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Relegationometer

Yorkie

by Yorkie
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Lush Vlad

Lush Vlad

Posted
Posted

You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier.

 

Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's f***ing common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds!

 

Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV.

 

I don't have a huge problem with the rest of what you've put.  But this printing money thing, is absurd?  How is it printing money, when it could quite clearly lose and there is a fairly substantial risk involved?  It's not like it's a bet to lay and you're making 2-3 points in the process.  That's printing money. 

 

As for a punt on a losing 1/5 shot, still being a good bet.  I beg to differ.  IMO, betting is about value, as much as anything.  I would rather stake small, on better odds.  I'm rarely tempted by a single bet on one lower than evens.  I suppose it depends what type of punter you are? The best bet I have had, was a £1 reverse forecast in the 100 Guineas.  20/1, beating a 16/1.  Returned about £250 odd.  I've been burnt plenty of times, betting big on shorter priced favs.  I haven't immediately thought afterwards "oh well.  In my head, I fancied that to win.  So it's a good bet."  :lol:

 

If you follow tipping and naps tables, where a £1 level stakes is used.  Then the favourite often yields a lot of wins, but with a low or minus profit.  Obviously, I'm not saying you'll always bet on the fav.  But it just shows that betting on short priced things, that you think will win, isn't exactly a system that will win you lots of money. 

 

It's not an exact science and there are to many variables, to break it down as simply as you have.  I don't call fancying something to win at short odds, then watching it get turned over and losing, a good bet.  But maybe that's just me?

 

Anyway.  Back on topic.  I'm at a 7 (70%) and we are s*** at football and I think, we will most probably go down. 

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cp40

cp40

Posted
Posted

We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise

 

People not understanding the number in this thread has been a pet hate of mine for seasons now. 6 means people think we are 60% likely to go down, that's not very confident. You can get 2.25-2.32 from the bookies that we go down. The 7-10 camp should put all their savings on that and print money.

 

I'm at a 7.  So apparently, I think there is a 70% chance we'll go down.  According to you, I should go and put thousands of pounds on us getting relegated at around 5/4.  How is the terrible tipping line business?  You winning much? :lol:

 

I'll keep my money in the bank, cheers. 

 

Ooh, look at Richie Rich here. To be honest I don't know how much money you have in the bank but it's poor form to openly brag about it.

 

5/4 needs about 45% probability, that's terrible value for you with your 70% expectancy? Guaranteed to be the bet of your life, no matter the outcome. For the other questions, I don't have a tipping line business or bet much outside some major events. You win some and you lose some. I hope you don't bet much.

 

(Hope I'm not getting whooshed, your post was so tragic that I wouldn't know what to bet on at 5/4.)

You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier.

 

Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's fucking common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds!

 

Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV.

You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier.

 

Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's f***ing common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds!

 

Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV.

 

I don't have a huge problem with the rest of what you've put.  But this printing money thing, is absurd?  How is it printing money, when it could quite clearly lose and there is a fairly substantial risk involved?  It's not like it's a bet to lay and you're making 2-3 points in the process.  That's printing money. 

 

As for a punt on a losing 1/5 shot, still being a good bet.  I beg to differ.  IMO, betting is about value, as much as anything.  I would rather stake small, on better odds.  I'm rarely tempted by a single bet on one lower than evens.  I suppose it depends what type of punter you are? The best bet I have had, was a £1 reverse forecast in the 100 Guineas.  20/1, beating a 16/1.  Returned about £250 odd.  I've been burnt plenty of times, betting big on shorter priced favs.  I haven't immediately thought afterwards "oh well.  In my head, I fancied that to win.  So it's a good bet."  :lol:

 

If you follow tipping and naps tables, where a £1 level stakes is used.  Then the favourite often yields a lot of wins, but with a low or minus profit.  Obviously, I'm not saying you'll always bet on the fav.  But it just shows that betting on short priced things, that you think will win, isn't exactly a system that will win you lots of money. 

 

It's not an exact science and there are to many variables, to break it down as simply as you have.  I don't call fancying something to win at short odds, then watching it get turned over and losing, a good bet.  But maybe that's just me?

 

Anyway.  Back on topic.  I'm at a 7 (70%) and we are s*** at football and I think, we will most probably go down. 

 

 

 

jeesus

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Disco

Disco

Posted
Posted

What we really needed was it all quoted again.

 

Here you go mate:

 

We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise

 

People not understanding the number in this thread has been a pet hate of mine for seasons now. 6 means people think we are 60% likely to go down, that's not very confident. You can get 2.25-2.32 from the bookies that we go down. The 7-10 camp should put all their savings on that and print money.

 

I'm at a 7.  So apparently, I think there is a 70% chance we'll go down.  According to you, I should go and put thousands of pounds on us getting relegated at around 5/4.  How is the terrible tipping line business?  You winning much? :lol:

 

I'll keep my money in the bank, cheers. 

 

Ooh, look at Richie Rich here. To be honest I don't know how much money you have in the bank but it's poor form to openly brag about it.

 

5/4 needs about 45% probability, that's terrible value for you with your 70% expectancy? Guaranteed to be the bet of your life, no matter the outcome. For the other questions, I don't have a tipping line business or bet much outside some major events. You win some and you lose some. I hope you don't bet much.

 

(Hope I'm not getting whooshed, your post was so tragic that I wouldn't know what to bet on at 5/4.)

You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier.

 

Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's fucking common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds!

 

Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV.

You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier.

 

Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's f***ing common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds!

 

Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV.

 

I don't have a huge problem with the rest of what you've put.  But this printing money thing, is absurd?  How is it printing money, when it could quite clearly lose and there is a fairly substantial risk involved?  It's not like it's a bet to lay and you're making 2-3 points in the process.  That's printing money. 

 

As for a punt on a losing 1/5 shot, still being a good bet.  I beg to differ.  IMO, betting is about value, as much as anything.  I would rather stake small, on better odds.  I'm rarely tempted by a single bet on one lower than evens.  I suppose it depends what type of punter you are? The best bet I have had, was a £1 reverse forecast in the 100 Guineas.  20/1, beating a 16/1.  Returned about £250 odd.  I've been burnt plenty of times, betting big on shorter priced favs.  I haven't immediately thought afterwards "oh well.  In my head, I fancied that to win.  So it's a good bet."  :lol:

 

If you follow tipping and naps tables, where a £1 level stakes is used.  Then the favourite often yields a lot of wins, but with a low or minus profit.  Obviously, I'm not saying you'll always bet on the fav.  But it just shows that betting on short priced things, that you think will win, isn't exactly a system that will win you lots of money. 

 

It's not an exact science and there are to many variables, to break it down as simply as you have.  I don't call fancying something to win at short odds, then watching it get turned over and losing, a good bet.  But maybe that's just me?

 

Anyway.  Back on topic.  I'm at a 7 (70%) and we are s*** at football and I think, we will most probably go down. 

 

 

 

jeesus

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