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Relegationometer

Yorkie

by Yorkie
in Football

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Relegationometer  

332 members have voted

  1. 1. We going down then or what? 10 - aye, doomed, no hope of salvation / 5 - can't call it / 0 - nah we're sound, can't wait for next season

    • 0
      20
    • 1
      19
    • 2
      16
    • 3
      18
    • 4
      20
    • 5
      27
    • 6
      22
    • 7
      17
    • 8
      37
    • 9
      25
    • 10
      35

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AyeDubbleYoo

AyeDubbleYoo

Posted
Posted

The poll is skewed far too high like - 80% chance we'll get relegated really?

 

I mean, we are in the bottom 3 like :lol:

 

Right, so if the season ended today the chance would be 100%. But since it goes on another several months, you need to judge how we might do. Fair enough if people generally think it's that certain, I just think it's mental to think that we would go down 8 times out of 10. There's three points separating us from 12th.

 

Even if you think "we'll probably go down" that probably means about a 6.

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TRon

TRon

Posted
Posted

The poll is skewed far too high like - 80% chance we'll get relegated really?

 

I mean, we are in the bottom 3 like :lol:

 

Right, so if the season ended today the chance would be 100%. But since it goes on another several months, you need to judge how we might do. Fair enough if people generally think it's that certain, I just think it's mental to think that we would go down 8 times out of 10. There's three points separating us from 12th.

 

Even if you think "we'll probably go down" that probably means about a 6.

 

6 is about right, but that's gone up from about 3 in the last few weeks. The takeover looks like it might come too late, and this squad as it stands looks like relegation material.

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TRon

TRon

Posted
Posted

It looks like the takeover isn't going to make any impact as far as big signings required are concerned so until I know better, I'll assume we are going to have to survive with this squad and a limited budget in January. Probably no different to the other clubs around us in the relegation spots, so not looking great tbh.

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afar

afar

Posted
Posted

Obviously not someone we should be targeting but getting the deals lined up now is an example of what we should be doing right now, if we want to get out this mess.

 

http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/42414457

 

I don't buy the "deals take a long time nowadays" line, there is nothing to stop us negotiating with the selling clubs and agents when the window is close with a view to conclude when it opens. I hope there are deals when on there way to being concluded already and we are not still in the "lets assess what we need" stage.

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Shearergol

Shearergol

Posted
Posted

Sure, that's fine. I'm not saying we won't go down, I'm just saying 80% chance seems excessive.

 

Who cares?

 

People posting in a thread about how likely we are to go down?

 

But who cares how you attribute a percentage to a perception? Honestly, it's the weirdest thing on this forum, which is saying a lot. If someone thinks there's an 80% change of us being relegated, how can you even argue with that?

 

I think there's a 10% chance of being shagged senseless by Rita Ora. Can you argue?

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Kaizero

Kaizero

Posted
Posted

Sure, that's fine. I'm not saying we won't go down, I'm just saying 80% chance seems excessive.

 

Who cares?

 

People posting in a thread about how likely we are to go down?

 

But who cares how you attribute a percentage to a perception? Honestly, it's the weirdest thing on this forum, which is saying a lot. If someone thinks there's an 80% change of us being relegated, how can you even argue with that?

 

I think there's a 10% chance of being shagged senseless by Rita Ora. Can you argue?

 

You can argue, as it's math. And math is definite. There will certainly be a percentage chance of you being shagged senseless by Rita Ora, but you need to look at a lot of different factors to figure out a percentage that's close to reality.

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TRon

TRon

Posted
Posted

Sure, that's fine. I'm not saying we won't go down, I'm just saying 80% chance seems excessive.

 

Who cares?

 

People posting in a thread about how likely we are to go down?

 

But who cares how you attribute a percentage to a perception? Honestly, it's the weirdest thing on this forum, which is saying a lot. If someone thinks there's an 80% change of us being relegated, how can you even argue with that?

 

I think there's a 10% chance of being shagged senseless by Rita Ora. Can you argue?

 

You can argue, as it's math. And math is definite. There will certainly be a percentage chance of you being shagged senseless by Rita Ora, but you need to look at a lot of different factors to figure out a percentage that's close to reality.

 

10% is wildly optimistic IMO. But there could be a 30% chance I'm wrong.

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Guest firetotheworks

Guest firetotheworks

Posted
Posted

fivethirtyeight has us at 45% likely to be relegated, fwiw.

 

Ignored them ever since the U.S election tbh, they were miles off every time. Similarly their UK election conclusion was made up of three scenarios, all of which covered pretty much every possibility. :lol:

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Kaizero

Kaizero

Posted
Posted

fivethirtyeight has us at 45% likely to be relegated, fwiw.

 

Ignored them ever since the U.S election tbh, they were miles off every time. Similarly their UK election conclusion was made up of three scenarios, all of which covered pretty much every possibility. :lol:

 

They're fairly spot on with their sports analysis, though. But yeah, they (and everyone else, tbf) fucked up the U.S. election.

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