I think the team in 17th place this season will need about 38 or 39 points. That's 10 wins and 8/9 draws, or 11 wins and 5/6 draws... and so on - you can go back the other way and say 9 wins x draws or even further back - but whatever the makeup of these points, I think we'll get them and quite possibly a few more on top.
I think we'll get about 43 points this season.
This post will almost certainly make me look either brilliant or terribly foolish come May, guess we'll see.