world where all our business is dictated by PSR, this is 100% the right move.

From a brief look at Twitter, the signs are not promising for more game time at Willem any time soon. He played the full match as they got knocked out the Dutch Cup by a third tier Dutch side, and he is getting an absolute pasting for his performance from the Willem fans on Twitter. But as @SAK says, this his first season outside Serbia and first season playing in a top division, so hopefully this is a learning curve and the game time he does get enables him to get a work permit.

Can’t figure out how to embed on my phone but a Saudi sports media outlet on Twitter seems to be saying Dubravka is going to Al-Shabab in January.

I think he probably meant final good contract. If he signs a five year deal, he'll be 32 when it expires - so he won't be getting another lengthy deal at that point.

I mean I think this is a fundamental misunderstanding of the Pivas situation. He’s come from the Serbian Second Division, so you are incredibly restricted on loan options. The job is get him into a league of a decent standard and see if they think he has any ability. If you want guaranteed minutes, then you are probably sending him to a league where the coaching standard is far lower (not good for him) and it’s harder to assess where his talent level is (not good for us). You can’t even loan him to Gateshead as he can’t get a work permit - and the same applies in a number of European countries, hence why he’s likely gone to the Netherlands where it is far easier to get a permit. In all likelihood, Pivas is probably a signing made based on something that showed up in numbers and/or tape that looked interesting and this is effectively a 1/2 year test to see if that holds up in a league where the standard is far higher.

Comments like this that slag off parts of the club slightly irk me. Where would you have loaned him? He’s ineligible for work permits in most European countries so it’s a bloody tough job finding a club (a) that will sign a player who has played only in the Serbian second division (b) has a decent enough standard of football that might allow us to learn something about whether he is any good and (c) has a coaching set up that may make him better.